Ralph Wiggum

The euro at the end of the run looks a little like 0z GGEM with the NS energy zipping thru ushering in the CAA and a piece of stj energy hanging back. Obviously is a day slower than the GGEM thus the slower evolution. Might be setting up something for right around NYE.

Not tons of support for it but worth mentioning the period around Dec 30 when the pattern transition is underway has some potential. GFS showed it, Euro hinted at it (both trended towards phase in Plains=cutter), and now the GGEM is showing the northern jet steamrolling thru and leaving a stj sw behind that forms a slp and comes N. Verbatim the 850 low rides under us and is textbook track:

0z GGEM has the scenario I mentioned with the arctic jet racing out ahead and the left behind stj sw developing and coming N. GFS/Euro ops phase in the Plains=cutter. Maybe a period to keep an eye on.

We can dream while the blinds are closed. I'm creepily peeking thru the slits stalking the pattern change.

HH GFS interesting look at 180. Get that NS ull to plow ESE and flatten the top of that ridge down into the Mid Atl and not phase with the stj ull and have the stj wave follow behind and yeah.

Much prefer glancing cold shots over the PV diving into the OV. Later in mid Feb to late March that is fine, but often times all that accomplishes this time of year is to suppress the storm track and be dry and frigid cold. Also tends to moderate then have to reload the cold. You can argue that on the backside of a PV visit we can get a storm but more times than not we are looking at stale cold and a thump to blech situation. Not that I would kick any snow to the curb....just prefer the consistent glancing cold waves over one singular polar plunge.

Latest ens means 500mb pattern all in agreement now that the PAC puke pattern will be brief and a return to a favorable Atl then subsequently the PAC which (hopefully) will follow all begins to shift within 7-10 days. I apologize for the piss-poor artwork but key points here are the return and repeating of the Aleutian low and 50/50 low (red circles). Lower pressures in the stj with steering currents marked in black below ridging in Southern Canada. Magenta arrows showing ridging in the N Atl repeatedly moving into Scandinavia then back into the NAO region and in the West the looks of the EPO ridge trying to start rebuilding. If this background state reestablished we should also see a return to the split flow out West which we have seen more often than not since late October. Pac is ok, none of it is perfect or epic. But this overall look as we finish out the holidays is a nice step in the right direction if you are a fan of winter.

What a difference a day makes.

Good chance that period does in fact materialize. However looks like the euro has 2 potential threats leading up to that. Again....enjoy the relax/reload next 7 days or so.

Enjoy this relax/reload period for the next week to 10 days. Enjoy the holidays...family...the seasonal weather. Busy times ahead as the New Year approaches.

This isnt going to happen but it is showing the shutout pattern probably wont last very long.

I see nothing alarming there at all. Neutral look 'at worst' on all 3 moving ahead. The PAC is in a reload and will be meh for a week-10 days before the Aleutian low starts reestablishing and begins pumping an EPO ridge again. Not buying the TPV shifting to Santa's neighborhood and anchoring itself... not given what is happening at the Strat level with the pummeling of the SPV and squeeze play going on. And dont look now but we are seeing signals for a SWE specifically over Siberia starting in the medium range. I'm not an expert on how the strat and trop interact but I do know that when the SPV is under stress and/or there is warming over Siberia it is less likely for the TPV to strengthen and anchor itself over the N Pole as one entity. My honest feel moving forward? Enjoy this break....the pattern reload/relax....the holidays....family, friends, and a nice break from tracking (hasn't amounted to much but has been active since mid Nov). When the reload is complete in early January things are going be active and cold with plenty of tracking.

Spoke too soon? Did you see the latest EPS? Big steps in the right direction. Matches the tellie indices from CPC that look favorable. Definitely a meh pattern for the next 10 days but I dont think we are in a close the blinds pattern either headed into early January. Doubt we wait 3 weeks but 12-15 days is possible. I'm still having a tough time trusting ens means past 10 days given last year's debacle as well as the flops within 8 days this fall and early met winter.

Just had an emergency alert wake me for a snow squall warning. That's a new one. Looked outside and whiteout conditions. Good stuff.

SE PA has a few squalls set to move thru between 5 and 9pm. Some spots may pick up a quick C-1" still it appears.

And in proper fashion the Flyers dominate with a 4-1 win. How sad for Oskar Lindblom tho. So young. Cancer just doesnt discriminate. Prayers for a full recovery.

Hrrr is in for SE PA squalls. Tomorrow afternoon and early evening could be fun....short-lived but fun.

I dont remember reading any outlooks calling for a "really good winter". Most outlooks called for avg to below avg snowfall this winter with a crud December and better January, February, and some March. I went with avg to above avg and chances for a bigger storm....maybe 2.

3k NAM jumped on board

Mesos still looking good for some snow squalls tomorrow evening as a trof swings thru the region. Northern areas favored. Any of those could drop a quick localized c-1"

Eagles-Cowboys game in Philly could be alot of fun with the entire season riding on it for both teams

cheers!!

You may very well be right. Like you said 50/50. I'm just playing devil's advocate with you. Your glass is half empty mine is half full. Just keeping discussion open and both of us are presenting different sides.

Actually if you look at the GEFS 2m 5-day averages thru the run, aside from the first panel the entire run is BN with 1 N panel I saw.