OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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There's a 1/4 at NYC now. Based on how the forcing is forecast to translate across the region that band would slide just south of BOS. So I still think that's the zone you want to be in.
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It may take an extra hour or so to start, but once it saturates things will pick up quickly. I'm watching the obs around NYC now. Down to 3/4SM, which is fine, but unless we see some 1/2 and 1/4 it'll probably confine this to a mostly advisory event.
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Good idea to look at obs too. Despite the radar is just started dropping vis at JFK.
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Except ALY hasn't reported any snow yet.
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I mean the 00z NAM nest had rain in the Philly area before the heavier stuff got in. So I don't think that really indicates any bust trend.
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This isn't necessarily true. The FV3 portion of the new GFS is basically back end production. It makes it easier to upgrade the model in the future, and allows easier access to researchers who want to tinker with model core changes. The v16 is actually changing model physics of the GFS. So not an outright replacement, but improvements. Like coupling ocean and atmosphere to better produce wave guidance. Now the NAM, that is getting replaced.
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More or less my thoughts. The big problem is that with the parallel band is that underneath it will be great, but if you move it 25-50 miles your forecast looks pretty bad in two locations (where you thought the band would be, and where it moved to). Geology really screwed us on that one. That and the Green Mountains stealing all NH's upslope.
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Maybe the SE trends just keep going and he stays all snow.
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I'm just having a hard time justifying QPF much over 0.25" for most of my area. It's going to be hard to crank out 4-5 inches of snow that way.
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Like I said, kind of got boxed into it. I could have said eff it and put out the map I wanted but that's generally not what HQ likes to see.
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It's my SE zones where I've had a harder time. I essentially issued a forecast I don't believe in to make the map work.
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Standard pint can is 6" tall. Just FYI.
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I'm flipping tables here at the office making this forecast. Classic NAM.
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Well it's a matter of where that moisture is transported. In generally guidance is ENE instead of more northerly.
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Tuesday? I'm having a hard enough time wrangling my neighbors for tomorrow. But I honestly think a general 1-3 inland (3 being a stretch). I still think mainly sub-advisory everywhere, but will probably be forced into some for pretty map's sake.
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It's becoming pretty lonely on that island.
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Totally, I'm just seeing a lot of talk of high ratios (mostly internally not necessarily here) and just not buying it for several reasons outside of the main f-gen. Lots of forecast soundings have the lift above the DGZ, and that's not a great recipe for ratio success.
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I could see under the band someone getting a spike of good 15-20:1 snow for an hour or two, but overall I don't see a ton of support for a significant deviation from climo for most places.
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For PWM, I think so.
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Yeah, the NAM for instance really slides it east rather than pinwheeling it north like a more classic system. No real pivot. And parallel bands are notorious for the sharp northern gradient.
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I'm kind of thinking that the lack of a strong high to the Northeast is going to keep f-gen tied closer to the mid level lows rather than a classic NW Dendy band.
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HRRR is shorting this event. Hard.
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It even produces convective precip in the snow shield. But definitely think some of the NAM swings are due to orientation of all that convective QPF along the cold front.
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Producing quite a bit of convection.
