Well, I was bored and reading thru the weenie handbook, and I found a glimmer of hope....page 4 section b: "wait for the energy in question to get onshore before throwing in the towel on any given storm as things will begin to trend favorably". Hmmm
So, with next week in the dumpster, how we looking for our big grand finale major drool-worthy loaded powder keg pattern after the 20th? We still good?
Those are pretty but are talkng indices verifying or actual meaningful wintry westher? I.am focused on the latter. Dont care if the ao is -6 SD if it isn't going to produce.
I'm not writing it off. I'm just not feeling confident. And the point of my post was that if we do get everything to line up in that pattern change and for some reason we still shit the bed, then as psu alluded to, back to the log book and that conversation nobody wants to have.
I kept telling ppl stop looking ahead to the 20th+.....and watch the 5th-14th. But I got ripped a new one. The same ppl do the same thing every year and never learn. One year they will hit it.
Yeah ,but there are issues with our epic pattern. Not we have energy and a trof trying to set up in the SW, the EPO ridge is displaced too far West, the waning HL block is in the western side of Canada, and the SER is flexing it's muscle.
Well, i will help our cause. Im taking the time this weekend to pack up the snowblower, put the shovels into storage....but i will keep the ice melt handy for the 140 minutes I will need it Sunday morning. That should pretty much guarantee us a measurable event soon.
Meh...3 events (Saturday, Tuesday, Thurs/Fri) for a whopping 5"....and thats the Kuchera. We take, but this promising week is falling apart. We still got the Birds tho!!
@Heisyhey BTW, what do you make of the period from the 17th thru like the 24th? The nao retrograding and rotting, the epo pumped, the pna trending positive. Is this all too much of a good thing or are we priming ourselves up for a wild ride?
Agreed. All the ops are exactly where we like to see them at this range. GFS south and dry, Euro more amped and targeting our general area, CMC in the middle.
One thing I've noted for several years now....when the models get the first run with the Pac dropsonde data ingested they almost always take a weird jump. The gfs did exactly what we would expect. Now things tend to settle down going forward and the actual trends back to what we were seeing take place.
We are in a nice spot tbh.
Well, the 6z euro crushes SE PA and LV so yeah. Something interesting at least looming for Tuesday. Excited for Saturday night and then the Super bowl for now!