Jump to content

Alfoman

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    240

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Alfoman

  1. Alfoman
  2. Alfoman
    Every trend you see on your screen is the wrong trend we would want lol
  3. Alfoman
    Trying to figure out why the Euro ended up with that surface translation even with more west ticks at 500: Looks like we just end up more positively tilted for longer (you can see the difference below at hr 87) and there is slightly worse spacing with the kicker out west. This one is going to drive us crazy with small shifts like that making the difference in the end.
  4. Alfoman
    GFS first taketh and wrongeth, then GFS giveth
  5. Alfoman
    Lord Almighty (not done yet either)
  6. Alfoman
    GFS has not wavered from this trend in 24 hours...
  7. Alfoman
    Even if we miss out on the bulk of the coastal, we only need a few tenths of an inch of QPF to really generate some fun/meaningful powder given the arctic air being pulled in behind the storm
  8. Alfoman
    We got the CMC/E, ICON, and GFS/GEFS to improve run-over-run, no need to be perfect D5 as we very clearly found out this past week. Lots of ways to make this work even on a smaller scale than a HECS/BECS event like the 6z euro
  9. Alfoman
    That's why I caution this is delicate setup even if we eventually do get the low bombing off the coast at some point. Those smaller differences up top translate into huge surface-level shifts
  10. Alfoman
    Boston has a chance to clear a top 10 storm for them, Boston to NYC could clear 3-4 inches of sleet when its all said and done, Crippling ice from Viriginia to Texas - very memorable storm overall. Pictures out of Oxford, MS are insane...
  11. Alfoman
    Pixie flakes in the middle of pouring sleet in DC proper...just an absolutely wild storm My hips are on fire after a long morning Jebwalk...this stuff is not an easy stroll
  12. Alfoman
    New Euro actually keeps the 700 mb column at 0 C or under in the district and above until between 20-21z on Sunday versus 17z on 6z suite
  13. Alfoman
    Euro Uptick on front thump (12z left, 6z right)
  14. Alfoman
  15. Alfoman
    So do I but damn it do I want to see the GFS get a win here. Just would be so interesting (and on brand) to have it slow down and separate the baja energy a little more each run for it to just wildly swing towards the Euro's depiction all of a sudden within 60 hours.
  16. Alfoman
    For last week's storm, GFS was the model to overamplify around 60-90 hours out only to scale back some as we got closer versus Euro and CMC were way less diggy with the shortwave. A blend sounds about right
  17. Alfoman
    That cutoff being 30-40 miles from DC proper would be an absolute nail biting nowcast the day of the storm. Nice and easy isn't as exciting, as they say!
  18. Alfoman
    DC Proper loses the 850/700 mb temp profile battle from 0Z Monday to 9Z Monday but we're right on the edge of the transition line via 700 mb map starting at 18Z Sunday. We have roughly 1.2-1.3 QPF before that time and an additional .2-.3 after that. Really on the edge though by the middle of Sunday.
  19. Alfoman
    Just some small differences I'd say...
  20. Alfoman
    I'd call that a trend
  21. Alfoman
    Not sure what the ratio of freezing rain and sleet would be in this given scenario but 12z EURO with monster FRZRN totals
  22. Alfoman
    Saw this elsewhere but looks like sounding flights are planned
  23. Alfoman
    Actually think that is the fault of our NS SW as it digs deeper over the Midwest but moves a bit faster than 6Z did which led to a messier downstream phase
  24. Alfoman
    0Z had around .97 QPF in the city, so a very slight step back but mostly just noise
  25. Alfoman
    Agreed - looks like the GFS came in even stronger initially with that high as it's diving down (1051 mb)
×
×
  • Create New...