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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Basically
  2. yoda
    I'd take the 06z NAM NEST and the 06z NAM
  3. yoda
    And LWX HWO mentions isolated tornadoes possible in each 3 parts for the region .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Hot and humid conditions are expected this afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and peak heat indices between 100 to 105 degrees. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into the evening. There is the potential for considerable wind damage, but confidence is low at this time.
  4. yoda
    Day 1 OTLK from SPC still mentions potential upgrade .Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear.
  5. yoda
    Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible over parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday. ...OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... An upper trough will progress eastward on Wednesday from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place across much of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic where strong heating will support moderate to strong destabilization. Forcing for ascent associated with the eastward-advancing upper trough and one or more MCVs moving across the region will support scattered to numerous strong/severe thunderstorms through the period. One cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to be focused from PA eastward into the NJ/southern NY vicinity ahead of a southward sagging cold front. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will support a few supercell and/or bowing structures. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates, with mixing to around 1 km, suggest damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main hazards with this activity. Another cluster of strong/severe storms is expected to develop over the higher terrain of eastern KY/WV and northern VA. Vertical shear will be weaker with southward extent, but deeper mixing with very steep lapse rates is noted in forecast soundings. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible with this activity. Some potential may exist for higher severe probabilities in subsequent outlooks for portions of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast if an organized bowing structure can develop. However, confidence in this scenario is too low at this time for categorical upgrades. Additional storms are expected along the southward developing cold front during the late afternoon into evening closer to the OH River in southern IN and central KY. Weaker shear will limit longevity of more organized cells, but strong instability and steep lapse rates will still support localized strong gusts and marginal hail.
  6. yoda
    ENH upgrade was thought about FWIW @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe
  7. yoda
    New Day 2 at 1730z moves the SLGT risk south and west to now include all of the LWX CWA
  8. yoda
    Hmmm... this is in all 3 of the HWOs this morning as of 730am DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Hot and humid conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices between 100 to 105. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. There is the potential for considerable wind damage, but confidence is low at this time. Hot and humid conditions return over the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
  9. yoda
    LWX AFD from this morning on Wednesdays severe threat SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A progressive array of shortwaves are forecast to track from southern Alberta toward the north-central tier of the U.S. today. These height falls will provide the next chance for any organized convective activity. Based on the latest Storm Prediction Center update, areas north of the Potomac Highlands and central Virginia are in a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms. The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts and isolated large hailstones. Some of the guidance does show some higher Supercell Composite indices along the Mason-Dixon Line given the backed flow. With that in mind, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along this area of the Mid-Atlantic. The thermodynamic environment should become increasingly unstable as the boundary layer moistens through the day. This is in the presence of afternoon temperatures which should rise into the mid/upper 90s. The degree of low-level moistening is somewhat uncertain, but the consensus does raise dew points into the mid/upper 60s. This would support heat indices into the 100 to 104 degree range which does near Heat Advisory criteria. Will continue to monitor the need for any such heat-related products. Depending on how upstream activity survives the Appalachian chain, some early morning showers could push into areas west of I-81. However, the main show likely initiates along a lee-side trough during the afternoon hours. This occurs in the presence of rising buoyancy levels on the order of 2,000 to 2,500 J/kg. High-resolution guidance favors propagating this activity downstream toward the metro areas by the late afternoon to early evening. Model soundings indicate there is plenty of vertical shear to work with (35-40 knots), so expect storms to be reasonably well organized. Depending on how everything else plays out during peak heating, the cold front tracking through late Wednesday could bring additional thunder chances if any instability remains. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will mainly be in the 60s, locally in the low 70s along and east of I-95.
  10. yoda
    SPC Day 1 0600 OTLK has SLGT risk from i66 corridor north including all of MD... disco below Across the Mid Atlantic, more isolated storm coverage is expected with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for organized multi-cell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds, and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado or two will remain possible with any sustained supercell.
