OceanStWx

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But that’s why they(NWS) make the big bucks. Gotta step up when the call is difficult. 

Actually so much more of the job now is explaining to decision makers what the realistic goal posts are for an event like this. So you have to be willing to put it out there when the alarm bells are ringing. The secret is that the EM community understands what it means when you offer a 90th percentile forecast.

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Over 1.0" in my hood... so much for maybe 0.1" for the event.

BOX fail...everyone fail...

Biggest bust is definitely near the MA/NH border.

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I didn’t see any forecast calling for 1-2” along the MA/VT border.  
 

Don't worry, your QPF deficit will pop up in a couple months.

17 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Day 11 here.  Noticed the lavender shade when it was rising as well.  Very cool.

Sprinkled on me out at the firepit on Sunday night, so I snuck a T in there.

Central Park ripped off 1.96" in an hour. That's going to bring some Phil every time.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR looks more like euro now with it going nuts with inv trough and then more of a ccb look. I could buy that. As far as where it sets up, I can't see it shifting that far NE. Maybe SW CT? 

That's the thing, if you can do kind of a Norlun-like setup with tropical rain you can really run up the totals.

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What happens if we get a foot of rain for Brooklyn and Queens?

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In honesty ... I don't follow him.  Is there some history of impropriety and stuff ?

I think that's fair to say. 

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Same location as before? 

Hair east, but similar enough.

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Even he admitted that he wasn’t sure if he should be sharing the info. 

At this point I'm not sure Schill gets the benefit of doubt. 

Kind of like the Euro during the winter. 

Well 12z HREF really didn't back down, and in fact ramped up the threat I would say. Now seeing areas of 7-10 inches in 6 hours for the max product.

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well CT is in the 7 on that index…that’s up there too according to that graphic. 

Sorry, an 8 on the black lines not the shading. The black lines are an indication of what the highest ensemble members are showing. The shading shows roughly how many members are forecasting something bigger than the model climate.

So big shading numbers make a soaker more likely, and the black lines as the numbers get bigger make a truly extreme event more likely.

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Do any other globals…CMC, UKMET show these incredible rains?  I know Euro is very wet. 

EPS EFI is pretty juiced. Good news is that the flooding in Greece was like an 8 on this index, so it is unlikely to be that bad. 

GEFS has a pretty good signal for >90th percentile mean QPF as well.

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Chris  

As long as Dendrite gets the blame for my bad calls too.

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Why is this thing tomorrow and Saturday so juiced up? What’s giving this system so much fuel? I mean that HRRR had like 8+ inches here.  And double that to the SW. Holy Toledo. 

Closed low, good forcing, strong east component to mid level winds, lots of moisture. 

Pretty impressive to see a HREF mean of 3-4 inches in 24 hours.

The max totals usually do a pretty good job of picking out the max reported amount (duh), but even falling a few inches short would be 

On 9/24/2023 at 7:51 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Happy Happy birthday @OceanStWx,great met for sure. GYX one of the toughest varied FA in New England 

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Only 42mph at IOSN3. They get that with a sea gull fart.

We average about 6 storm warnings (48 kt) per year, so I would say we have quite a few more chances to top that.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This is it

Early prep for winter backlash disappointment. 

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Gust to 83 in Maine?

Kilometers per hour? 

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Exactly my thinking.  Hard to capture a storm 150 miles from Bermuda and hook it back into New England. It needs to track much closer to the Carolinas.

You really could've punted when it was 1000 miles east of Puerto Rico. From that point forward the probabilities of a New England landfall based on storm position haven't really changed.

To get probabilities much above 1 in 4, you really have to scrape HAT.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Aren't they doing something with the euro op too? Like incorporating that into the ensemble and not having it stand alone?

Wouldn't shock me. It's kind of a waste of computer resources at this point.

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep the model upgrade ruined it.

I think much of the effort is pouring in ensembles. Improving those and creating new tools for visualization. Increasingly I think deterministic models are becoming just another ensemble member which can ping around between the goal posts. 

NCEP is moving towards a paradigm with a 60 hour hi-res model and beyond that moving more towards the ensemble space.

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

When's the last time Maine had a landfalling TC? Can at least root for that. But I'm with Dom. Just a PIA ruining another Saturday.

3 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

1969, nice, Hurricane Gerta.

TC, Bob made landfall as a tropical storm, but hurricane is Gerda.