Ralph Wiggum

I feel like some of us are starting to cherry pick the ens means with the best pattern look and trying to find a reason why it will work out. But the fact of the matter is it's a see-saw between the models. Ens means A and B look hopeful 14 days out while C is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days and ens means B and C look like a way out at day 14 but ens A is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days ens A and C look promising starting in 14 days but ens B backed down. It's an every 2 days switcheroo. Fact of the matter is, the good looks are still 2 weeks out regardless which ens may have the better idea. The issue is these looks arent stepping up in time and that is a problem. If we are going to score we need to find windows in this pattern....like tomorrow for example....and perhaps another centered around the 17th. Maybe when things get convoluted towards the end of the season we can luck into a warning type system. With the snow coverage in the N Hemi diminishing already, that doesnt give me the warm fuzzies either.

"a full-latitude trough is old-school terminology for an upper-level trough that essentially spans from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico" source: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofweather/s11.html

If this takes us up to the last week of January and these stubborn pattern changes are usually rushed too quickly on the models, then we are in trouble. We are nearing a point rather quickly where incremental changes at the end of an ens means arent going to cut it. We need to start seeing better signs of an overall pattern regime flip. Give it another 10 days. If things are still doing the 1 step forward 1 step back thing, it's time. I know people dont want to hear it but I'm pretty sure I am just putting in writing what Bob, PSU, and some others are thinking in the back of their minds.

Looks like overnight GEPS that we were hopeful would continue the positive trends started caving to the GEFS. Pac ridge never fades, broad SE ridge trying to team up with the WAR, little help up top. However, the GEFS has some weak ridging into the NAO down the road but now we are pinning our hopes, IF that is even correct, into the last week of January. MJO emerging high amp 4/5 then quickly dying in 6 before returning to the COD. The cycle is on wash, rinse, repeat for now. I think it is becoming clear we are not going to get a favorable sustained pattern this season....maybe towards the tail end. We are likely going to have to work with brief windows during peak climo. Anyone feel like dissecting the EPS?

GEFS look nothing like the op. Better look early in the EPO region maybe into the AO then goes right back to PAC ridge vomit west coast trof se ridge

OP at range but the Pac death puke blob from Hades is displaced and waning by the end.

North American trof I think unless he like the look of a massive negative SD near the Eastern NAO.

Looks like a full lat trof neg tilt to it. Big storm signal for the East....somewhere.

Ok

Congrats Texas Gulf Coast and old Mexico:

I like how on the HH GFS op the monster Pac ridge bubble spawns an ULL out of nowhere lol:

Every 2 days it seems we go in mood swings. Today is a happy ending day on the ens. Cool.

That's not a bad look and extrapolated even better. I like the more significant SD colors colors to Scandinavia and not the Pac leading the way. The trof moving east like a turtle isnt bad either. Let's get this under 180 hours. ETA: forget about he above extrapolation because one could argue the PV is setting up near Alaska which is yet another way to fail.

The wheels appear to be in motion.

Better than "epic unicorns".

I noticed on the LR gefs the PAC ridge is the strongest bit has been forecast that the max range so far. However I also see the PV is finally starting to move out of Baffin bay. Is that a wash? A fail look? Or a potential way we can get some blocking eventually in the NAO as the PV breaks off and pulls away?

Each day, the EPS and GEFS are like watching a see saw teeter totter back and forth.

I know this is beating a dead horse but wow. Looping the GEFS thru the entirety there is absolutely nothing helping to breakdown any of the key puke features. The PAC ridge just continues to grow as it gets reenergized over and over, the PV is like a top just spinning away but not wobbling very much, the W Coast trof is about as stationary a continental US trof as I have ever seen. There is no sugarcoating things as this takes us thru MLK Day. Then, even if things start to shift around favorably we are what another 10 days to 2 weeks out from seeing any effect? I, like many here, am trying to hold out hope but it is getting closer and closer to tossing Jan time. Like PSU said, give it till the 15th. If we dont see any favorable changes showing on the ens at that time.....

Savor this next threat window. Ens keep kicking any Atl help or Pac ridge breakdown farther and farther down the line. I guess this is the type of season we look for a window here or there to maybe drop a couple inches of slush. But we all know 2nd half Feb and March are the new Jan and early Feb of old.

I agree with all of this. To see the SE Ridge coming in with greater SD each run tells me the Pac isnt going anywhere anytime soon. Hope I'm wrong on that.

Looking over the ens this AM looks like the pattern of 2 days of "a way out of this" looks and 2 days of "locked in" looks continue. Notable degrading of the way out looks overnight. SE Ridge now starting to flex and look like more a player than we may want. Someone mentioned as long as the greatest SD arent in the Pac and begin to show near Scandinavia that would be a good signal. Now we are starting to see the Pac and Scan balanced in SD but the SE Ridge challenging for the lead.

We excel at trying to find ways to escape crap patterns and tellies. Lots of experience among us.

Ok so let's say this look holds. Does the SE ridge reflection save us from systems sliding south? Or would this look simply more of a cold entrenched surface with overrunning and ice ala 93-94? I'm thinking just looking at this there would be a boundary/gradient with systems trying to cut but CAD being entrenched due to the PV getting squashed from the Scan ridging. I know the look isnt horrible....just looks like a signal is there for icy with the strong PV just to the N and the SE Ridge flexing. I dunno....just talking out loud. Not much tracking attm.

What do you guys make of the LR ens and weeklies anchoring the PV near Baffin Bay? If it is going to just settle in to one specific region, is there where we like to see it? It seems ok to me....better than over Alaska or Siberia but wanted to hear others' thoughts as this seems to be where we are headed almost unanimously on all guidance.

This is exactly what I was getting at drawing on the discussion between you and frd. The ens have the retro look and an appearance of a way out with hints of ridging in the AO and NAO regions as the Scan ridge and EPO flex. The CFS, while temp anomalies are colder late Jan and early Feb the 500mb is not as good a look and is cold/progressive with zero Atl/AO help essentially. Beggars cant be choosers but I would rather take a roller coaster ride and some Atl help with active storm chances than just a cold dry fast flow pattern tbh. It is what it will be.