yoda
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Oh sh*t Severe Thunderstorm Warning VAC107-102100- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0015.180510T2010Z-180510T2100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 410 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 409 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bluemont, or 9 miles south of Charles Town, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Purcellville, Brunswick, Lovettsville, Hillsboro, Paeonian Springs, Waterford, Neersville, Lucketts and Taylorstown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Get indoors to protect yourself from wind and lightning. Trees around you may be downed from damaging winds, so if you are near large trees, move to an interior room on the lowest floor. Don`t drive underneath trees or in wooded areas until the threat has passed. This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3930 7759 3931 7757 3928 7756 3926 7754 3925 7749 3923 7747 3921 7746 3919 7748 3918 7751 3914 7753 3914 7782 3925 7777 3932 7766 TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 262DEG 21KT 3914 7785 HAIL...2.50IN WIND...60MPH
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Maybe? BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 353 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... North central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... East central Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 351 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ranson, or near Charles Town, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Charles Town, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick, Ranson, Braddock Heights, Harpers Ferry, Point Of Rocks, Adamstown, Jefferson, Myersville, Lovettsville, Buckeystown, Shenandoah Junction, Rosemont, Rohrersville, Burkittsville, Gapland, Brownsville and Antietam.
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Prob should watch that line out by I-81 for anything severe in our area later
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Wind damage reported in Page County with the Fauquier/Culpeper severe warned storm per SWS evere Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 249 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 VAC047-061-157-101915- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-180510T1915Z/ Fauquier VA-Rappahannock VA-Culpeper VA- 249 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL FAUQUIER...CENTRAL RAPPAHANNOCK AND NORTH CENTRAL CULPEPER COUNTIES... At 248 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm with a history of producing wind damage was located 7 miles northeast of Sperryville, or 14 miles south of Front Royal, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. This storm caused tree damage in Page County. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Hume, Flint Hill, Washington, Hackleys Crossroads, Amissville, Ashville, Cresthill, Orlean and Ada.
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STW for Culpepper/Fauquier should be headed right towards DC in about an hour... the storm in W MD thats warned (Garrett County STW) should move through MD near the Mason-Dixon Line as it moves east
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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 222 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 VAC003-125-540-101845- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180510T1845Z/ Nelson VA-City of Charlottesville VA-Albemarle VA- 222 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN NELSON AND CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTIES AND THE SOUTHERN CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE... At 221 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Troy to 8 miles south of Crozet, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...City of Charlottesville 911 Center has reported damaging winds within the City limits. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Charlottesville, Campbell, Scottsville, Esmont, Cobham, Cismont, North Garden, Covesville, Boyd Tavern, Woodridge, Monticello, Keswick, Shadwell, Glendower, Keene, Overton and Alberene. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... These storms are producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.
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70/20 wind... 30/30 (mod/mod) hail
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 78 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Thu May 10 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Northern Maryland North-central North Carolina Much of Virginia The Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming over eastern West Virginia and western Virginia. These storms will spread eastward this afternoon across the watch area, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.
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SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED
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Mesoscale Discussion 0374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu May 10 2018 Areas affected...much of Virginia...Maryland and northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101636Z - 101830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon with initial storms over the central Appalachians then spreading into the Middle Atlantic including VA, MD and northern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts should be the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a few thunderstorms are developing along the central through southern Appalachians forced by heating over the higher terrain. Strong diabatic warming within the the downstream warm sector with weakening convective inhibition and dewpoints from the upper 50s to near 60 F should support 800-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Steepening 0-3 km lapse rates with inverted-V boundary layer characteristics, along with 30-40 kt southwesterly flow between 1-4 km will support locally strong downdrafts as storms develop east off the higher terrain. Weak vertical shear (around 30 kt between 0-6 km) will promote multicell storm modes with locally strong to damaging wind gusts as storms evolve into short lines segments and clusters this afternoon and early evening. ..Dial/Hart.. 05/10/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
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2/5/15 from 1630 SPC OTLK... sounds like damaging wind gusts are our main threat with maybe an isolated storm producing large hail or a weak spinup
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12z NAM NEST brings through 2 separate lines.... one around 19z and the final one around 01z
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Looks like 06z GFS tries hard to bring us a plume of EML/remnant plume of EML for Monday... ML Lapse Rates are 7.0 to 8.0 C/KM Monday afternoon into evening
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Sun is trying to come out here... LWX AFD talks about a squall line:
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Incoming derecho that evening That's exactly how I missed the last derecho -- traveling to FL that morning for vacation with family
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12z GFS likes Monday afternoon into the evening though lol
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12z GFS around DCA at 21z THUR
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I'd go with NAM/NAM NEST We'll see what the HRRR comes up with later this evening
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Thinking we get upgraded to SLGT risk on the Day 2 1730 OTLK
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Decent as well... 12z NAM NEST UHI swaths through 02z FRI:
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12z NAM NEST sim radar decent... drives in some crappy showers around 15z... then blows up storms over us around 20z to 21z... has what looks to be maybe a sup in C MD at 22z... then drives one more small line or cell through DC around 02z
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weather.cod.edu has some nice supercell composite and fixed layer sig tor over the region around 21z THUR
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00z NAM is pretty nice lol... over 3000 SBCAPE, 40 knots 0-6km shear, MLCAPE 1500 to 2000, and ML Lapse Rates approaching 7.0 C/KM at KIAD at 21z THUR Even EHI is above 3 and supercell potential 72% lol
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I like all the SIG in the Supercell portion of the SARS
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Just wait till he tells us about the WSWs for 1 to 2 feet of snow from Miller B's that he will be getting while we down here get WWAs for 1 to 2 inches Agree with @losetoa6... Davis VP2 should work well for you
