yoda

hmmmm

LWX AFD from this morning .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Uncertainty remains in the track of the coastal low pressure system poised to move north Friday and into this weekend. Confidence is increasing in a potential impactful event for the majority of the Mid-Atlantic coast and further across New England. A deep, digging trough will move eastward Friday into Saturday. This, coupled with the surface low will bring the threat for impactful snow to most of the area. To start with, by late Thursday night a period of upslope snow showers should begin for the Allegheny Front as the upper trough begins to move further east. At this point, it is increasingly likely that the Allegheny Front will see a prolonged snowfall through late Friday given the upper level low and however the surface low influences that portion of the area. The snow will continue to track further east throughout the day Friday and totals will be greatly impacted by the position and timing of the coastal low and the upper level low. There continues to be discontinuity in the exact position of a coastal low set to form near the Carolinas. Latest ensemble means for the position of the low remain in disagreement in terms of timing and intensity. Snowfall totals for the 00z EPS show a more bullish approach with a closer low track vs the 00z GEFS (3-5" difference across portions of southern MD). Deterministic guidance continues to show most of the higher totals across the Delmarva Peninsula and further north-east. Should the track move further west, then areas like southern MD and the I-95 corridor may see significant changes in potential impacts and snowfall totals. Guidance will continue to zero in on a potential track over the next few days. To summarize, confidence is high on an accumulating snowfall across most of the area but remains low with regards to totals, especially the I-95 corridor and southern MD. Another important component of this system will be the gusty winds with a tightening gradient ahead of the system falling into place. The increased winds and falling temperatures will most likely warrant Wind Chill Watches/Warnings/Advisories Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures will most likely fail to reach 30F during this time period with wind chills in the negatives (-15 to -20 across portions of the Allegheny Front) during the night.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php Out to 60

Oh I'm not expecting a foot here... something like maybe 4 to 8 would be nice and I still think we have a chance at that. If its 2-4... so be it and that's nice as well

Sounds good... so we just need a slightly faster phase then. Not the end of the world as you say, and still time

That's good so far...

So 2-4 inches or more on the 00z NAM/GFS/GGEM so far tonight... we take but want more

3 to 5 along i95 corridor BWI to EZF... 5 to 8 just east of DC into S MD

06z GEFS at 90 h5 looks much better on TT IMO compared to 00z at 96

Yup all day every day

Lol... I'll go with @CAPE

06z RGEM kicks all the energy out at 84 h5

Morning AFD from LWX regarding the potential event By Friday, a deep trough will continue to move further east. Confidence has continued to increase on the negative tilt nature of this trough over the last few runs as it reaches the east coast. The 18/00z runs of the GEFS has backed off the center of low pressure being closer to the coast whereas the EPS/NBM are trending a bit more north-west. A more westward trend could bring a more widespread significant snowfall for portions of the area. For now, there still seems to be some discontinuity in the guidance as to the position of the low which will greatly impacts the snow totals that are received within the Mid-Atlantic region. This system is not a slam dunk by any means with a lack of blocking in the northern Atlantic. Nonetheless, the overall pattern for the event seems to be honing in on a snowy solution for much of the area with areas closer to the I-95 corridor having the higher totals for now, given where the best forcing/moisture availability resides. Do expect the Alleghenies to receive a fairly consistent snowfall for the event due to upsloping. Given the uncertainties with this event, have kept PoPs through Saturday evening but with a potentially fast moving track on pace, we may see conditions begin to dramatically improve during the day on Saturday. Other story will be the winds with this system with a tight gradient between the strong Arctic high pressure that will bring frigid cold temperatures Thursday and as it departs and the upper trough begins to build into the area. Coupled with these winds will be frigid cold temperatures, especially Saturday night into Sunday. Wind chill values may become more widespread in the negatives, even east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Wind Chill Watches/Warnings/Advisories may be needed.

h/t @ORH_wxman

Another small shift west or slightly earlier full phase...

We wouldn't get as much snow as further N and E... but still blizzard conditions would be possible i95 corridor and east 105 to 114

50 to 60 kts at 925mb at 108 and 114 hours is nothing to sneeze at either

00z EPS now just got VERY interesting

I'm guessing either if the SLP was like 50 miles more west we'd do alot better? Or if the full phase was like 6 hours earlier then we'd really be crushed?

Is that what I think I see at 90? Do I see a stronger phase?

Definitely going to be west of 12z... thats for sure looking at 72 h5