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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Tuesday of next week at 18z temps per 12z Euro zoomed in
  2. yoda
    Luckily its a dry heat lol. Sounding at DCA at 18z WED at 222 hours says it's 102/53
  3. yoda
    SLGT risk on the afternoon OTLK was yanked a good 100 to 200 miles to the NW compared to the morning OTLK for the Day 2
  4. yoda
    Hmmm from the new Day 2 OTLK at 1730z Central Appalachians/Mid Atlantic/Carolina Piedmont... A cluster(s) of thunderstorms, potentially in the form of an organized MCS, may be underway across the central Appalachians at the start of the period. Regardless of early storm mode, the manifestation of Day 1 convection will be embedded in the modest mid-level flow (along with 20-30 kts of deep-layer shear) while progressing southeast into a diurnally heated, destabilizing airmass. 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the ongoing storms. In addition, a mixing boundary-layer will also support efficient cold pool production should a more substantial MCS materialize, with damaging gusts a concern. A Category 2/Slight Risk has been maintained across portions of the Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas. Should confidence increase in a more organized, sustained MCS becoming established in the morning hours upstream of the aforementioned buoyancy, a Category 3/Enhanced risk may be needed. Also, some CAM guidance hints at considerable southwestward propagation of MCS convection into SC and a southwestward expansion of the Slight Risk is also possible in future Day 1 Outlooks.
  5. yoda
    Tornado Warning NE Albemarle County
  6. yoda
    Not sure if posted... but 12z FV3 Hi-Res was a nice hit across the region from 10z to 13z... 18z RGEM FWIW looked like a DC-BWI metro hit from 12z to 15z... 18z HRRR was faster, coming into the region around 05z out west, but then hanging around (backbuilding?) until 13z
  7. yoda
    18z GFS suggests the complex comes through a little later... around 15z TUE... smacks the metro region
  8. yoda
    Guess LWX has more confidence since they updated the language in the most recent HWO for Monday night into Tuesday into the bolded .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Scattered severe storms with damaging winds and large hail are possible late Monday night through Tuesday morning. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible during this time. There is a threat of at least isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail at times Tuesday afternoon through Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed, so spotters should stay tuned to forecast updates through the upcoming week.
  9. yoda
    15% wind in north-western LWX CWA (i81 corridor and to the north and west)... hatched wind is pointing in our direction
  10. yoda
    Anyone else waiting for the new Day 2 OTLK? Lol
  11. yoda
  12. yoda
    12z HRRR at super long range aka end of its run is a direct hit with the MCS... pretty impressive UD Helicity swath as well for that far out
  13. yoda
    12z NAM drops MCS through SE PA and NE MD at 45-51 hours out... but what is that at 45 and 48 hours on its western flank?
  14. yoda
    I've moved on to the MCS threat Monday night into Tuesday morning... and um... the 00z NAM and 06z NAM are very concerning
  15. yoda
    2/5/5 on new DAY 2 OTKLK... but disco is interesting ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Neutral to rising mid-level heights are forecast over much of the Midwest into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic as an upper ridge builds slowly eastward, and as an upper trough lifts northward into New England and Quebec. There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty with where/if robust thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon. A surface front draped from northern IL/IN into OH/PA may serve as a focus for possible convective initiation. Eastern portions of the Midwest into the OH Valley may have a slightly better chance for thunderstorms, as a low-level temperature inversion/cap should be weaker with eastward extent across these regions. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place along/south of the front Sunday afternoon, as rich low-level moisture characterized by mid/upper 60s to low/mid 70s surface dewpoints will be present. A belt of enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow should also be in place on the northern periphery of the upper ridge. Given the degree of deep-layer shear forecast, any thunderstorms that develop could become supercellular and pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Although low-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, it may be sufficient for modest low-level rotation and a brief tornado or two. Have opted to expand the Marginal Risk across the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic since there is still large spread among model guidance with placement and coverage of convection Sunday afternoon/evening. If a more focused corridor of severe potential becomes evident, then greater severe probabilities would be needed given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment.
  16. yoda
    00z HRRR would be entertaining
  17. yoda
    (location is in Western Fauquier County)
  18. yoda
  19. yoda
    FWIW, 18z NAM NEST bringing the UD Helicity Swaths across the region Sunday evening
  20. yoda
    That escalated quickly for Sunday
  21. yoda
    18z NAM trying to advect in a piece of an EML looks like at the end of its run
  22. yoda
    I think we see a SLGT risk introduced on the morning Day 2 tomorrow for most of the region into PHL CWA
  23. yoda
    @weatherwiz
  24. yoda
    12z NAM has me intrigued for Sunday evening looking at the soundings... 1500-2000 SBCAPE and MLCAPE ETA -- in fact, decent tornado potential in them too lol... though the hodos aren't exactly large and curved... but would be enough with low LCL heights, decent SRH at both levels (150+), and decent MLCAPE in the 0-3km layer. Supercell potential is near 80% at DCA at 00z MON with EHI around 3
  25. yoda
    Hmmm
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