Jump to content

yoda

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    59,573

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by yoda

  1. yoda
    RAP/SfcOA FCST tries to get 4500-5000 SBCAPE into the region later this afternoon as well as 1200 DCAPE
  2. yoda
    I believe LWX mentioned it in their AFD as one of their delineation lines... but I-66 and N has a chance for a watch IMO as well this evening
  3. yoda
    STW all the way down to the MD/PA border URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 93 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western New York Pennsylvania * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of storms will intensify as it moves east from western Pennsylvania. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south southwest of Franklin PA to 45 miles east of Williamsport PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
  4. yoda
    It begins in the west URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 93 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western New York Pennsylvania * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of storms will intensify as it moves east from western Pennsylvania. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south southwest of Franklin PA to 45 miles east of Williamsport PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
  5. yoda
    PDS STW this evening?
  6. yoda
  7. yoda
    SPC drops SLGT risk for all except N MD
  8. yoda
  9. yoda
    Doubt it works well for storms... but I like the 12z HRDPS presentation from 21z and on ETA: 15z HRRR has said line... but its 01z-02z time period
  10. yoda
    Mesoscale Discussion 0423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018 Areas affected...Central and northern Pennsylvania into southern New York and southwest New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151543Z - 151815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms are likely to develop over the next several hours from central and northern Pennsylvania into southern New York, continuing into southern New England by late afternoon. Severe wind and hail are likely across all areas, with a few tornadoes possible mainly from northeast Pennsylvania into southern New England. As such, one or more severe and/or tornado watches will be needed today. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front across northwest PA into OH, with a pre-frontal trough across central NY into central PA. A progressive area of early-day thunderstorms has produced outflow across much of southern NY to near the northern PA border. Satellite imagery shows strong heating is occurring across the warm sector, with a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north across PA and NJ, and likely into southern NY later today. In addition, the aforementioned outflow will continue to modify, while likely maintaining some degree of enhanced low-level wind shear this afternoon. Thunderstorms currently exist along the cold front from western PA into western NY, and should continue a gradual increase in intensity as the air mass destabilizes to the east. In addition to these storms, other storms are expected to form near the surface trough, and perhaps atop the old outflow boundary. Deep-layer shear will favor cellular activity away from the cold front, while a mixed storm mode including bows or embedded supercells are possible along the front. Strong heating and steep lapse rates aloft will favor large hail, with an increasing damaging wind by the time storms organize into a line. Any cellular activity will be capable of large hail, perhaps very large, along with a few tornadoes where low-level shear is maximized. ..Jewell/Grams.. 05/15/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... PBZ...
  11. yoda
    The 1000 J/KG DCAPE line is into VA... almost looks wedge-like in its delineation lol
  12. yoda
    12z NAM NEST looks decent as well IMO for most of us
  13. yoda
    14z HRRR decent for most... even mappy gets in on some of the action... but its after 22z
  14. yoda
    13z HRRR is better... not sure about severe... but storms are around us
  15. yoda
    0/15/15 on 0600 Day 1 OTLK
  16. yoda
    Lol Wiz is chasing 5% tor and 30% hatched wind on 0600z SPC day 1 OTLK
  17. yoda
    Got a few strong to severe storms in NW VA
  18. yoda
    Thanks for your post... I agree with you. Nice to hear your thoughts
  19. yoda
    @andyhb What are you thinking for tomorrow? Another fireworks show?
  20. yoda
    Looks like storms will be coming from our NW or N tomorrow... which is a bit odd. Though I believe @high risk liked tomorrow?
  21. yoda
    Tomorrow looks great... until you see the crappy shear Though 4500 to 5000 SBCAPE and 4000 MLCAPE with LIs near -10 are okay
  22. yoda
    CWG reporting extensive wind damage in the western suburbs around Reston
  23. yoda
    Wonder if the reported and confirmed funnel cloud by the NWS will end up confirmed as a weak tornado in Loudoun earlier
  24. yoda
    NWS Employee reports golf ball sized hail 1 mile NE of Reston at 635pm
  25. yoda
    https://twitter.com/iembot_lwx/status/996156139644575745?s=20 NWS Employee reported a funnel cloud in Ashburn at 619pm
×
×
  • Create New...