yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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Updated morning AFD from LWX is taking a bit longer than I expected... its not out yet
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14z HRRR continues the beat of having a good MCS complex rolling through the region 21z-23z
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Alrighty then 12z NAM... volatile atmosphere for 00z tonight
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06z HRDPS looks good
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12z NAM at 00z TUES near DCA 12z NAM at 00z TUES near FDK:
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True... but HRRR did do well I believe on the early morning rain and storms (remnant MCS?) from range for Sunday morning... was good for about at least 8-10 hour lead time. But yes, HRRR does find a nut once in a while lol
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Calling for a derecho A long track MCS would be fun to watch... warm front needs to move north of us though
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Thanks @mappy for those maps 30 percent risk of winds but 5 percent hail... ML Lapse rates look fine to me as well
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Where are you getting the sounding from?
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18z NAM supercell and sig tor composite hitting DC area hard 00z TUES... interesting
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Wouldnt be surprised to see a TW upcoming on the cell just SE of Warrenton
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Tornado warning on the Bedford county cell in PA about to move into MD
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STW for storms entering W Maryland for winds 60 to 75 mph
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STW for Fauquier/Culpepper/ hail to golf ball size
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Watching that storm heading SE that is currently by Somerset PA... could interact with the front
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Storms in PA are beginning to dive ESE and SE
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Hmmmm
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 238 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain near the area through much of next week. Another cold front will then approach from the northwest late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface frontal boundary early this afternoon now resides from near Cumberland MD to Manassas VA and southeastward towards the Virginia Tidewater. To the northeast of this boundary, cooler temperatures and low clouds are present. To the southwest, there exists clearer skies aside from developing a cumulus field. An interesting setup presents itself this afternoon and evening, and one that has a conditional but increasing threat of severe weather. The surface boundary is expected to remain more or less stationary for the remainder of the day, as a wave of low pressure moves along the boundary from Ohio this afternoon, east- southeastward and into central Virginia by late this evening. In the warm sector, temperatures have already warmed into the 80s and may perhaps hit 90F again in a few locales. Surface dew points will maintain readings in the low to mid 60s as well. In addition, relatively steep mid level lapse rates of around 7C/KM still exist in this sector. This combination has already led to 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE. To the northeast of this boundary, while there is expected to be little to no surface instability, there`s indication that elevated instability will move aloft, and MUCAPE values near 1000 J/KG may exist by late this afternoon and evening. There is ample wind shear across the region, although the highest values are displaced northward from the best instability, with 0-6KM values ranging from 30-40 knots in the warm sector to 50 knots across Maryland. The earlier uncertainty with regards to the capping inversion in place is being reduced as SPC Mesoanalysis is depicting lessening MLCIN across portions of WV, OH, and southwestern PA. Morning convection over Ohio/PA has likely set down some outflow boundaries, and those along with the frontal convergence will likely be enough to spark shower/thunderstorm development across OH/WV/PA again this afternoon, and spread eastward into eastern WV/MD/VA. If this does occur, a severe threat exists, with damaging winds and large hail the main threats in the warm sector, large hail on the cool side, and perhaps a low risk of an isolated tornado if a cell can move along the frontal boundary. Locally heavy rain will also occur. Convection will wane overnight, with lows from the upper 50s to low 60s. Areas of fog/mist and low ceilings are likely again on the cool side of the frontal boundary, which may settle back southwestward as it did last night to a position from Cumberland to Charlottesville.
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STW coming soon for a good part of the region http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0398.html Mesoscale Discussion 0398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018 Areas affected...portions of southeast OH...northern WV including Panhandle...western MD...southwest PA...northwest VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131756Z - 132000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and move southeast, with a risk for large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two will also be possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed prior to 20Z/4 pm EDT. DISCUSSION...Mesoanalysis at 17Z placed a nearly stationary front through central portions of OH and extending east/southeast into far northern VA. Strong diabatic heating of a moist boundary layer (lower/mid 60s surface dew points) combined with relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will result in pockets of moderate surface-based instability by mid afternoon. Latest visible imagery shows deepening cumulus clouds near/south of the front, and continued heating combined with weak frontal convergence should contribute to isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. Veering flow in the lowest 1-2 KM becomes largely unidirectional within the bulk of the cloud-bearing layer, with deep-layer shear ranging between 35-45 kts. Initial thunderstorm development may pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Slightly more favorable low-level shear near the front would suggest at least some risk for a tornado, especially within the first few hours of initiation. With time, a couple of small clusters of storms may move southeast with a risk for severe hail/wind. The area is being monitored for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, which may be needed prior to 20Z. ..Bunting/Grams.. 05/13/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
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04z HRRR still brings in an organized complex through the region from 08z to 12z
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02z HRRR brings a large complex through the region between 08z and 11z while 00z 12km NAM and 00z 3K NAM have basically nothing
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23z HRRR is decent complex rolling through around 5 to 6 am... looks stronger and more compact comparing it to 21z and 22z runs
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Looking back towards i81 corridor and just west of there... another line forming moving SE getting ready to enter NW VA
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Baltimore City and Harford and Baltimire county STW for hail quarter to golf ball size
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Can see outflow boundary approaching i95... looks like cap is breaking
