Alfoman

AIGFS similarly holding back more of the baja energy, leading to a more surprised result - not surprising thus far but something to keep in mind. Don't want to see this mirrored on the rest of the suite

Was nice while it lasted GFS

Feel like the GFS has recently been more typically holding back energy in the SW in the medium range after overamplifying it in the longer range (168 hr and up) and/or shearing STJ energy as it propogates eastward. I don't think its a possibility we can ignore even with EPS/UKMET/CMC not taking on the same evolution. First part of the system feels very blizzard of 88-ish?

0Z Icon still suppressed with the baja energy still not ejecting quite as quickly as you would like

Get's way funnier when you add 12Z

Key here is to slow down the shortwave as it propogates cross country to allow the High to move further east and give us a better cold push. Prior runs had the interaction with the shortwave out of the SW which slowed everything down in the ULs, but without that, we're really going to have to balance timing. No point in sweating yet, players are on the field.

0Z held back the southern stream energy again so we have a similar result to 18Z but with a tad more of a cold push. Metros right on the doorstep but it won't do it this run. After a full two days of runs showing this period as an opportunity, safe to say we have some tracking ahead of us with this one. Details don't matter yet

We got a bit screwed getting the initial slug of moisture with temps in and around the city. I think the only chance of accumulating snow would be if that precip field expands as the low ramps up - DC rides that line on the 0Z HRRR with temps dropping

Sheesh that WAA really screws the city and surrounding areas

CPC biting on the trends here

Virtually no differences from 6Z thru 51 hrs on GFS

AIGFS trending the right way for the CAPE storm

It's times like this that I would like to remind everyone that we could be chasing super long range pattern changes or dealing with Pac Puke funneling into the US coupled with a raging SER. It could (and routinely has in the past 10 years) been worse than we have it right now. While it sucks to see a potentially fun dynamic system not go our way, you can't look at the models last night and tell me we don't own any serious chances in the next two weeks. I'll gladly take flakes or a coating from either system while I wait for things to materialize.

Think that is right - this isn't necessarily digging more, but rather staying too positively tilted for too long.

Legit west based blocking/ - NAO on the long range OP GFS. Encouraging to see even tho in la la land

Oof didn't see the image of all the panel members, but it looks like under 2-3 legitimate hits for the 15th storm. Upper level progression is quicker, closer to 0Z result than 6Z which was a general improvement. Seems like the Ridge out west is more robust and pushing our trough along faster than we would want.

God this is gonna sting like a b*** when its all taken away by tomorrow

You're missing PDO cycle in the right part of its 6-10 year cycle and being in a solar minimum! Oh and for Ji to approve of the risk from the time it shows up 384 hrs out on the OP GFS...easy stuff to be honest?

With so much NS energy flying around, nothing will be clear about the upper level progression along with the trough next week for some time. I'm not giving up on the 15-16th timeframe until the weekend - even some light clipper action a possibility in the scheme of things.

From a trough out west to this...four days of slow positive progress by mid-month

Too little too late for the phase here but move that west and add a little tilt and we'd be in biz. Plenty of time to watch this one

Agreed! And it's coming more in range, we're just outside of 200 hrs now with the onset of the 14th threat window. I don't think you can ask for more at this point in time than PNA spike in an optimal initial position out west with a few southern stream vorts dancing around a potential phasing situation. As it ALWAYS has been, we just need to get a little lucky. I don't expect ensembles to show huge totals until the details consolidate, but encouraging to see the amount of offshore coastal show up on the GEFS/EPS increase for 0Z. We've survived 5 days of 2026 without a distinct threat to follow, we can handle another few days.

Think the banter in here yesterday and this morning has been a bit restless and ridiculous to be honest. While there have been a number of rug pulls and pattern reversals over the years, seeing a window of opportunity line up in the mid-range with practically every index close to/in the correct quadrant is exceedingly rare. The beginnings of the NAO retrograde westward and Western US ridging are within the next 3-4 days, it is not a distant pattern change still in lala land. Getting the pieces to align and timing perfect so southern stream energy doesn't get squashed/sheared or that a phase doesn't only occur well offshore will ALWAYS be a struggle. We're hunting for a big dog coastal, it's a fragile balance. The stigma that we need a DGEX type solution every suite to overamplify every shortwave that comes through for us to feel confident...is irresponsible. We had plenty of rug-pull back then too, we just don't remember it as well because we hit more frequently than we have in the last decade. Look at the Euro AI if you want to feel something...three coastals in a row for the rough timeframes we have had pinned down for the last few days: 8th/9th, 10th/11th, 14th/15th. I expect the ensembles to start lighting up over the next few days at the least with some potential positive solutions.

0Z GFS looks like it reverted back closer to the 12z solution - more ridging out west and a more consolidated vort. However, us in the lowlands need this thing to dig more or it ends up being too warm

One of these shortwaves has to deliver a surprise eventually, right???