Ralph Wiggum

Watch the GEFS go weenie mode this run now.

I'm done looking up top for good looks. I mean wtf is this and we still torch? Probably not right but cmon already.

I hope you are like 10 pints in after that run.

Swamp ass weather

Wiggum Rule headed for a rare fail. 61F here today and I dont see how we muster a flake over the next 5 days.

My expectations thru Jan 12 are lowish so I'm not expecting much outside of some fluke flakes or a fluke event we back into as we transition. My expectations for mid Jan forward are on the relatively higher side....not expecting wall to wall winter or a bunch of MECS but certainly more activity and finally cashing in with a few legit events. My patience is very high this season. We may very well have to deal with more warmups with colder active windows sandwiched inside. I mentioned this in my preseason outlook and stand by this.

Patiently waiting to hear Ji declare that run is an unmitigated disaster with no blue thru mid Jan. This is about the time he usually cancels and we begin tracking legit events.

But if you're looking at thise models to see if they agree with the GFS storm, then you're still tracking. Neil Peart of RUSH once said, "If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice"

I've done a research paper with data going back to 2002 for the Doylestown area specifically in SE PA and there is validity and factual support for this. I would only assume the same holds true for other general areas relatively nearby. My data here shows when we reach 60F we have flakes flying within 5 days. Not all are accumulating....about 75%. Of that 75% about 90% of those are 2" or greater. The date range of studies was Dec 27-Feb 10.

Good to hear from you. Enjoy your vacation. Just hadn't seen many folks touching post Jan 8 aside from @CAPE and myself. You are usually driving the bus.

I have a hunch this amping of sw's pressing East across the TN Valley is going to be a bias of the new GFS we are going to have to get used to. This would be 3 in a row it did this with at day 7-9. Just something I've noticed. May or may not be a thing.

I'm with you. I think this Jan 6-8 thing is happening during our transition. And most of the time these don't work. I'm more interested in the lw looks a week later headed to mid month. Pretty sure we are on the same page wrt both of those things I mentioned. Did @WxUSAF take a vacation?

Just want to use the eps as a quick example since it anchors the TPV over Siberia and blocks any true CPF and has a more toasty look up top: Someone yesterday posted 2m temp anomaly maps like above to support their theory that the pattern going forward is crud. Again, I'm using the least favorable look EPS up top wrt those temp anomalies to show you we don't need a perfect setup or even near normal to get the surface near freezing. Even slightly AN 2m works during prime climo. It is below freezing at the surface same time on the means: In any event, I would not be basing the pattern on 2m temps. Look at the lw pattern overall. And while the EPS isnt as stout as the GEFS (more reliable lately) and GEPS, it still has enough cold to the North via the Aleutian low and EPO nose. The key is getting the 250mb pac to retract which all signs say that will happen. The cold will rebuild thereafter.

^^^that may not be a big dog KU slow crawling coastal signature but that is MUCH better than current and implies a wave train moving under the region with us on the proper side of the boundary.

Pretty nice shift on the ens mean away from a PAC firehose extention with equatorial reach to a 250mb PAC retraction and poleward shift and beautiful split flow out West. Progression of the pattern going as expected with the transition being around the 7th (op actually uses a coastal to signal a more sudden/drastic shift) then fully evolved by the 15th. Ways out there but not much else to talk about during our current reload. Pretty much same evolution as 4 weeks ago but this time as we move ahead our rain storms from Dec should have better frozen chances as we enter prime climo. That is if the lw progression mimics the last. With the retract: Eta: I actually like how the NAO isn't as stout as 2 weeks ago here. Get the PAC side working....I will take my chances with a neutral NAO imstead

Hopefully not a Nina head fake but 6z run was snow on snow on snow weenie run with things progressing much more favorably as mid January approaches with the woof woof building at the end. Ens are supportive of the progression towards a very workable pattern with a less hostile PAC that actually plays to our favor down the road.

Who wouldn't take this fantasy look in early January? If we didn't know it was going to push mid 60s a few days prior we would be more inclined to believe it: Like I said to you yesterday, this window doesn't have alot going for it especially lacking antecedent cold air in place. But I could see a rain ending as snow type deal. The threat window towards mid month starting around the 12th has much more going for it attm but we r wayyyy out there in la la land with that one. And you know how Nina progs flip on a dime even within a week. Still can't get a solid feel on the current 7-8 day window.

There is some truth in this. About 75% of the case studies were accumulating snow with 90% of those being greater than 2". GFS from 6z wants to fall into this category:

Yep. Sticking with original thinking as well. The 6th- 7th is thread the needle. And op rushing the change. Like you, I'm still thinking a little later. This system is the transition and we get there a little later. Progression still looks to be on track as per original thinking.

Well damn, I knew it didn't have a ton going for this window but wasn't expecting that tbh. Thanks for posting.

Looking forward to the gefs to see if the op has any support. I mean, the gefs has been heading this way past 2 or 3 runs so I don't think it's absurd to think we transition sooner than later during prime climo. Biggest things I've noticed past several runs in the LR out past the 8th are the retraction of the pac jet, poleward momentum, and the rebuilding of HL neg height anomalies across the EPO, AO, and NAO. PNA moving away from negative isn't hurting either. Don't want to rush the changes we know so.etimes these are delayed but these are all encouraging signs. No head fakes please.

I would lmao if this big warmup was shorter than anyone including myself thought and we enter our 'transition' period tracking legit discreet events.

The look of that banana high up top is getting more stout each run. Wonder if we can reverse the curse and instead of morphing away from threading a needle we can morph this somehow into a legit event. There is a path to victory but it isn't clean nor easy. That WAR may feed a ridge over top of the wave and end up being a blessing in disguise. It's a fast mover with not a whole lot to slow it down but who knows....if we time things right could be a modest little event. Still think this is a tight window with not enough going in its favor...yet. Something under 9 days to track and seeing the backside of the warmth? Thats a win in my book attm.

Getting closer. Still have 8-9 days to adjust for better or worse. Let's thread this needle