Ralph Wiggum

Aside from being a mere deterministic solution, is actually a fairly decent rendition of how I see the pattern progressing over the next 12ish days. Some will disagree, but we actually have some stable large-scale features/tellies that make the Jan 27-29 period less a mirage and more a legit possibility. Leading up to this week, we had upper features up top shuffling around all over the place. It is no wonder the LR guidance had been struggling. But we are finally establishing a quasi-stable h5 structure with the epo ridge, ao ridging, and even some semblance of an Aleutian low out on the PAC side. I will refrain from gooning, rather I will suggest increasing optimism on my end for post 1/25.

Seems to be starting to warm up to that period around Jan 27-29ish I've been gooning about. Not to say thr 24th cant work, but I think that lays the baro zone and gets the cold air established for the followup.

EPS also well offshore for Sunday.

Euro didnt budge and is a good bit offshore. ICON ticked SE just a smidge with the Sunday system. Getting deja vu here with the GFS likely pulling a Lucy.

While all the focus right now is short term which isnt a surprise, cant help but feel good about where we're are headed later this month. The period from Jan 27-29 probably holds the best potential of the season thus far. AO flexing, epo still on roids, tpv being pressed into the NE, waves coming out of the west. Ens seem to be in good agreement attm. Let's get an appetizer this weekend to set the wheels in motion, then we can goon over late month if the looks hold.

60F ...but we should see some flakes flying this weekend regardless.

Need some euro support and I might budge. For now, going with the least snowiest model. Pretty good rule for keeping expectations in check.

So what is our least snowiest model attm? Euro? Just curious

Slower moving system. Noice.

Icon gives se pa a modest little event on Saturday

Period around Jan 27-29 is the one to watch. It is a window ive been seeing for a couple days now and I noted it in the other sub. Patience will pay off. 24-25 system is N or W then pushes the boundary under us. Followup should be able to do something with cold air in place. Whether thats a weak overunning wave or an amped up thump to mix type, we will have to wait and see.

Just saw. Maybe not a discrete threat for the 27-29 period yet, but not surprised to see some operational surface teases based on the ens means h5 panels.

Dont have latest eps, but really like what it was hinting at 0z for after the 27th

GEPS around the period above has up top ridging flexing and pressing on the tpv. I can live with a WAR here as the epo is still firing and if you advance this panel, an aleutian low is building. Really like 27-29 and much of what follows tbh. And those around a while know I dont honk LR stuff very often. Nothing discrete yet but our best window by far approaching imho

I dont generally post about LR windows often. Was never a huge fan of the 24th/25th. As I noted to Cape, the pattern at that time points to the boundary to our North. The wave that slides east at that time helps drag the boundary back south of us in addition to better ridging up top pressing the pv south. The best chance that I have circled on the calendar, and that ensembles are starting to warm up to, is Jan 27-29. Too far out to get into specifics but the bigger worry with this window would be too much pressing S of the PV, too cold, and congrats Southern zones. Plenty of minor chances ahead, but I do like what we are seeing wrt pattern progression around Jan 27-29.

Someone get that man another cup of espresso !

@CAPE gets CAPE'd with his 1/20 thing

Minor shifts last 4 runs

I accept. Where do I sign?

AI GFS is decent for the 18th. We continue seeing some positive trends.

#SilentButDeadly Wait, what are we sniffing again? Besides glue.

Next run will be a cutter. Thats how we roll. Then the next system follows the boundary pressing S and hits the Carolinas while we smoke cirrus. I kind of mean that jokingly BUT dont tell me that isnt a common way we fail in this kind of setup in a Nina ie cutter then squasher.

Dont do that. It will be gone in 6 hours.

Fringed

Should probably start a thread