yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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21z SPEC balloon from LWX at KIAD says no
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STW Northern Carroll/Frederick/Baltimore/Harford counties
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Lancaster/York County storm has rotation with it per severe tstorm warning
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The first Day 1 OTLK from SPC should be interesting to see... I expect something like 5 tor/15 hail/30 wind... but with ML Lapse Rates nearing 7.0 C/KM and even higher in some areas due to an EML in the area... wouldn't be surprised to see a 30% hail tossed in. Tor probs will probably stay at 5% until later in the day
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NE of BWI on 00z NAM NEST at 22z THUR nearby Aberdeen, MD... jesus
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Good disco from LWX about tomorrow... I like that we will have a cap in place so we won't lose our chances on morning/early afternoon shower crap.
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Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Fri May 11 2018 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds and some hail will be possible through Saturday night near and south of the Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley and portions of the northern Mid Atlantic Coast region. ...Synopsis... Models remain consistent with the evolution of the mid/upper level flow pattern across the contiguous U.S. for the Day 2 forecast period. A large upper low will encompass much of the Intermountain West and adjacent portions of the Rockies and Pacific Coast states. At the same time, seasonably strong northwesterly mid/upper flow is expected to persist across much of Canada into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic States. A series of midlevel perturbations translating through the base of the western upper low will track from the upper Mississippi Valley through the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic region Saturday and Saturday night. At the surface, a front is expected to advance south through the Ohio Valley into western/central PA, while the eastern extent of this boundary shifts north from MD into southeast PA, and extend into NJ. Farther west, this front is expected to remain nearly stationary from central IL to far northern MO, and southwest through KS, intersecting a dryline in the eastern OK Panhandle and adjacent southern KS. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic States... Severe probabilities and categorical risk have been upgraded across the upper Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic region. Boundary layer moistening is expected in advance of the southward advancing surface boundary, while strong diabatic heating and the eastern extent of a steep midlevel lapse rate plume contribute to moderate instability across the warm sector Saturday afternoon. Mainly elevated storms are expected to be ongoing north of the surface front at the start of Day 2, with activity becoming surface based as the boundary advances south into the destabilizing environment. Moderately strong deep-layer west-northwesterlies suggest line segments/bowing structures will be the primary storm mode, though effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt indicates embedded supercells will also be possible. There is increasing concern and confidence for several swaths of damaging winds across the upper Ohio Valley to the northern Mid Atlantic region, as suggested by several CAMs. A midlevel perturbation is expected to move through these areas during peak heating increasing the likelihood for thunderstorm development. A tornado threat will be possible across northern MD into southeast PA and adjacent NJ and DE, as low-level shear increases to the east and northeast of a surface low tracking into MD and along the warm front. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 15% - Slight ..Peters.. 05/11/2018
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Calling @Eskimo Joe and @Kmlwx...
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I think you will like the 1730 SPC disco for Day 2... enhanced risk for you
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12z GFS likes Saturday... Sunday... and Monday This is a sounding just north of EZF at 21z on Sunday
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12z NAM NEST showing ML Lapse Rates around 7.5 C/KM... suggests to me remnant EML and possibly a chance of some large hail bigger than quarters... esp with SHIP over 2.0. Best chance would be in MD
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lol Loudoun County sounding from 06z NAM NEST at 19z SAT:
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More rain and severe threats Monday and Tuesday
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Guess there must be weak rotation in the Northern Harford county storm as the Severe Weather Statement states "remain alert for a possible tornado"
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Looks like DC region gets one more shot with the warned storms off in Fauquier/Culpepper/NW Prince William
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There's been baseball sized hail around here before
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ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 418 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 418 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Purcellville, or 9 miles northwest of Leesburg, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Damascus, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick, New Market, Green Valley, Point Of Rocks, Linganore-Bartonsville, Clarksburg, Adamstown, Buckeystown, Monrovia, Barnesville, Ijamsville, Doubs, Park Mills, Dickerson, Beallsville and Tuscarora.
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Looks like a sup split in Loudoun County
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Heavy hail core with the NW Loudoun cell... white pixels showing up on radar
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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 412 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 VAC043-107-WVC037-102045- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180510T2045Z/ Loudoun VA-Clarke VA-Jefferson WV- 412 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL LOUDOUN...EAST CENTRAL CLARKE AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES... At 412 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Round Hill, or 9 miles southeast of Charles Town, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Purcellville, Round Hill, Bluemont, Hillsboro and Lincoln. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows. && LAT...LON 3910 7785 3916 7788 3921 7771 3909 7769 TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 250DEG 30KT 3915 7778 HAIL...2.50IN WIND...60MPH
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Oh sh*t Severe Thunderstorm Warning VAC107-102100- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0015.180510T2010Z-180510T2100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 410 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 409 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bluemont, or 9 miles south of Charles Town, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Purcellville, Brunswick, Lovettsville, Hillsboro, Paeonian Springs, Waterford, Neersville, Lucketts and Taylorstown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Get indoors to protect yourself from wind and lightning. Trees around you may be downed from damaging winds, so if you are near large trees, move to an interior room on the lowest floor. Don`t drive underneath trees or in wooded areas until the threat has passed. This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3930 7759 3931 7757 3928 7756 3926 7754 3925 7749 3923 7747 3921 7746 3919 7748 3918 7751 3914 7753 3914 7782 3925 7777 3932 7766 TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 262DEG 21KT 3914 7785 HAIL...2.50IN WIND...60MPH
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Maybe? BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 353 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... North central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... East central Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 351 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ranson, or near Charles Town, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Charles Town, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick, Ranson, Braddock Heights, Harpers Ferry, Point Of Rocks, Adamstown, Jefferson, Myersville, Lovettsville, Buckeystown, Shenandoah Junction, Rosemont, Rohrersville, Burkittsville, Gapland, Brownsville and Antietam.
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Prob should watch that line out by I-81 for anything severe in our area later
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Wind damage reported in Page County with the Fauquier/Culpeper severe warned storm per SWS evere Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 249 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 VAC047-061-157-101915- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-180510T1915Z/ Fauquier VA-Rappahannock VA-Culpeper VA- 249 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL FAUQUIER...CENTRAL RAPPAHANNOCK AND NORTH CENTRAL CULPEPER COUNTIES... At 248 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm with a history of producing wind damage was located 7 miles northeast of Sperryville, or 14 miles south of Front Royal, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. This storm caused tree damage in Page County. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Hume, Flint Hill, Washington, Hackleys Crossroads, Amissville, Ashville, Cresthill, Orlean and Ada.
