OceanStWx

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

NAM bufkit for PWM early Thursday morning.

This is a true blizzard. Blizzard for the ages

My biggest concern is the near surface freezing temps. Is that enough to change the character of the snow, because otherwise it should be pretty dry stuff. 

There's also a real chance we can dynamically cool the surface even more when we toss a bunch of precip into the column given how cold it is just off the deck. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

05z is midnight, correct?

04z now.

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe several inches here about 5mi or saw N of KLWM.

Maybe even some accumulating snow too.

Extreme Forecast Index looking tasty from the overnight runs. 

QPF is pretty meh on this product, but that makes sense because 2"+ QPF in April is not unheard of. Plowable snow in April is much more rare, and so we're getting pretty uniform high EFI numbers. Most anomalous near the coast, where you wouldn't expect much April accumulation normally. The Shift of Tails black lines show your forecast potential, the highest of the high end members. A value of 2 is pretty good, and shows the biggest boom potential is just north of that mid level warm front. Congrats Dendrite?

Looking at LWM, they drop blow 0C at 950 mb like Wednesday afternoon and stay there for the duration. Now the models all have it mixing thanks to some 700 mb warm air initially, but by midnight-ish Wednesday night the whole column is cold enough for snow.

I'll say, there is really good lift in the snow growth zone around midnight Wednesday night. But the DGZ is also at like 500 mb. That always gives me pause.

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, too easy...won't bother

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The bolded is a tough miss by a ski area’s contracted plow service.  A huge miss.  Contracts would be in jeopardy at most areas if you aren’t dug out and plowed by arrival time in the morning.  Especially late season when early plowing bids may start coming in not long afterward following the season.

You need those parking lots dialed on busy post-storm days to maximize parking and efficiency.  Front end loaders, dump trucks with plows, the tractors with 7 foot wheels… every tool needs to be out on those days.

I guess we had to call our plow contract in too. Mid shift ended up parking on the side of the road.

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm an amateur...which implicitly makes learning my primary motive for doing this. You can't learn from errors unless you own and accept them....only cheating myself if I don't. 

A lot of pros could stand to use that mindset too. Post analysis of events you fumbled are way more useful than anything else you pick up along the way.

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It was, The carport survived clearing it every hour, The only thing we missed was the zr and i'm glad we didn't get any of it.

Very suck. Much bad here.

I’ve got as much as 0.33” radial and shotgun blasts are going off all through the neighborhood. Caught a nice transformer flash while I was out measuring.

Really confirms that 0.75” ASOS measured flat ice is the right number around here for an ice storm warning.

Got the kids down just in time for the power and internet to go out. Genny’s running but can’t watch a damn thing.

Between snow and sleet I’m at 6.1” today (0.5” pure sleet), and up to 0.2” radial ice now. Power has flickered four times now.

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe somebody could explain this to me…that 10% map says, 10% chance of higher snowfall.  Is that higher snowfall than that map is showing(the 29” for Caribou)?  I kind of read it as theirs only a 10% chance of that 29” occurring.  But the wording says there’s a 10% chance of more than 29”’ lol. 

This is the correct interpretation. 10% of the time snowfall will be greater than the number shown, or conversely a 90% chance that snowfall will be 29" or less. 

Ideally, 80% of the time your snowfall should fall between the high number and low number.

Just now, dryslot said:

Are you going to be moving to the next gen dilithium crystals soon? 

We're a unique site. Our inflation building was heated, but not to the safety standards you need when generating hydrogen. You probably could see the mushroom cloud from KLEW.

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jesus look at those temps in Canada near the lakes this morning.  -30s . So much for no cold in Canada. Also too bad @OceanStWxGYX doesn't do upper air soundings anymore as its near record territory for late March

We don't? News to me. 

We ran out of helium a couple of weeks ago, but we launching again now. Pretty soon we'll be able to turn the hydrogen generator back on too.

Less of a squall now and more of an inverted trof as the coastal starts to take over. Just going to chuck up the advisories. 

Pit2 FTW

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lol. It’s amazing how quickly it runs through hr 384.

Seriously though that is one of the big use cases the NWS is excited about anyway. The ability to run large ensembles quickly and frequently.

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This Fourcast Net group or whatever they are can be run on the GEFS. I think stormvista did this. The AI version of the GEFS finished in 4 minutes lol. Basically renders the old school GEFs useless from a trader point of view.

Some would argue it's always been useless. 

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Silicone. What a bunch of dummies.

Everyone knows you can get away with it by filling it with bird poop.

No lies detected.

Best thunderstorms of the year right now?

Just now, mreaves said:

Aw crap. My mailbox has been decapitated. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Inversion lowers as 850 winds increase. Probably a lot of 45-55mph.

When you end up well mixed, it also mixes out the big wind maxes aloft. Always seems to settle into that 45-55 mph range on the big westerly events.

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Wind's been howling up here at Pit2 since before my pre-dawn wakeup.  Highest gust so far at IWI of 44.

44 is a big gust for IWI. That place is a wind pit.

1 hour ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Euro is out on its own right now. Tossing >4” here far and wide until I’m wiping it off my car. 

LOL 06z GFS spitting out 19 inches for Rumford. 18 inches in 12 hours.