OceanStWx

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

My strawberries are like yours, 10 days or so of sunshine in 7 weeks is not going to cut it, I have one in a pot that has no blossoms, My other one that's in a 35 gal container has yielded some small fruit but nothing special.

The only fruit I got came from the flower buds that were there when the were delivered. 

Even on a "dry" day like today, it looks like my house will get clipped by this rogue isolated shower.

37 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Those are the Patriot Variety which is an early and large blueberry, I have 6 plants, 2-Patriots, 2-Chandlers and 2-Elliot's, The Patriots are early, Chandler is mid and the Elliot's are a late smaller variety, This is one of the Elliot's.

The Patriots are large and delicious. We have two plus two Northland. The strawberries have suffered this year though. Too much rain, and not enough sun to get them going.

12 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Anyone been to a Portland Seadogs game? Recommend?

I think it's a nice ballpark to watch a game. Solid beer selection too.

Maybe another TDS by Maynard

Nice MCD with a 60% chance of a tornado watch for parts of the area. It's been a solid 2-3 years for most people since the last one.

Maybe a TDS near Shirley, MA? Sure looks right at 1057z.

I'll say without any knowledge of the air mass, the radar velocity sure looks like a tropical cyclone feeder band.

Kudos to the BOX techs who got the call around 2 AM that the radar went down, and currently have it back up and running.

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Happy to stand down if you don't want a separate thread. 

Nah, I just hit send before I saw we were splitting it out. I wanted to make sure it was included here too.

Just added this thought in the other thread before this was created.

Big difference between last week and this upcoming event.

Last week had low level winds intersecting the boundary, creating a more widespread rainfall pattern.

Tomorrow the low level winds parallel the boundary, which will be a recipe for narrow but potentially significant rainfall distribution.

7 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

Not seeing a whole lot downstream on radar.

Some models are quicker than others, but essentially the back edge of that forcing is forecast to only reach BDL by 12z. So there's a lot of potential time for storms to back build.

Just now, powderfreak said:

What are some of the station rainfall totals and duration around there?

Thats high end stuff.

There's a PWS right near that that did like 6 inches in 4 hours. That's pretty close to a 1000 yr return period.

10 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/web_pages/ero/ero.shtml

Maybe I am wrong 

That's actually showing the progression of the forecast for today's threat. From slight to moderate.

Just now, Hoth said:

Yeah, could be. I don't recall any others.

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

2 years ago we had one in CT at least. 

Data on that only goes back to 2019, but just the one high risk for New England. Until tomorrow.

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Covered wagons floating down CT river ?

Your wagon has tipped over while fording the river.  You lose 500 bullets, and 200 pounds of food.

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

6 plus about 25 miles away might take a drive if it keeps up 

I think BOX might be running hot there, but GYX is way too low too. ENX is probably a decent compromise around 4.5 to 5 inches so far. Nice 500 year event.

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wonder if the flood threat shifts east? Maybe it spares the worst in VT for now until tomorrow when Synoptics help them more. 

There has been a bit of a messenger shuffle in the heaviest QPF this evening when you dprog/dt the HRRR.

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know that area well from traveling to my dads in New Milford . Lots of rivers, bridges and low lying areas outside the hills. Might be 1-100 year type deal there 

Already maxed out at 200 year recurrence interval in Litchfield County on the in-house AWIPS display. 

MRMS estimating 4.5 inches or so in the last 3 hours, which is between 200 and 500 year average recurrence for that part of CT.

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Is there some particular technique or just tech that's behind that assessment - other than synoptic experience? 

I realize there's an odd-ball anomalous buzz saw setting up N of Lake Superior and the non-hydrostats align parallel flow, so yeah...training can be inferred and so forth. But I couldn't count on one hand over the course of a weather year how many times I see a parallel flow - why is this D5 so ominous? 

lol, it's liable to be right just because I'm asking but still

Honestly don't know the specifics of how they craft those forecasts, but generally using a probabilistic approach with models/ensembles. I would hazard a guess that some comparison of QPF to flash flood guidance is used to determine areas most prone to potential flash flooding.

Day 5 slight risk, don't see that too often.

Sorry Wiz, that's for rain not storms.

21 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Wow. 7.38” here. 

Today was my 4th day without measurable precip this month.