yoda

Oh come on... LWX afternoon AFD re Thursday potential:

Not a bad sounding for 21z THUR from 12z NAM

LWX morning disco re Thursday severe risk:

From SPC Day 4- 8 OTLK

LWX AFD from this morning... probably a meh for Thursday afternoon, but still:

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today east of the lower Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley and western portions of New England. This includes a threat for widespread damaging winds, as well as tornadoes across parts of New York and Vermont. ...NY/PA into New England... Progressive, compact shortwave trough continues to move quickly towards the Lower Great Lakes. Strong forcing for ascent along the leading edge of this system has resulted in banded thunderstorm development across Lower MI and adjacent portions of the Upper OH Valley. Numerous severe gusts (i.e. greater than 50 kt) were measured around the DTX as this line moved through. This convection has weakened somewhat as it moves across the cool water of Lake Erie but it is expected to re-intensify quickly once it moves into the steep low-level lapse rate environment over western NY and the Finger Lakes region. Additionally, storm coverage has increased south of Lake Erie across northern OH, with this activity expected to pose a downstream wind damage threat. Given current storm and environmental trends, a swath of significant wind gusts looks probable from BUF to BTV where very strong winds (60 to 70 kt) will exist just above the surface (i.e. 500m to 1000 km AGL) over the next few hours. Recent BUF VAD sampled the leading edge of this stronger flow, measuring 50 kt around 750m. Expectation is for these winds to mix down as the convective line moves through. As a result, 45% wind probabilities were delineated across the region where the best overlap of convective coverage, steep low-level lapse rates, and instability exists. This result in an upgrade to Moderate Risk from western NY northeastward into the Adirondacks. As discussed in the previous outlook (appended below), isolated/discrete cells are still possible over northeast NY as favorable kinematics align with sufficient instability. Tornado Watch 76 was recent issued to cover this threat. More short-term details can be found in MCD 350.

MOD RISK!!!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 76 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast New York Much of Vermont * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may pose a risk of isolated tornadoes and a damaging wind gusts. Later this afternoon and evening, the potential for widespread damaging winds will also increase as storms approach from the west.

Guaranteed EF2 for in the 10 percent tor zone now since Wiz will miss it

Mesoscale Discussion 0350 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018 Areas affected...Portions of northern NY...VT...NH...and far western ME Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 041818Z - 041945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes is increasing this afternoon, and damaging winds will become likely with a line of thunderstorms moving in from the west. Tornado watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A sub-996 mb surface low over Lake Michigan as of 18Z will continue developing northeastward into southern Ontario/Quebec this afternoon as a compact mid-level shortwave trough evident on water vapor satellite imagery moves over the same general area. Recent subjective surface analysis shows a warm front extending eastward from the low across northern NY/VT into central NH. A moist low-level airmass characterized by dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s exists to the south of the front. Current expectations are for the warm front to lift northward to the international border through the remainder of the afternoon. Even though some mid/high-level clouds are present across this region, filtered diurnal heating has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s across central NY. Although mid-level lapse rates remain generally modest (around 6-6.5 degrees C/km in the 700-500 mb layer), they are sufficient coupled with the diurnal heating to support MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg this afternoon and early evening. A very strong mid-level jet of 80-100+ kt will overspread this region through peak heating, and effective bulk shear values of 50-70 kt will strongly favor updraft rotation with any thunderstorms that can form along the warm front or within the open warm sector. The threat for a few tornadoes should be focused along and just south of the warm front, namely northern NY into VT and parts of NH, where effective SRH values will likely exceed 250 m2/s2. Damaging winds, perhaps widespread, will also be a substantial concern as a line of thunderstorms will likely move from west to east across this region through 02-03Z along/ahead of a cold front. ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/04/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/09June2004/09June2004.pdf Pages 1 and 2

Could have been a MOD risk day if better CAPE @weatherwiz

Hurry Wiz! To VT!

Wiz headed to Albany or Vermont today?

I dont think DPs are going to get into the mid 60s for Wiz today https://mobile.twitter.com/antmasiello/status/992102251471757312

1630 OTLK for Wiz from SPC:

Going to be a long while methinks before we see any real chance for a severe storm... or even a thunderstorm for that matter

Another tornado warning near Powhatan/Goochland/Amelia counties

Tornado damage in Lynchburg https://mobile.twitter.com/DonaldEatmon/status/985682664308072453

23z HRRR has us getting back into the mid 60s by 7z

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 833 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Madison County in northwestern Virginia... Orange County in central Virginia... East central Albemarle County in central Virginia... Southern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... Western Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 915 PM EDT * At 831 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Stanardsville to near Troy to Lakeside Village, moving north northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Culpeper, Orange, Gordonsville, Brightwood, Mine Run, Stevensburg, Oakpark, Barboursville, Verdiersville, Everona, Montpelier Station, Locust Grove, Flat Run, Thornhill, Nasons, Winston, Madison Mills, Montford, Mitchells and Glenora.

Another STW issued by LWX for CHO... and Rockingham and Nelson and Augusta and Albermarle County

Way to early to say that