yoda

Storm spotters report 3.25 inch hail with the storm in SW SD near Pine Ridge

I know I posted them in the July discobs thread... but what do you think of the 00z NAM and 00z 3km NAM soundings at DCA for 00z SAT? According to the possible hazard type, both show TOR... guess there might be a slight chance for a weak spinup?

Very boring winter that was

Going to be kind of hard for a hurricane to develop when NHC has no signs of tropical activity for the next 5 days

Oh, okay. I apologize for making it seem like you knew more -- that's my fault.

I think mappy would probably know more fwiw... but yeah I think he just needed a break -- I think we all did at times with the way the winter went around here lol. I hope he comes back for the winter, but I dunno if he will

I know others have said its just coincidence and no real correlation... but every 3 to 4 winters we always seem to have a "big" snowstorm of at least or around a foot of snow in the region. Years being 1979, 1983, 1987, (nothing between 1988 and 1992) 1993, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009-2010, 2013, 2016... 2019?

@nrgjeff Mod risk... good luck!

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN IL/IN...CENTRAL/WESTERN KY...MIDDLE/WESTERN TN...NORTHERN MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the MIssissippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Synopsis... An anomalously strong deep layer trough and associated surface cyclone are expected to move southeastward from the upper Midwest into portions of the lower Great Lakes on Friday. The surface pattern will be complicated by one or more convectively-induced outflow boundaries, with a synoptic-scale surface trough/cold front expected to progress eastward south of the surface low through the period. A stout EML will spread eastward from the southern Plains over rich low-level moisture, resulting in a volatile thermodynamic environment developing over portions of the MS/TN/OH River Valleys and the Midwest. ...MS/TN/OH River Valleys into the Midwest... A potentially significant severe thunderstorm episode is possible across portions of the MS/TN/OH Valleys and the Midwest on Friday, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution through the period. One or more clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning, though the remnants of these clusters are expected to push east through the day, allowing for moderate-to-strong destabilization in their wake. The strongest focus for convection will be the surface trough moving through IL/IN/OH, though this area will be somewhat removed from the stronger shear and instability, especially with northward extent. Foci for convective initiation will be more subtle further south and west, but the environment will also be much more volatile, with strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg possible) and effective shear (45-60 kt) in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon, potentially along the trailing surface boundary and also evolving out any early day elevated convection. Initially discrete storm modes will favor large hail (potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter), along with damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. With time, evolution into one or more upscale-growing clusters is expected into the evening. Any such clusters would be capable of producing damaging wind swaths as they propagate to the southeast. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced ..Dean/Dial.. 07/19/2018

@nrgjeff @jaxjagman

LMK was going all in in morning disco it would appear

Then you will like how SPC went ENH: Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... An upper-level trough will move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday as an unseasonably strong mid-level jet moves through the southwestern side of the system. At the surface, a low is forecast to move east-southeastward across northern Illinois during the day as a cold front advances eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass should be in place with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F. This should enable a corridor of moderate to strong instability to develop ahead of the front by afternoon. As low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorms are forecast to form during the early to mid afternoon in the mid Mississippi Valley with the storms moving southeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings for Paducah, KY, Evansville, IN and Louisville, KY at 00Z on Saturday show MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 kt and steep mid-level lapse rates. This environment should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches will be possible with the most intense cells. As the low-level jet strengthens during the early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. This should be enough for a tornado threat with the more dominant supercells. Storm coverage is expected to increase markedly by early evening as an MCS organizes across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. In response, the wind-damage threat should gradually increase during the late afternoon and early evening as supercells or bowing line segments move southeastward across the instability corridor. At this time, the models are in good agreement concerning Friday's scenario. The environment will likely support a substantial severe threat across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys so this outlook includes an upgrade to enhanced risk. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Broyles.. 07/19/2018

Inside your cat eh? Typing while driving

Through the first 15 days of July (and in fact, the 16th also), only a trace of rain was observed at Reagan National Airport. This is the only time on record, dating back to 1871, that no measurable rain fell in the first 15 days of July. The old low benchmark of 0.08" was set in 1900. Normal rainfall for the first 15 days of July is 1.86 inches, and back in 1905, the wettest first 15 days of July brought 7.05" of rain. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/dryjuly2018

Wiz would be dancing naked if he saw that today

Where's Wiz?

BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 ...BRAZEN BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...NOW FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 46.5W ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Beryl, as hurricane watches could be needed for some of the islands by tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 46.5 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Beryl is expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea. Beryl is a compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 Beryl is a compact hurricane that had a pinhole eye for a few hours before more recently becoming cloud filled again. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.0/65 kt at 12Z, but the Dvorak technique is constrained by width requirements of the convective cloud tops. That may not be applicable in this case given Beryl's extremely small size. By disregarding the width constraints, TAFB was able to provide a data-T number of T4.5/77 kt. As a compromise, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt. Beryl has not gained much latitude and is still moving quickly westward with a 12-hour motion estimate of 275/13 kt. Mid-level ridging over the subtropical Atlantic is expected to steer Beryl on a westward to west-northwestward course through the forecast period. An acceleration is forecast to begin in 36-48 hours once Beryl becomes situated to the south of the core of the mid-level anticyclone. Some of the track models have already shown a northward bias since the cyclone formed yesterday, and the updated NHC track forecast is therefore south of the typically better- performing models. This new forecast is not too different from the previous NHC track and is also just south of the HCCA model and the various model consensus aids. Despite the SHIPS model diagnostics showing increasing shear in a few days, global model fields show a well-defined upper-level anticyclone following the system at least for the next 3 days. Although Beryl's expected acceleration may contribute to some increased shear, the SHIPS model is also probably calculating deep-layer shear over too large an area to accurately capture the shear isolated to the cyclone's scale. Given that, the NHC intensity forecast is at or above nearly all of the guidance through 48 hours, which is also higher than what we've been depicting in previous forecasts. Needless to say, it's becoming more likely that Beryl will maintain hurricane strength when it reaches the Lesser Antilles between 48 and 72 hours. The cyclone is also now likely to persist beyond the 72-hour forecast point, and a 96-hour point has therefore been added to the official forecast, showing Beryl near or over Hispaniola by day 4. By that point, either increased shear or the terrain of Hispaniola would likely lead to dissipation. But we shall see. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is now expected to be a hurricane when it moves through the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are increasing. However, Beryl is a very small hurricane, and it is too early to determine exactly where those impacts will occur. Hurricane watches could be needed for portions of the Lesser Antilles as soon as tonight. 2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 10.7N 46.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 11.3N 47.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 12.2N 50.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 13.3N 53.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 14.2N 56.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 16.2N 64.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 18.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Beryl up to 65 mph at 11pm advisory... still expected to dissipate before reaching the islands

Going to be a boring quick TS... gone in like 72 hrs

Hmmmm... from morning AFD from LWX:

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 227 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018 SDC021-045-049-089-107-129-040800- /O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-180704T0800Z/ Edmunds SD-Faulk SD-Campbell SD-Potter SD-McPherson SD-Walworth SD- 227 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR WESTERN EDMUNDS...WESTERN FAULK...CAMPBELL...EASTERN POTTER... WESTERN MCPHERSON AND EASTERN WALWORTH COUNTIES... At 226 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Strasburg to 7 miles north of Java to 6 miles northwest of Lebanon, moving northeast at 65 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Eureka, Selby, Bowdle, Herreid, Hoven, Roscoe, Pollock, Hosmer, Java, Mound City, Lebanon, Seneca, Tolstoy, Onaka, Artas, Hillsview, Lake Hiddenwood Rec Area, Greenway and New Town Corner. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4495 9932 4494 9977 4522 9981 4540 9996 4557 10016 4566 10033 4571 10031 4587 10039 4594 10049 4594 9931 TIME...MOT...LOC 0726Z 203DEG 56KT 4608 10015 4561 9986 4512 9989 HAIL...<.75IN WIND... 90MPH

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 215 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018 SDC021-031-129-040745- /O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-180704T0745Z/ Corson SD-Campbell SD-Walworth SD- 215 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM CDT/145 AM MDT/ FOR NORTHEASTERN CORSON...CENTRAL CAMPBELL AND NORTHWESTERN WALWORTH COUNTIES... At 213 AM CDT/113 AM MDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located near Kenel, or 18 miles north of Mobridge, moving northeast at 60 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Herreid, Pollock, Mound City, Artas and Kenel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across north central South Dakota. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4558 10026 4578 10068 4595 10057 4594 9972 TIME...MOT...LOC 0713Z 217DEG 50KT 4580 10034 HAIL...1.25IN WIND...90MPH

Yikes... STW from Rapid City SD states hail to ping pong ball size and wind gusts to 90mph BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1048 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2018 The National Weather Service in Rapid City has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Haakon County in west central South Dakota... Southern Ziebach County in west central South Dakota... East central Meade County in west central South Dakota... Northeastern Pennington County in west central South Dakota... * Until midnight MDT * At 1047 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Plainview to 8 miles northeast of Creighton to 8 miles north of Wall, moving east at 55 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Locations impacted include... Cherry Creek, Milesville, Grindstone, Creighton, Bridger, Kirley, Howes, Ottumwa, Billsburg, Takini School and Grindstone Butte. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4407 10222 4432 10221 4456 10232 4484 10114 4476 10113 4469 10113 4469 10116 4417 10116 TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 253DEG 48KT 4454 10228 4433 10207 4411 10220 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...1.50IN WIND...90MPH

Looks like a few storms were able to get going... but not many