OceanStWx

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Are there any even remote chances of snow over next 2 weeks? Anything we can at least watch ? 

Your snow pack sublimate flake by flake?

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Dec 17?

I mean the Tarmac torches all the way to KTOL (in the summer) but they did four straight days in the teens that December.

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

So it does both heat and cold well?!? 

When the radiators mount up, I'm not sure I want ASH in my posse, but I do always go lower than guidance. 

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sure. ASH is a pit too. 

It's sneaky. Routinely 4ish degrees colder than Manch-vegas. 

10 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Probably seasmoke ?

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

33/32

With winds gusting over 30 kt, I would say you would need a larger temp difference than this to get sea smoke as tall as the picture shows. 30 degrees is about the minimum I would want to see to have it obscuring visibility with winds like this.

But the CC shows the rain/snow line south of the buoy location from the MOB 88D.

Speaking of the Gulf of Mexico, it sure looks like it is snowing 45 miles offshore.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42012

19 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

All goverment agencies must refer to this body of water as of The Gulf of America. NWS too. Going to be so confusing. 30 days to change I believe.

We await further guidance on that.

What makes it extra ridiculous is that it is only the continental shelf waters of the US to the seaward boundaries of Mexico and Cuba. So it's like less than half of the Gulf of Mexico would change names, and the rest stays the Gulf of Mexico. 

SNINCR 2/3 at MSY.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know where she gets these forecast lows from, but you can’t forecast for local rad pits either. 

The best we can do is a 1 km by 1 km grid. 

Just ask @alex, pretty sure his forecast grid goes from like 1500 ft to 2700 ft.

I was definitely on the southern end of the dry air up by @tamarack. Between the bands @dendrite and @tunafish were in.

I can see the weenies on CoCoRaHS though. We have the same liquid but everyone is an inch higher on snow. 

19 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Annual reminder:  nobody knows where the fook "here" is for 90% of the posters that reference it as their location.  

 

6.4" total, 0.49" liquid for Portland, ME.

Not often I get beat that bad by the “Jetport”

Final total of 4.6” on 0.36” liquid. As we expected.

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sticking to the sheets.

Congrats?

37 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That map seems different than this one 

Start times are different. This one is 7 am to 7 am, the other is 7 pm to 7 pm.

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Where are you at on seasonal totals?

A little more than I thought 7.7” 

Just now, dendrite said:

EC looks decent up here with the banding. 3-6/4-7 still on track. 

High end advisory/low end warning is going to double my season total. No complaints.

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lmao at the RGEM. Please don’t ever mention that model again. We knew.

It’s because it’s not an arctic front anymore, otherwise it would’ve nailed it.

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

yes atmosphere is cold above the surface
 

But - it’s a fast mover, ground will be warm and surface temps warm at onset. I’m concerned overall ratios and white rain, before the flip to good rates. 
 

I’m expecting 4” imby. And more confidence it ends up lower than higher. 3-4” highest confidence.

 

The ground is warm? We’re actually making some real frost depth up here right now with the lack of snow cover and cold temps. Ground temps aren’t going to limit anything.

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, Delayed but not denied.

I just bake them into the forecast. It is pretty routine to see models overamplify in the short term (days 2 or 3) and then in the last 24 hours just slide a little or flatten out. 

So then I am left sitting at the WFO with the snow totals...

Scooter might let his kids out of the basement, it's starting to converge on a nice forcing signal around his backyard.

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

let me guess, NWS only hired people with degrees?

In theory you don't have to have a meteorology degree, but there is a list of required coursework that more or less means you would have received a BS in meteorology or atmospheric science. 

12 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

then can you give me insight as to how Albany sucks so bad?

Speaking not of ALY, but the NWS more broadly, I think there is a tendency to get sucked in by the QPF. The pressures of short staffing combined with added duties beyond the forecast are leading to more and more step by step building of the forecast. It's great for duplication and amending the forecast, but it can lead to less critical thinking at times. For instance, does the QPF max location make physical sense? Is the storm moving slow enough for widespread double digit snowfall? etc.

That's why I like coming here and talking about the weather. It forces me to think about why I'm doing what I'm doing in the grids. And when in doubt I can always start high and adjust higher based off the KFS.

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

Oceanstwx is the one who knocks...

I already have the hair.

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of areas out east will start a bit slow. Prob a few rain drops or white rain at the onset while initial banding is west and then I’d expect it to all of the sudden go nuts. 

If you take a look at the latest NAM/GFS in Bufkit, even out Scooter's way it's like an hour of maybe catpaws and then it starts ripping.