Ralph Wiggum

That comes after the gradient pattern winds down. Here's what happens during the next 2 weeks tho:

I thought the only greenhouse gases having negative impacts were cow farts? Eat Mor Chickn

JMA is rain to snow next Thurs/Fri.

You're debating 'textbook' look over what I posted which you stated wasnt a 'good' look. I agree it wasnt strong on the ens means but plenty of members had such a look and besides the GFS there were other ops that had similar looks. My point isnt to debate you on textbook epic vs good. More was pointing out how guidance essentially did a 180 on that map I posted. I'm sure you can at least agree with that no?

It wasnt that good? It had a block in a prime spot for several runs and on the final run before it flipped it actually remained there rebuilding for 5 or 6 days. No sense arguing what once was, but it was a good look on the ops for a few days of runs.

Same feelings shared my white flag raised a bit more recently once our early Feb window began to close. But like you said, we both still look for that fluke system. We would be lying if we said we weren't still hoping that some system that we stumble into could produce as a surprise during this dumpster fire.

The Greay Valentine's Day Storm of 2020 keeps appearing on the GFS. Maybe we can score some white rain or at least be 35 and rain rather than 50 and rain.

Remember 48 hours ago when these 2 features were in exact opposite spots?

Problem is like you said..."to the North". No real mechanism or HL block to even help nose or bleed it down into the region. It really wouldnt take much either and that's the frustrating part. A neutral ao/nao would work here. But a ++AO/++NAO wont do it.

Man, what could have been. I guess it is still possible though very unlikely. If we were just to the N side of the gradient the next 5-15 days we would have made a run at seasonal averages if not exceeded them. Almost steady train of moisture.

Then the GFS says we get to play the same game early the following week! ETA: some seasons it just finds ways to snow when the atmosphere says it is almost impossible, and then other years you have the complete opposite where it screws you every which way imaginable.

I like how we have like 3 weakish waves along the front midweek each slowly pushing the boundary/gradient SE.....then it finally clears the area and we are cold enough for frozen for wave #4 but the caboose wave decides to amplify just enough to warm the critical layers for rain lol.

Wow why can't we get the front to clear from the midweek storm. That's most depressing thing I've seen this year Bermuda high ftmfw!

It's amazing that 3 days ago models were showing one of the strongest neg NAOs I've seen forecast in a long time. Not only did they flip it to a raging +NAO but instead shifted the greatest SD anomalies towards the Gulf of Alaska. I dont ever recall such dramatic 180 flips in such short periods as this year. Worst part is that guidance has trended away from any good looks every time we were teased and never once the opposite ie bad look towards a good look. I dont know if guidance has climo factored in but if so programmers need to oust the outdated climo data and replace with fresh climo data to reboot how forecasting progs are modeled.

If that ridge heads into central Canada and connects with the se ridge with the MJO going 5-6 we are going to be talking record high temps before talking snow chances. I can see this heading towards a frustratingly close mid to late Feb with arctic air lingering very close to the N and W but anomalous warmth via the se ridge in our area. It's just one of those seasons. You highlighted it well with the analogues of the Jan pattern and the history of looks going forward the rest of winter.

If that S AK ridge moves into the HL and links up with the se ridge to go full lat it will be early spring. I see more ways to fail with that look than to score tbh. Not saying we cant reverse the curse and get one hit before its over but the clock is ticking.

I said I will give it till feb 10 before raising the white flag but damn it is going to be a challenge to hang in that long. Every single index is against us. +++AO, ++NAO, -PNA, MJO going into 5-6, se ridge raging. The window is shutting quickly as is the winter. I can see an early spring this year tbh. All signs are leaning against the recent cold and snowy Marches repeating this year. Feb 10 is it for me...if nothing within 7 days at that time I am over and out. Time is running out folks.

Fyp

I heard the weenies misread your post and have set fire to the Panic Room. Honest misinterpretation I suppose

Farmers almanac was way off this year. At least you and Joe Bastardi are sharing your ideas hinting irt similarities to the '93 pattern headed later into Feb. We can hope.

ICON supports this run ^^ but I'm sure the GFS will come along and draw people into thinking there is a chance with raging ++AO and ++NAO. Next winter can only be better, cant be worse right? I mean, seriously we have hit rock bottom right? I think we all need a group hug....or group therapy. Either will suffice.

Facts. Saudi Arabian deserts are the new Siberia.

Shhhhh. Weenie rule #1387...if the kuchera shows ice or sleet then defer to TT and factor it all as pure snow.

Why wasnt this posted? All y'all weenies are slackin. And like they say, good to see the max zone a bit South. ETA: weenie rule #923...the big ones are sniffed out early