OceanStWx

Just now, powderfreak said:

That’s my issue too, can’t see over the Spine so it’s hitting 4-5,000ft up… but you see 60kts up there, I can see how as a forecaster you aren’t willing to risk not mixing that down.

It gets wild on a day like today too. Which storm do you deep dive on first? 

1 minute ago, WhiteLawns said:

I just don’t understand then I guess. according to both reflectivity and velocity radar I was in the strongest section of the storm where I was. Warren/Morris area at the time. With maybe 15-20mph gusts. 

It's a tough spot for radar coverage. You're talking maybe 4-5000 ft elevation of the lowest radar beam, so there's never a guarantee it's reaching the ground the same way it looks on radar. 

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol, that’s what some people around Vermont think a severe thunderstorm is judging by comments on BTV’s social pages.

Like if it’s strobing lightning and heavy rain, maybe a gust front, it’s a severe storm.

By actual severe definitions storms in New England have to be over-warned at an extremely high rate. 

I would say more over-warned in area than in severity. Usually the warning text is pretty accurate for the max expected hail/wind anywhere in the warning, but it's usually such a localized area.

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I had that happen at my condo in Dorchester. Was on my laptop. Flash boom...thought my condo got hit. Neighbor ran outside said he felt a shock as he was doing some plumbing. I looked up and noticed the arcing from the pole in front of my condo. It hit the insulators to the top wires. To this day, never felt anything like it. Like a flash bomb went off in my condo with my ears against a cannon.

I can remember sitting at an intersection in Sea Isle City, NJ during a storm 30 years ago and right across the street a bolt hit a condo and blew back the top of the roof. Went from six to midnight.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

57kts LWM

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Where else gets routinely exciting weather year round?

The thing is each area of the country can get more extremes but all the extreme events don’t happen at the same place over and over.  So while it feels like you are missing out, just move somewhere else and watch 10 months of boring weather happen… while still watching extreme events happen around the country where you are not.

Western Kansas, utterly breathless 2 months during spring, toaster bath the rest of the year.

18 hours ago, tunafish said:

Not when a groundhog eats all your early plantings so you plant more in July.  Picking 3-5 cucumbers every day now, and to my surprise we'll have enough for pickling.

The dews did manage to claim an unlikely victim this year - about 25 heads of garlic had to go straight to the compost.  After drying we stored them in an area of the basement that was not getting enough airflow from the dehumidifier.  Sucks, but we salvaged about 20 heads.  Enough to last until early Spring, but not the full time until next years harvest.  

The more lawn we turn into plant-able soil each year, the less impact these (what I consider to be) preventable mishaps have.  We sheet-mulched an additional 100 square feet of lawn in August, which will be ready to plant into in the Spring.  Plan is to do another 100 next summer for 2025 planting.  Less useless lawn and more food, flowers, and other native plants - not for everyone but that's the name of the game for us.  One of these days I'll post pictures of the 5 year transformation, but they really don't do it justice.

It won't be long before I'm building something like this for myself.

I'm up to 80 sq ft in beds, and another 100 or so in a corner garden mainly for flowers and fruit trees.

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm just asserting my thoughts. Not trying to pee in anyone cheerios, and honestly....I hope I am wrong lol.

Just using climo tracks a storm at Lee's position has about a 25% chance of hitting land anywhere in the US at any intensity, dropping to about 15% for a hurricane, and 10% for a major. 

If you want to talk CT specifically, 5% chance of hitting at any intensity. 

The interesting thing is that the probabilities of a New England landfall of any intensity don't start to increase about 10-15% until a storm is near the coast north of HAT. Also the old adage at BOX was that they don't worry about a tropical system until it's in the Bahamas, and there is a little pocket of 20% north of the Bahamas. I would say a 1 out of 5 chance of a landfall 3-4 days away is a good time to start the briefings.

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

@OceanStWx needs to fit that into an AFD with freshet

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

79/74. Low was 72.

Hope nobody uninstalled the multi-ply TP from the bathroom.

9 hours ago, rimetree said:

Our garden is having it's best year ever. We have a small raised bed roughly 2'x5' to accommodate a mix of tomatoes and cukes, but there's plenty to pick every day. Some zucchini and summer squash but those haven't done as well. Guessing we're also picking 1/2 to 1 pint of raspberries a day...saving a little money on produce lately.

Mine has pretty much done all its work in the last month. June just hit pause on everything. 

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

When does a water year run?

For this calendar year I’m at 41” of liquid

10/1 to 9/30

It tries to capture the time period so that the surface water is attributable to the same water year's precipitation (i.e. snowmelt is complete). For our purposes it does mean that the majority of the snowfall season is contained in the water year (except maybe MWN and places like that). 

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m so done with rain. I hope it steins here.

Real good chance I end the water year with more liquid than I get inches of snow this winter (closing in on 60 inches now).

I would have to dig in a little deeper to see if there was any MCV or something like that (didn’t see much evidence of the vort max that early), but 0-1 km shear was 20-25 kt. Significant tornadoes become more likely as you push 20 kt.

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is legit high end EF2 at least 

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1692559356531798492?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Loss of shingles is upper end 100 mph, trees are sketchy damage indicators at best, I’ve never really seen them rated higher than 100 mph unless they’ve been debarked (and then you’ll have better damage indicators around). 

Possibly a fourth TDS near Avon, MA.

Hope they got to finish their morning coffee at BOX before the warning t-shirt cannon started.

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Friends in Attleboro and Norton with kids sheltering in place at camp freaking out and asking me what is going on. Looks like they should be OK other than strong winds which looks to have just passed.

I’d still watch that tip of the comma. Looks interesting still.

Maybe another Valley Falls crossing into Mass. Warm front GW.

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

looks like another TDS near North Providence 

Agreed.

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Have to be careful of the windmills are right there on radar.

Yeah, Johnston is pretty bad from BOX, but this one moved with the storm. I think the giveaway is ZDR. It’s chaotic with turbines but near zero in the TDS.

Nice TDS for Scituate, RI

12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I am not knowledgeable on this but is this CC OFFICIANT showing debris @OceanStWx

I see folks have already confirmed this is tornado debris.

But for those who want to learn you have to use CC in conjunction with other radar variables to confirm. You'll want to pair this CC up with differential reflectivity (ZDR), reflectivity (Z), and velocity (V or SRV). So the drop in CC must be collocated with sufficient Z (> 20 dBZ would be ideal if not higher), a V couplet, and near 0 ZDR (debris tumbles like hail and looks neither tall or wide to the radar). 

Now one caveat is that Z and CC are sampled by the radar first, and then V. So it is possible that the couplet may be displaced slightly ahead of the TDS because of storm motion (especially in fast moving storms), but it shouldn't be far away.

A commonly misidentified TDS is in the inflow region of supercells. Dust, bugs, etc. are all very low in CC too, so a quick check of Z will show that dBZs aren't high enough to be a true TDS. 

Mini spinnies everywhere!

But the best looking one is definitely near BED.

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

These little showers do have that kidney bean-ish look to them. 

Forecast hodographs look great, so it's no wonder the radar is taking that same curved shape. 

That little cell between 495 and 128 is definitely spinning. SPC mesoanalysis says we're not capped right now, but the question is do we have enough low level instability to speed up the updraft and stretch it.