yoda

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 922 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 WVZ501-505-222230- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-241123T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.BZ.W.0002.241122T1422Z-241123T1100Z/ Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 922 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with locally 1 to 2 feet along the ridgetops. Winds may gust as high as 50 mph this afternoon into tonight. * WHERE...Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Saturday. The heaviest snow and lowest visibility are expected between about noon today and midnight tonight. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Visibilities will drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are likely midday today through this evening. Snow may transition to a period of freezing rain or drizzle late tonight into Saturday morning. Wind chills in the teens and 20s are expected through tonight.

You are on fire this morning... you better not burn our flake chances though

Run to the north you fools!

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 138 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 ANZ538-DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508- VAZ036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527-210045- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-District of Columbia- Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock- Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-Northern Fauquier- Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 138 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 ...Rapid Onset of Strong Winds Later This Evening... A rapid onset of strong west to northwest winds will develop between 8 and 11 PM this evening behind a strong cold front. Wind gusts around 35 to 45 mph are most likely with a few gusts around 50 mph possible. The strong winds will be capable of blowing around unsecured objects and isolated instances of wind damage are possible as well. Winds will gradually diminish overnight.

Borrowed from SNE thread re 12z EPS h/t to @ORH_wxman

Out week to week https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2024/11/alex-ovechkin-being-evaluated-for-lower-body-injury.html#ref=home

Didn't know we got new reactions

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 225 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 MDZ001-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-190330- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0009.241121T1800Z-241124T0000Z/ Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton- 225 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are possible with locally higher amounts along the ridgetops. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant, Western Mineral, and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile at times due to falling and blowing snow. This may lead to whiteout conditions and may make travel difficult. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation at weather.gov/lwx/winter. Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. && $$ Belak

Oh Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 332 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024 DCZ001-180000- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 332 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024 .REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...Partly sunny. Highs around 60. Southwest winds around 5 mph. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. .MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. North winds around 5 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Northeast winds around 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 50. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 90 percent. .THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 50. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 40. .SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.

LOL Ravens

Afternoon AFD from LWX starting to talk up late next week threat LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday and Tuesday still look dry across the region as a strong upper ridge builds overhead. A weak piece of upper-level energy riding along the periphery of this ridge will likely bring some mid to upper level cloudiness at times, but still expect more sun than clouds on both days with highs in the mid 60s. The rest of next week still has a great deal of uncertainty in regards to how things unfold. There are 2 key players to watch for the mid-late week event, both of which are just starting to move into areas where there is better data input into weather models, hence the uncertainty. The first system will be a potent upper low over the southwest CONUS, which will quickly push up towards the Great Lakes through Wednesday morning. The second system, currently in the Gulf of Alaska, will dive down out of the Northwest CONUS on Wednesday into Thursday. Starting to see a fair amount agreement on how these two features merge and interact across the central CONUS, but still would like to see a few more consistent runs before landing on a particular solution. At any rate, as these systems interact, a strong low pressure system will likely develop near the Great Lakes. Sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. The system will then make its way across the region into Friday. As this all happens, we could see several hazards, including heavy rain, gusty winds, coastal flooding, and mountain snow. Again, still lots of uncertainty, but if this pans out as model guidance is trending towards, it could be a very impactful event across the Mid-Atlantic.

