Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Bingo. This has played out like most mesos showed. WAA bonus snows yesterday, lull overnight into morning with sleet push to southern LV. Now if mesos are right should be all snow everywhere E PA by 1130AM latest. Then the heaviest snows 1-7pm. -
Radar returns confirm that map. See my post in the obs thread with this map:
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Those purple returns stall over Central Bucks for about 4 straight hours after 12pm.
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I know it is nowcast time but the RGEM is a beatdown!
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I would be more concerned with the heavier stuff reaching your area out in Lancaster Co more than sleet tbh.
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Purple outline is setting up to be the heaviest area of precip next many hrs. I outlined in red the area of subsidence with very light returns or nada....very common.
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It will. Within 45 mins. Eta: and as I hit the submit reply button we are now mixing with large flakes
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All models have been showing by 10:00-10:30ish consistently....at least the mesos were
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A good chunk of that in extreme SE PA is sleet. Should still see another 5-10" snow this afternoon for most down this way on top of the 6" already on the ground here.
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Heavy sleet here. 28F
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HRRR as usual 2 steps behind but if the widespread 8-16" on the HRRR is just catching on the NAM may score the late coup
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Pinpoint nailed it
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Check out the convergence happening from about Delco n to Upper Bucks and easy to just across the river. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=DOX-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad
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Are you not reading the reports of the flip happening almost instantly in spots near you when the heavier batches are overhead? The warm nose is shallow and is being easily countered. It will happen quickly.
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Wouldn't be a Miller B without a bunch of posts during the handoff to coastal stating this isn't going to work out because it is sleeting or a lull. 27F
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90% snow here now. Moderate.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
6z GFS has at least 3 winter storms to track. Complete weenie run. -
Yep. Big convergence zone. You can clearly see the coastal taking over now wrt the flow.
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More snow than sleet now here. Starting to pickup. 27F
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HRRR caved to the GFS....if that's such a thing.
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Radar is exploding. In another couple hours the poop is going to hit the fan. Currently 26F and sleet/snow mix in Ivyland.
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Good luck everyone! Please begin getting to your seats, the show is about to begin shortly. And above all, enjoy.
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Herpes:
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SE PA dry slut is gone
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I like this
