Alfoman

So do I but damn it do I want to see the GFS get a win here. Just would be so interesting (and on brand) to have it slow down and separate the baja energy a little more each run for it to just wildly swing towards the Euro's depiction all of a sudden within 60 hours.

For last week's storm, GFS was the model to overamplify around 60-90 hours out only to scale back some as we got closer versus Euro and CMC were way less diggy with the shortwave. A blend sounds about right

That cutoff being 30-40 miles from DC proper would be an absolute nail biting nowcast the day of the storm. Nice and easy isn't as exciting, as they say!

DC Proper loses the 850/700 mb temp profile battle from 0Z Monday to 9Z Monday but we're right on the edge of the transition line via 700 mb map starting at 18Z Sunday. We have roughly 1.2-1.3 QPF before that time and an additional .2-.3 after that. Really on the edge though by the middle of Sunday.

Just some small differences I'd say...

I'd call that a trend

Not sure what the ratio of freezing rain and sleet would be in this given scenario but 12z EURO with monster FRZRN totals

Saw this elsewhere but looks like sounding flights are planned

Actually think that is the fault of our NS SW as it digs deeper over the Midwest but moves a bit faster than 6Z did which led to a messier downstream phase

0Z had around .97 QPF in the city, so a very slight step back but mostly just noise

Agreed - looks like the GFS came in even stronger initially with that high as it's diving down (1051 mb)

AIGFS similarly holding back more of the baja energy, leading to a more surprised result - not surprising thus far but something to keep in mind. Don't want to see this mirrored on the rest of the suite

Was nice while it lasted GFS

Feel like the GFS has recently been more typically holding back energy in the SW in the medium range after overamplifying it in the longer range (168 hr and up) and/or shearing STJ energy as it propogates eastward. I don't think its a possibility we can ignore even with EPS/UKMET/CMC not taking on the same evolution. First part of the system feels very blizzard of 88-ish?

0Z Icon still suppressed with the baja energy still not ejecting quite as quickly as you would like

Get's way funnier when you add 12Z

Key here is to slow down the shortwave as it propogates cross country to allow the High to move further east and give us a better cold push. Prior runs had the interaction with the shortwave out of the SW which slowed everything down in the ULs, but without that, we're really going to have to balance timing. No point in sweating yet, players are on the field.

0Z held back the southern stream energy again so we have a similar result to 18Z but with a tad more of a cold push. Metros right on the doorstep but it won't do it this run. After a full two days of runs showing this period as an opportunity, safe to say we have some tracking ahead of us with this one. Details don't matter yet

We got a bit screwed getting the initial slug of moisture with temps in and around the city. I think the only chance of accumulating snow would be if that precip field expands as the low ramps up - DC rides that line on the 0Z HRRR with temps dropping

Sheesh that WAA really screws the city and surrounding areas

CPC biting on the trends here

Virtually no differences from 6Z thru 51 hrs on GFS

AIGFS trending the right way for the CAPE storm

It's times like this that I would like to remind everyone that we could be chasing super long range pattern changes or dealing with Pac Puke funneling into the US coupled with a raging SER. It could (and routinely has in the past 10 years) been worse than we have it right now. While it sucks to see a potentially fun dynamic system not go our way, you can't look at the models last night and tell me we don't own any serious chances in the next two weeks. I'll gladly take flakes or a coating from either system while I wait for things to materialize.