Pretty cool radar right now... you can see the spin out by Front Royal

Looks like some more for you

Always good to start the weekend with a Pengwin over the Capitals

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 Satellite imagery shows that the convection has increased near the center of Rafael during the past several hours. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that this has not yet translated into strengthening, possibly due to what looks like a tongue of dry air seen entraining into the center in microwave imagery. The aircraft reported maximum winds of 54 kt at 850 mb with a minimum central pressure near 994 mb. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. One note is the radius of maximum winds has decreased to about 20 n mi, suggesting that Rafael is trying to develop a better-defined inner core despite the apparent dry air. The initial motion is still northwestward at 320/11 kt. Rafael is currently on the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the cyclone generally northwestward for the next couple of days, with the center passing near the Cayman Islands and over western Cuba. After that time, there is a significant spread in the track guidance. While all of the guidance suggests that Rafael should shear apart over the central and northern Gulf, the GFS takes longer to show this happening than the ECMWF/UKMET. In addition, the GFS shows a weaker ridge north of the system, while the ECMWF/UKMET show a stronger ridge. The result is that the GFS shows a northward motion with landfall on the northern Gulf coast, while the ECMWF/UKMET show a westerly motion across the central Gulf of Mexico. Until there is a clearer signal on which of these scenarios is more likely, the forecast compromises between these extremes with a slow motion over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions are favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 24-36 h if Rafael can develop a stronger inner wind core. Based on the expectation that the core will form, the system is forecast to reach hurricane strength in about 12 h and continue to strengthen until it reaches Cuba. Once the center is north of 25N in the Gulf of Mexico, it is likely to encounter increasing vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should lead to Rafael weakening and eventually shearing apart vertically. The new intensity forecast remains on the high side of the intensity guidance and is similar to the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it passes near or over the Cayman Islands by tonight where damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves are also expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night. 3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of Jamaica and the Cayman, along with southern and western portions of Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain in Jamaica and Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 17.8N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 21.3N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 23.2N 83.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 25.1N 85.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 25.6N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 26.8N 89.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 28.0N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Pittsburgh should be a decent bell weather for this Commanders team next week at home

STS Patty it is this morning

@Stebo This affect you? https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2024/10/28/faa-air-traffic-control-weather-safety-risk/75900358007/

I missed this... any link to it?

Looks like growing season ends tomorrow night for the rest of the region

Sad, but expected I guess

Channel 5 (FOX) winter outlook released last night

It's lala land of the GFS... but 00z run sure was fun to look at

Welp, guess we're going to be freezing next week Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 212 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 DCZ001-192200- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 212 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 .THIS AFTERNOON...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. .TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable. .SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds around 5 mph. .MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs around 80. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. .WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. .THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Wind chill values as low as 120 below. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Wind chill values as low as 120 below. .FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Things have been quickly evolving with a small area of low pressure located just to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Earlier this morning, there was a 0556 UTC AMSR2 passive microwave image that suggested the system's structure had become quite a bit better organized compared to prior images, with prominent curved bands on the 37 GHz low-level channel that suggest a well-defined circulation was developing. While the overnight C-band scatterometer imagery missed the small circulation just to the west, there was a KU-band scatterometer that suggested a closed circulation had formed. First light GOES-16 meso-sector imagery also suggests a tight circulation has formed, with bubbling hot towers within a small central dense overcast taking shape. All these data suggest a tropical cyclone has formed, and based on the earlier 12 UTC TAFB T2.5/35 kt Dvorak estimate, advisories are being started on Tropical Storm Oscar with a 35 kt initial intensity. Oscar is estimated to be moving due westward at 270/11 kt. This motion should continue for the remainder of the day as the system is initially steered by a narrow mid-level ridge positioned to the north. However, a digging east-to-west longwave trough is soon expected to erode the eastward side of this ridge, causing Oscar to slowdown and potentially stall near the northeastern coast of Cuba in 36-48 hours. Thereafter, that same trough is expected to continue amplifying or even retrograde westward, and if Oscar is vertically deep enough, this should induce steering that brings the tropical cyclone northeastward. The track forecast lies close to the simple TCVA consensus aid, which is quite close to the most recent ECMWF forecast. Its worth mentioning, there is quite a bit of southwest-to-northeast spread in the ensemble guidance, with weaker members slower and further west and stronger members being captured by the trough. Intensity-wise, Oscar only appears to have a 24 h window for strengthening as shear remains low enough. The first NHC intensity forecast shows the system peaking as a 45-kt storm as it nears the eastern coast of Cuba. Shear out of the northwest increases quite rapidly after that time, due to the aforementioned trough to its north, with the intensity likely leveling off around then. There could also be some land interaction with Cuba that could disrupt the circulation. However Oscar is a very small tropical cyclone, and could be prone to rapid changes in intensity, both up and down. After 72 h, the much larger trough is likely to absorb the small Oscar, with this occurring by the end of the forecast period by the middle of next week. Key Messages: 1. Oscar is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba during the next day or so. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for those locations. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 21.3N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin