yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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LWX afternoon AFD re severe threat for tonight:
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SPC Day 1 2000 OTLK:
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Spotter activation possible tomorrow night as well
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HWO mentions potential for damaging wind gusts after midnight tomorrow night
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Slight risk isn't far away and we are in marginal risk
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What, no talk of the SPC day 2 severe threat for our region? Talk of damaging wind gusts and tornado threat
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Afternoon AFD from LWX (relevant parts posted below for severe weather chance):
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I guess... but it looks to be enough for at least some storms
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Brief severe threat Monday morning into early afternoon? 12z NAM sounding at 15z MON looks good enough for damaging winds and or a chance of an isolated tornado at KIAD and toward 18z at EZF/KDCA
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Afternoon AFD from LWX regarding Sunday into Monday morning:
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I think 12z GFS looks decent for the area from 00z SUN to 12z MON... even though its overnight threat for storms... also looks like a good chance for heavy rainfall
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Maybe a slight chance late Sunday? Battleground with the back door front? LWX morning AFD:
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00z NAM 3K has decent squall line or low topped line come through the region 15z to 16z on Wed
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Agree with you... its not great curvature and SRH is okay... just wouldn't be surprised if there was a weak spin-up somewhere
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I wouldn't be surprised to see a weak spin up given SRH and some curvature in the hodo... nor a few hail reports with 12z NAM showing decent mid-level lapse rates
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I don't have any threads saved that I know of, but I'll check to see if i have anything on my old flash drives or saved on my computer somewhere
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Hey... how much you got so far? My mom's parents live nearby you and I told her to expect 6-12"... She lives in Amherst/Williamsville area
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Thank you for looking that up for me - I greatly appreciate it
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Rodney, Topper Shutt on the 6 o'clock news stated that if DCA hits 80 degrees tomorrow, it would be the earliest 80 degree record in DCA history - prior record was Feb 24, 1930. Didn't we have an 80 degree temp in Jan or Feb of 1998 during the 1997-1998 super el nino?
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7 day map had you over an inch http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?analysis_date=1518393600&lat=38.9337750000&location_name=MD&location_type=state&lon=-77.2668460000&precip_layer=0.75&product=observed&recent_type=today&rfc_layer=-1&state_layer=0.75&hsa_layer=-1&county_layer=0.75&time_frame=last7days&time_type=recent&units=eng&zoom=7&domain=current
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00z NAM soundings around 15z suggest potential for a few tornadoes tomorrow morning IMO
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0100z SPC outlook centers in on C VA for possible severe between 09z and 12z
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Updated afternoon HWO:
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Going with 1058 tornadoes this year... first high risk in OK/TX April 3rd
