yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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New Day 2 is out... ENH reaches up to around EZF... 10% hatched TOR includes CHO/RIC and is also just south of EZF
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18z EURO was pretty nice per @losetoa6 re SBCAPE
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45 now into DC... 60 getting closer to EZF on 21z SREFs
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Even cutting in half... still ridiculous
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As in like > 1000 J/KG? How much we talking lol
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Not going to post them as there are many -- but the soundings across the region from the 18z NAM at 18z MON are just ridiculously silly. Something we see maybe once in a long while
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So... who's staying up tonight for the 00z NAM run and the new Day 2 outlook?
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Well the afternoon AFD from LWX seems to be leaning that way IMO with its severe talk
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Wouldn't be surprised to see ENH for us on Day 2 tonight and MOD down in the Carolinas... maybe into S VA
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New day 3 map
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LWX states severe threat is increasing in their afternoon AFD
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Regular 12z NAM soundings at 18z MON were not pretty looking at the soundings across the region... suxh as BWI/IAD/DCA/EZF... SBCAPE likely overdone, but even half of what it shows would be dangerous around here
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CWG posted an article about the threat https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1249032861379936257
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I think 60% wind is needed for high risk
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New day 3 OTLK disco adds even more intrigue for our region lol
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Intriguing disco as well for our region from the morning Day 2 OTLK:
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Day 3 OTLK should be intriguing to see in about an hour... but here is the new day 2:
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MDT remains on new Day 2... but HIGH upgrade is discussed
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From the 21z SREFs on the SPC website:
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Even at 21z MON across the region, 00z NAM is still printing out SBCAPE values around 2000 with pretty good deep layer shear
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That is not a very friendly sounding at KCHO at 15z MON from tonights 00z NAM
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Plus 18z NAM is trying hard for around 2000+ SBCAPE at 18z and 21z MON across the region... along with 40 to 50 kts of deep layer shear... plus looks like there is still some leftover low level shear too at 18z and 21z ETA: plus having 180 to 200 J/KG of MLCAPE at the 0-3km level isn't good
