yoda

Surprise still a TD at 11 lol... disco explains why

Freeze Warnings in N ME tonight... is that early? Lows in the upper 20s expected in the colder areas looks like as well

And landfall too? Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA... Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Brown

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 95.4W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Sargent to Port Bolivar. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent to Port Bolivar A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 95.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move farther inland tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves onshore. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area this afternoon and evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

NHC only has a yellow tag on it... 30% before "landfall" late tonight... Maybe it will be reviewed after the season but I think its too late This was the NHC 8am disco on it:

I don't think it will have enough time to develop into a TD before it moves inland later tonight

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized this morning. Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the satellite estimates. The depression is forecast to move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable upper-level environment. The only negative factor for intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models. Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the next few days. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest ECMWF. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 12.9N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 13.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 14.7N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 15.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.3N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 18.2N 59.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 20.2N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 44.9W ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 44.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it approaches the northern Leeward Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

Advisories will begin at 11am per NHC

I dont think that LWX will change anything though

I dunno... radarscope has the line reformed and heading towards us

May get a quick shower... its getting a little dark here

Pretty nice line approaching the i95 corridor

Oooooh a very dangerous storm designation! Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 343 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 VAC043-061-107-112015- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0654.000000T0000Z-190911T2015Z/ Loudoun VA-Clarke VA-Fauquier VA- 343 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUDOUN...SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE AND NORTH CENTRAL FAUQUIER COUNTIES... At 342 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Delaplane, or 17 miles east of Front Royal, moving east at 35 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. Locations impacted include... Sky Meadows State Park, Paris, and Upperville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3889 7797 3907 7796 3906 7789 3902 7766 3880 7781 3884 7793 TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 271DEG 32KT 3899 7787 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...80MPH

Maybe I95 corridor in next couple of hours? Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 337 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 VAC043-061-107-187-112015- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0654.000000T0000Z-190911T2015Z/ Loudoun VA-Clarke VA-Warren VA-Fauquier VA- 337 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUDOUN...SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE...NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN FAUQUIER COUNTIES... At 337 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Delaplane, or 12 miles east of Front Royal, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Middleburg, The Plains, Delaplane, Linden, Marshall, Saint Louis, Howellsville, Rectortown, Blue Mountain, Halfway, Upperville, Markham, Bethel, Ashville, Paris and Ada. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3890 7808 3901 7808 3906 7801 3907 7797 3906 7789 3902 7766 3880 7781 3886 7800 TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 286DEG 16KT 3898 7797 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...70MPH

EURO 1006mb SLP vs GFS 954mb Plus EURO comes from a devloping low off of the just NW of PR at 192... GFS has the TC from before the Windward Islands

12z EURO would like to know about these tropical systems you are talking about... finally develops a weak system Days 9 and 10... but it's nothing like the 12z GFS -- not even close

Is turtlehurricane okay? Haven't seen him since Dorian roared by

Good to see you again

93/71/100 at DCA as of 2pm... yuck

Nope... it will be close, but stay just offshore

STW it is... good luck -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0634.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Southern Maine New Hampshire Northern New Jersey Southern and Eastern New York Eastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of intensifying thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front. Adequate instability along with very strong deep-layer winds will yield the potential for storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out mainly across southeast New York into southern New England. The severe risk will diminish from west to east across the region by early/mid-evening.

And limelight