  11. yoda
    Mesoscale Discussion 1379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...West-central into northeast Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 222355Z - 230200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in severe threat is expected for western and northern portions of Illinois. Damaging winds are the expected main hazard, but a conditional tornado threat will also exist. A watch is likely this evening. DISCUSSION...Some increase in severe potential can be expected across portions of western into northern Illinois this evening. Activity currently in Wisconsin near the surface low/warm front may eventually congeal and push farther southward into Illinois. Additionally, storms along the cold front may move in from the west. The current expectation is that activity will generally be more linear in terms of storm mode with primarily a threat of damaging winds. While 850 mb winds are expected to modestly increase this evening, the low-level shear vector orientation will not be overly favorable for QLCS circulations. It is possible some discrete elements could develop ahead of the front/convective line which would pose a marginally greater tornado risk. Another uncertainty is the low-level moisture with eastward extent. Current surface observations show a dry pocket in the Chicagoland vicinity. Some higher dewpoints do exist to the southwest and should make some attempt to advect northeastward tonight, but the exact magnitude of moisture return is uncertain. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1379.html
  12. yoda
    @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe Sounds like some intrigue midweek? From this afternoon's LWX AFD Unfortunately, high pressure quickly pushes offshore Wednesday allowing for increased southwesterly return flow and our next shortwave trough/front to move in. This will allow temperatures to surge back into the mid to upper 90s with heat index values up and over the 100 degree mark east of the Blue Ridge Wednesday afternoon. Some uncertainty remains in regards to temperatures due to the progression of the next shortwave trough and incumbent cold front from the Ohio River Valley set to approach the region. 12z synoptic/ensemble guidance suggest fairly spotty convection Wednesday afternoon and evening with more widespread thunderstorm activity developing across the Ohio River Valley and advancing east toward the region Wednesday night. This is partially due in part to the modeling trying to resolve what looks to be a complex of thunderstorms diving south and east from the Ohio River Valley ahead of the cold front late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. In the event this occurs the atmosphere may be turned over reducing the potential threat of widespread severe weather or pushing it later into Wednesday and perhaps Thursday. Current CSU learning machine probabilities and the SPC discussion in the Day 5 timeframe also illustrate this potential threat/uncertainty for severe weather during the midweek timeframe.
  13. yoda
    I believe these are the highs for today DCA - 100 IAD - 100 BWI- 101 RIC - 99
  14. yoda
    Good call
  15. yoda
  16. yoda
    Afternoon day 2 from SPC has SLGT risk from i66 corridor and north (all of MD except for S MD) for damaging winds
  17. yoda
    @weatherwiz ENH on new Day 2
  18. yoda
    That'd be quite impressive
  19. yoda
    And it's over Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Satellite imagery and National Weather Service Doppler radar data indicate that the well-defined low pressure area located about 40 miles southeast of Brunswick, Georgia, is producing only minimal shower and thunderstorm activity at this time. The low is likely to move inland during the next several hours, and the chances of the system becoming a tropical depression are decreasing. However, interests along the coasts of Georgia and northeastern Florida should continue to monitor the progress of the system until it moves inland. For more information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent
  20. yoda
    00z GFS says DCA reaches 100 on Saturday
  21. yoda
    I'm assuming @weatherwizis drooling over some of the 00z NAM soundings for Sunday in Massachusetts at 18z and 21z
  22. yoda
    Its at the end of its run, but 00z NAM sim radar looks nice from 21z SUN to 03z MON across the region
  23. yoda
    Saturday night will be warmer still, with overnight lows in the mid-upper 70s to the east of the Blue Ridge, with lower 80s even possible in DC and Baltimore. This level of heat overnight, when the daytime temperatures are near 100, is especially dangerous because there will be very little relief. Current forecast would only have heat indices below 90 between midnight and 8 AM Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The conclusion of this weekend will mark a temporary end to the lengthy period of above average temperatures. On Sunday, 850-mb temperatures rise to around 21-23C which dry adiabatically mixed to the surface would support some century degree readings. Consequently, the forecast does call for some spots reaching 100 degrees. This is accompanied increasing humidity levels as dew points rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. The resultant heat indices range from 100 to 107 degrees across the forecast area. If this were to be maintained, Heat Advisories may be needed for much of the region. An additional threat will be some strong to severe thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon to evening hours. After over a week of continued heating of the surface, instability levels should be maximized as mixed-layer CAPE values reach 2,500 to 3,000 J/kg. The guidance vary in convective coverage which suggests there could be some capping issues. After around 9 to 10 days without a cold frontal passage, the guidance does bring a boundary through during the second half of Monday. This would bring an additional threat for some severe convection, especially for those east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. The added clouds and thunderstorm activity does carry Monday`s high temperatures back down into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Through Tuesday, this boundary eventually settles off to the south across the coastal Carolinas. Another round of hot temperatures ensue toward mid-week as highs rise into the mid/upper 90s again. Heat indices begin to approach advisory levels again. Another cold front races across the local area by Thursday which helps usher temperatures down. This would again come with another risk of severe thunderstorms.
  24. yoda
    LWX mentions severe weather quite a few times in its afternoon disco today
  25. yoda
    I am guessing we could see EHW's maybe in the metros for Sunday? Zones have HX near 110 Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 133 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 DCZ001-202100- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 133 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .THIS AFTERNOON...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. South winds around 5 mph. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 70. South winds around 5 mph. .FRIDAY...Sunny, hot with highs in the mid 90s. South winds around 5 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds around 5 mph. .SATURDAY...Sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Hot with highs in the upper 90s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Hot with highs around 100. Chance of rain 30 percent. Heat index values up to 110. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Hot with highs in the upper 90s.
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