OceanStWx

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Install season is June earliest and the norm is July.

I'm ready. When I work overnights this time of year and sleep during the day, the closed door and sun beating on the roof can get my bedroom up into the 72-73 degree range. No thanks. 

I flip those heat pumps over to cooling.

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

You know the severity of winter storms is just different out there.  A place where they cancel/downgrade a Blizzard Warning because only 8-14” (lolli 20”) is left and winds have decreased to 45mph (120mph at the ridges)… it reads like, things are improving, only a foot of snow with 45mph winds are expected at lake level for the inhabited areas.  No biggie, just some brief periods of poor visibility are possible.

Clearly nobody paid attention to the blizzard warning anyway. 

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Makes sense a little bit, but in what world would a forecaster term 18”+ snowfall in a period as “snow showers?”  It happens a lot out there.

I guess the question is why would you say snow showers at 2-4” accumulation and then use the same at 24-36” in a given period?  What differentiates them?

I don't have a good answer for that. That's why I think it's probably more of a grid based issue. Like the software can get really angry when you are trying to isolate individual grid boxes that don't connect in some way. 

6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Instead of "Heavy at Times" it should just be "Heavy all of the Time."

On an aside, I've always wondered why most of the western forecasts use "Snow Showers" instead of just "Snow".... maybe  @OceanStWx can shed some light on how the grids are populated out there verses the Midwest and East.  Because it does not matter the accumulation, most of the mountain forecasts out west all use "Snow Showers" as the description.

Today: Snow Showers.  Four feet worth of Snow Showers.

That's really a forecaster discretion kind of thing. I'm not aware of any policy that states all offices should use "showers" out there, but I know around here we generally try and focus on what will public perception be.

Like if we're going to upslope and I have likely PoP, and there are always flakes in the air, the public is going to say it's snowing, not there are snow showers. So I'll change all wx at 55% PoP or greater to stratiform. 

It's possible the terrain out there is so unwieldly with the grids, that they do showers for ease.

On 2/25/2024 at 10:49 AM, CoastalWx said:

Anvil cirrus season fast approaches.

When this horizon

becomes this reality

17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

During the typical work week I’m working out at 4:30AM.  That is psycho 

As long as the glass stays full, it is a type of workout lifting a beer to my mouth. 

I can get on some good runs, but inevitably midnight shifts derail it. Then again shiftwork makes my life always kind of feel that way, starting over every 18 days. 

32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Now that’s insane.

16 minutes ago, kdxken said:

You must be in a warm spot. Raymond station has five below 10° for January alone.

But it's impressive when you consider the siting for his thermometer!

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is a riot

What's the opposite of a CJ for Scooter and Ray?

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Only thing that looks exciting is the impending warmth. 

I look forward to the 40s from now through Memorial Day. 

11 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just looking at wiz’s chart BDL is hitting 70 over the last 20 years just as frequently as the 1960-1980 period.

as far as 80 . BDL hit 80 4 times before 1990 3 times since 1990. 
 

off first glance 60s seem more prevalent recently 

 

That makes sense. 70 and 80 are still extreme for that time of year, and will still happen fairly infrequently. But 60 is much closer to normal and so with gradual warming you would expect more of those temps to show up. 

The tails are still the tails, but the meat of the temp distribution moves closer to the 60s.

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Squalls of bore

Seems like maybe the low levels were just a little too dry and perhaps a little too much instability (graupel) to really make these squalls intense. 

On 2/13/2024 at 8:54 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

 

And that’s the reason. I actually thought this to myself today. When places that they don’t have warned get warning snows.. they try to hide and mask it. It’s all about verification for their individual offices. Big brother (govt) is watching. Ask @OceanStWx. Let’s see if he’ll comment 

How did I get roped into this goat rodeo of an event? 

For starters that map is primarily compiled using CoCoRaHS and Coop reports, which are typically 7am-ish. So there was some settlings that occurred overnight prior to reporting. If you include those "official" obs with the totals closer to 18 inches the map kind of looks like one of Ginxy's dog turds because of weird bullseyes. Nothing nefarious, because for BOX a miss is a miss. They'll take the false alarm for the original warning which was cancelled before verifying, then take the missed event for not upgrading the advisory once it was clear warning amount were going to happen. It seems like they just decided to go down with the ship on this one.

