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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    I also think maybe the old adage 'guidance is about a week or so too fast and rushing the pattern change' may have been in err this time. Like someone else said, 3 tracking events next 8-10 days or so....you bet I will savor it and be tracking my ass off.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    This is what I've been saying for a week now. We are too focused on late month and stuff will surprise us in the short and mid ranges. Well, here we are.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Already crazy but yeah.... Folks were touting the pattern on the models getting rushed and best stuff late Feb into March. But the pattern doesn't look like the models were rushing it. -NAO/-AO/-EPO allowing here next week and it isnt mid month. My gut is saying models actually were slow with the model change and we should enjoy next week.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Anyone else feel this advertised great pattern after Feb 20 is going to turn out to be meh and the real show is actually over the next week and a half to two weeks?
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Is the mint pattern still on target to arrive after the 20th or did the epo change mitigate that?
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    No Sistene Chapel teleconnection? No March 1993?
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Meanwhile the fv3 holds off on precip until after 6am extreme se pa.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks like quite the mess from say i78 north and west. Hoping areas s and e can tick above freezing sooner. Temps are marginal but the killer is this happens mostly at night and coldest part of the day. Could still be potentially tricky for some of those s and e of 78.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    2m surface temps at 10am Thursday last 2 runs. Colder. Maybe nam resolution is starting to note the better cad:
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Thread open to discuss Wednesday/Thursday:
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Last 3 NAM 12k 850 temps:
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Things are starting to look more solid wrt frozen precip overnight Wednesday into Thursday AM rush before hopefully flipping to rain then moving out. Discussion here.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    12k NAM continues to get colder at the onset of heavier precip overnight Wednesday. Slightly stronger low near coastal NC as well helping with the CAD. Here are the last 3 runs of 850s for comparison:
  14. Ralph Wiggum
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Not surprising, the gfs op looks nothing like the gefs at h5 at range. GEFS still has the tpv in a favorable spot underneath the negative nao where the op rotted the tpv and linked the nao with the ser. Crisis averted
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    You mean 309 gets worse than the current decrepit state it is in?
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Yeah, what's up with that? The good period advertised looks worse than the lead-up. Before anyone says it, I know it's the op at farthest range and likely wont look anything like that at 384. But wouldnt it be some shit we get crushed during the reload then go into a relax after the 20th, the old bait n switch?
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    I'm just trying to be patient.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Kuchera totals
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    I will just leave this here. Anyone got the kuchie?
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Is there such a thing as too much? Wtf
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Holy shit, then other mecs next weekend. Here's the 24hr snowfall for that bomb:
  23. Ralph Wiggum
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Having an Oreo McFlurry, close enough BTW, rgem is a rush hour nightmare up here Thursday AM. Driving to work in Telford at 730am looks challenging
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Would be really cool to ha snow during the Eagles victory parade next Wednesday, even though they would probably reschedule it. Yep, I said that too. Going for the ultimate jinx
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