weathertree4u

I would go crazier than I already am if I lived and died by every model run, again trends; personally, I have no expectation that we score 6 weeks of cold and snow - we live in the South after all - however, I am more hopeful than most years that we can score a storm or two in the next two weeks and change.

I think we should be looking, not to say that you are not, at the trends that are being portrayed with modeling, for example, what we know seemingly for sure is that it will get colder around the 5th; the pattern is just simply too complex I think at this time to expect modeling to all be on the same page, just my opinion.

Is that -45 just above the Great Lakes?

Same occurring in the TN Valley area - north of Nashville here - looks like the same pattern to continue - got to break this pattern of poor winters - this is like the third one in a row where winter is MIA

My question is - why does the GFS show something almost night and day different?

Seen this movie before - major changes telegraphed in the LR - then when it gets to the timeframe modeled - the pattern of persistence is the one that wins out - hope I am wrong but just seen this too many times before.

Not liking, not that any of us would, the wet pattern that seems to be being telegraphed by long range modeling, not to mention the severe threats!

Can tell a difference in the air mass this morning versus yesterday morning, most certainly feels like a late Spring morning, hope we can get a pass on this one too!

Yea it is not a good look on the models that is for sure. Do not know where we are going to put the couple inches we should get this weekend. No telling what would happen if we got that as modeled

Yea was over middle tn yesterday runs imagine will move around until get closer

Not good, not good at all

CFS seems bring heavy rain back to region through March

That has been trend though

Personally speaking, I do not think that the current time period will be the big issue. Heading into the Spring, I feel like we are in a bad place. North of Nashville we got close to 4" yesterday evening which, of course, as in the East TN area, flash flooding. We need a large scale pattern change, I mean large scale. I dont want a drought but seems like we are over due for one!

Yea, won't take much blow allot timber down

That has been trend though

Just do not honestly see how this has a good ending no matter how it plays out over the next week

Something off the modeling this Winter or maybe it is just me or a little of both.

Exactly! That is what I am concerned about. Personally moved from winter tracking a few days ago but knowing what I know about Spring in the TN Valley, we could be entering uncharted territory. For example, last Spring, the area just to the north of where I am got 5"- 6" of rain in a thunderstorm - May I believe - within a half hour, the large creek near me - Upper Station Camp, that flows into Old Hickory Lake - was out of its banks. Now, throw that same storm into the area this May and I honestly do not know what would happen!

I thought that I saw someone posting in here yesterday that they saw a pattern change in the extended. I am not seeing it, am I looking in the wrong place? By end of the week, I would think the region would be uniquely positioned to be experiencing flooding, not sure we are to 2010 levels yet but we have got to be getting close.

The amount of rain for the month being depicted by the CFS is nothing short of amazing

I was thinking the same thing. I dont follow the stuff as closely as some in the forum but could tell yesterday early on that things in reality were not modeled correctly. Was a great air mass but could have used a little rain!

Excellent point. The physics behind the models I know is way over my head, simply amazing that we can take an educated guess at it at all. Plus when you factor in the things that probably are not factored in like low solar and continued volcanic activity, heck, we might as well flip a coin!

Which is generally why the weather is just so fascinating. Not sure whether we will ever develop the capability to forecast much better than we are now honestly!

Have been seeing some brief mentions for next Winter for a El Nino Modoki, is this an indication of that as well and or what are your thoughts?