Alfoman

This will be such an interesting and frustrating set-up! The chase can often times lead to disappointment and incredibly tight gradients, but it is something interesting to watch nonetheless. However, I am really interested in the post-Christmas through first week of January period! Our outlook has completely changed over the course of the last few months for the better in terms of winter weather. The La Nina has likely peaked and is going to be declining in strength as we enter Jan/Feb. The teleconnections look very good going into Christmas, and this month may be our first with a -AO signal for almost 30 full days in probably a decade at the least. Long range models hinting at an awesome stretch of high-latitude blocking and even a potential sudden stratospheric warming event going into January (ECMWF specifically). SSWs can disrupt the polar vortex and allow arctic air masses to dislodge and move further south, bringing in our supply of colder air to work with. I'm still skeptical of the SSW , because it literally is the buzzword that comes up every winter as our potential savior, but I'm excited about the chance still. Also, these types of events can be tough for models to account for, so if it does occur, be weary of modeling until they can account it. Does not guarantee anything, but I'll take anything after the past few miserable winters on my end.

I agree that the day 5 wave could be intriguing! Would need the wave to dig deeper (which it has been trending in that direction since yesterday) but even if we get the precipitation to fall, I do not think there is enough of a cold air source behind it for snow anywhere outside of the mountains. Second wave is VERY interesting this far out for now. Excited to see how it evolves on the models tonight and tomorrow

The ridge over the Atlantic is strong enough to steer system NE as it gets amplified in the favorable quadrant of the trough which pulls it in that direction simultaneously. Although, this solution was entirely different than the previous run (night and day) so disregard exact positioning that far in the future. It would be better to focus on the overall larger scale pattern, but even that is tough to pinpoint. For example, here is the 6Z v the 12z GFS for the same time frame at the very ends of their respective runs.

This is definitely interesting heading into the middle and latter part of the month. While NAO/AO/PNA are all forecasted to head towards a more neutral signal towards the middle of December, I'm hoping this could mean the tropospheric polar vortex heads south allowing for more arctic air intrusion towards the second half. 12z GFS returns our current +PNA/-NAO/-AO scheme at the end of the run, which will likely change but is encouraging nonetheless.

BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...DELTA REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 93.4W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Winds lagging at the surface still (90-95kt) but this is not far away from becoming a strong cat 3. Warrants an upgrade to 115 mph for sure. Recon going to be around over the next 2-3 hours as structural improvements continue and Delta continues to at least try and get some convection upshear...going to be interesting to say the least Edit: this is the sonde in the SW eyewall...

954.2 mb with 91kt SFMR in the SW quadrant on that pass For reference, the last pass (around 4 hours ago) in the SW quad had SFMR values closer to 65kt

I think the rapid speed is one of the only real inhibiting factors at the moment. Looking at the profiles, dry air is still an issue ahead of the system, but generally Nana has created a fairly moist pocket around her with healthy expanding outflow to the east and west. Still some shear to the south of the system, but developing anticyclone in the upper levels will keep the environment favorable until landfall. Definitely could reach hurricane strength tonight into tomorrow

Jesus Christ. If you think this season is somehow inactive or "disappointing," you likely would have lost your mind tracking a season like 2014 or 2015 (just from recent memory). We just had one of the strongest landfalling hurricanes in US history before September.

For what it's worth, both the CMC and GFS have trended slightly weaker with the digging trough in the E US, which would reduce the southwesterly shear as 97L would theoretically make its way towards the GOM. The the large pocket of dry air above the moisture envelope for the wave plus the forward speed will slow down any progress until it passes 80W. Still think this could develop into a legitimate storm once it gets into the GOM.

This is typically what happens when you mix emotions into meteorology. Of course tracking long range hurricanes can be exciting for enthusiasts and professionals alike, but at the end of the day we are just observers. It can be difficult to separate the two when you enjoy the topic so much, and it can cloud your judgement to the point where you feel disappointed when death/destruction is not on the menu. It has happened to us all at some point. A weak storm that produces 2 ACE is still a designated tropical system that is worth observing, because at the end of the day it is a data point that will help improve future forecasting. But if his quote should bring anything to light, it is that you never know what a season will bring to the table until it is over. Two weeks can be the difference between a struggling tropical storm fighting off significant shear and multiple consecutive long-range MDR hurricanes. All we can do is watch.

Which paid model subscription do you think would provide me with the best graphics/access going into the hurricane season? I've probably held off on subscribing to a premium one for a decade, but I think it is finally the time, given I've finally graduated now.

17/9/5

I feel like this will be the case with a lot of locations in central NC, NW SC, and NA GA. The rain/snow simulated radar mostly takes into account the modeled surface temperatures as being between 36-42, which translates to rain. But looking at the thermal profiles, you can clearly see an incredibly shallow warm layer at the surface that can easily be tweaked a few degrees between now and Thursday. This is a tricky setup and I do not think we get a real idea of what to expect temp wise until the hi-res models get into range. Right now we should be focusing on how the globals handle the energy transfer to our west and not expect the lower res sims to accurately depict surface conditions 84 hours out.

Go look at the 500h vort images to see where the true difference between the two lies. They seem all too similar at the surface, but the mechanisms behind the madness are far from the same

Damn this thread really did die after the last few model cycles, when it should absolutely not be. While looking at these could seem discouraging, the trends are subtle but where we want them to be in this time frame. This storm is five days away, and a suppressed look is not that bad of a thing to have at this point. From 6Z until 18Z on the GFS, we have seen the moisture slowly tick northward around 50 miles and in addition you can see the high in much better placement for cold transport from the NW compared to the last few runs. We do not get a thermal gradient threat very often for winter storms, but this is not time to give up. The players are still there and if we can get the energy to interact more with the northern stream like we see on the 18Z GFS then we still could be in business. Also I would air caution on just looking at snowfall outputs as the column above the surface is fairly cold (900 mb and above) and that would mix down with the right moisture levels.