There can definitely be too much concern with verification sometimes, but it is also the only way we can really track our performance objectively. And we're also required by Congress to track certain metrics, as that's the only way they understand our performance. Some offices definitely try and sneak some past. You see it far more often with tornadoes, tweaking the start time so that it falls under a warning (even if the radar evidence points towards the warning being late).

Both the NAM and GFS have solutions that don't appear to my eye that they should have as sharp a cut off on snowfall on the cold side of the precip shield as some of the clowns are showing. Probably goes without saying as they typically aren't dynamic in snowfall ratio.

Forecast soundings show that the column around the chicken coops is mostly around -10C, serviceable for dendrites (and Dendrite). There are also some steeper lapse rates in the region of lift that could give a little boost. All in all it looks like a higher ratio potential on the north side, that could smooth out the gradient in snow totals. 

NAM still trying to give some congrats to Dendrite. Big band, subby, and then central NH?

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Stratosphere is getting interesting on guidance too. Some support showing up for another big SSW like last year in Mid-Feb (this helped set the stage for the first couple weeks of March last year where he had several threats including the interior elevation bomb on Mar 13-14. )
 

The difference this year is that if we get another SSW like last year, we won’t be fighting nearly as hostile as a Pacific and the AO already looks to be negative. So it just may lock things in place longer which is what you’d hope for if you want more than a short period of favorability. We’ll know a lot more about the SSW chances in the next 5-7 days. 

Let's have some snow cover for the eclipse and watch temps tank.

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can't wait for anvil cirrus.

Smashing F5 on the SPC site at 06z to see the upgrade from general thunder to marginal. 

Definitely top 5 worst drive to or from work. I would drive in February 2013 any day of the week vs this crap.

A couple points the towns just gave up on treatment and the weight of the car was enough to start sliding off to the side of the convex roads.

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Are you serious? You need to relax and understand the vibe here. 

I don't know, a Scooter melt sometimes precedes a nice pattern. 

58 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm old enough to remember trying to sell cold gross hot dogs when the stadium was half full to a bunch of drunks (my first job with an actual paycheck) in the old Schaeffer Stadium.  I remember 1-15 and 2-14 seasons.

 

While I love to watch them being competitive, my cup runneth over.

 

You will never see this again in the NFL

I was a tee boy that season. I think Toys-R-Us had a contest and you could run out and grab the tee after the first kick off. I think it was the Browns game I got the honor. 

It wasn't going to last forever, but I did think Bill would walk away. Even though this was "mutual" I think he got led out the door. I do think the team underestimates what a draw he was. Players whether they liked him or not always viewed him as a lottery ticket to a Super Bowl. With that gone, I don't think people are knocking down the doors to come to Foxboro.

11 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

The situation/erosion might enhance the damage on Friday night/Saturday, even though that storm probably won't pack the same punch.   

But the tides are also higher. So the forecast is actually very similar to this event's observed levels and potential for even higher.

Still getting damage reports rolling in from the coast, and this is probably the top coastal flood event in my time at GYX. 

You see the occasional house drop into the ocean down in Mass, but I can't recall that happening up here until today.

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That might have been before all the kegstands in college.

Now i just merely have my memory

Nothing like a kegstand of cherry wheat to jog the snow memories loose.

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Willl does it from memory even years before he was born. He's a weather savant.

Live look at Will processing the latest event.

4 hours ago, dryslot said:

Dejavu on this next one from last nights.

Very similar look to the EFI. Hits all the same spots.

23 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This one may have damaging winds over 60 on the backside out of NW vs the one tonight out of SE 

This one does look windier on the backside, but no. Nothing I'm more willing to sell than high wind warning from the northwest.

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

New Moon Goon FTW

Nah, that's the next one. 

With the beach defenses blown away from this one, I'm not liking the early forecasts for the weekend.