yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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Small cell just popped up to your NW
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Radarscope must be having issues with the hail markers... the Loudoun cell has a marker of 3.25" lol
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Just issued
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Almost seems like the storms in MD are slamming on the brakes... movement is a slow crawl to the south at 10mph or less
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Possible... but there were large amounts of SBCAPE and MLCAPE in front of the line.
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3" hail marker near FDK
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Storm that just got warned moving into Northern Loudoun county has 2" hail marker on it per radarscope
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Carroll/frederick county storms are now warned for golf ball to tennis ball sized hail
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Guess we shall see if they survive the trek to us
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Got a rotation marker NW of Westminister on radarscope
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STW Fauquier/Warren/Rappahannock counties... near Front Royal moving east
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Carroll and Frederick counties in MD STW now
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Moving our way?
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Surprised I am
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Did we just get put under a severe thunderstorm watch?
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HRRR tries to get some stuff going around 7pm
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Yeah HRRR tries to get storms into N VA and DC and MD... then develops another line across MD and holds it there with heavy rain
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New York State Mesonet Site at Beacon reported wind gust of 78mph at 420pm
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2000 SPC meso -- around 2500-3500 MLCAPE, 3000-4000 SBCAPE, LIs are -8 to -10, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1100-1200 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup
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I know its not in our area... but look at how fast the storm is moving Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 406 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 CTC001-009-NJC003-013-031-039-NYC071-079-087-119-152100- /O.CON.KOKX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180515T2100Z/ Fairfield CT-New Haven CT-Passaic NJ-Union NJ-Bergen NJ-Essex NJ- Westchester NY-Orange NY-Putnam NY-Rockland NY- 406 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD...NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN...PASSAIC... NORTHWESTERN UNION...BERGEN...ESSEX...WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES... At 405 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Wallkill to near High Point to near Dingmans Ferry to Stormville to near Tamaqua, moving east at 110 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated.
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1900 SPC meso -- around 2500-3000 MLCAPE, 3000-4000 SBCAPE, LIs are -7 to -9, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1000-1200 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup
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It looks like they barely do upon closer inspection
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Not sure why LWX was just grabbed into the MCD -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0430.html See the bottom ATTN WFO part... LWX doesn't have any counties in the watch box and isn't "circled" in the blue
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Yeah, I posted LWX afternoon disco about it in the May Disco Obs thread... they are saying 2-4 with up to 6" in some spots...
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Per 1800 SPC meso -- around 2000-2500 MLCAPE, 3000-4000 SBCAPE, LIs are -7 to -9, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1000-1200 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup Also appears that effective shear gets to around 35kts as we go into the evening... that will help some
