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Instability is below 500 J/KG... but those are some impressive looking hodos on the 00z NAM for Friday evening into early Saturday

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022 Nicole's satellite appearance has changed little since this afternoon. Deep convection is not very strong near the center of the cyclone at this time, and there appears to be some dry air intrusions into the circulation as evidenced by water vapor imagery. Nonetheless, wind and central pressure observations from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane aircraft indicate that the system is very close to hurricane strength and the current advisory intensity is set to 60 kt. Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt The track forecast philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory package. Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then northward along the western side of the high. In 3-5 days, Nicole is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United States, to the east of a large mid-level trough. The track model guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official forecast. This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance thereafter. Nicole will be moving over fairly warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius during the next day or so. However, the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical shear will be 25 kt or higher, with low-to mid-tropospheric humidities on the order of 50 percent, during the next 24 hours. Nicole is likely to become a hurricane soon but, given the marginal dynamic and thermodynamic environment, significant strengthening seems unlikely. The official intensity forecast is near or above the available model guidance, and closely follows the decay-SHIPS model after landfall. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida and Georgia and while it accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States. The cyclone should complete extratropical transition by 72 hours and merge with another extratropical low near Atlantic Canada in 120 hours.

Afternoon AFD from LWX mentions severe weather threat LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long term period will begin with remnants of Nicole moving north through our area. Recent guidance is trending quicker than in previous days which would bring rain to the area Friday morning and lasting throughout the day. Heavy rain on Friday could lead to isolated to scattered instances of flooding with PWAT values nearing and greater than 2 inches. The track of remnants of Nicole will determine the amount and location of rainfall. Nevertheless, guidance indicates high probabilities of over an inch of rain and up to 4 inches of rain for the area. While CAPE is limited (less than 150 J/kg), there will be upward to 50 knots of bulk shear over our area Friday afternoon making thunderstorms and severe weather possible.

12z CMC looks like 2 to 3 inches of rain for the majority of the LWX CWA 12z GFS has the heaviest rain a bit further west along the BR... 2 to 4 inches

I made it

Thread been give

None of the 12z models have Nicole reaching hurricane status

Day 10 Euro looks interesting...

5am nhc path has Nicole just to the east of DCA at 1am Saturday

Guess I will be buying some Powerball tickets lol

Fox5 DC winter outlook https://www.fox5dc.com/weather/winter-outlook-2022-2023-snow-blizzard-dmv-dc-maryland-virginia

FOX5 DC winter outlook https://www.fox5dc.com/weather/winter-outlook-2022-2023-snow-blizzard-dmv-dc-maryland-virginia

Hurricane Lisa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 420 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 ...LISA MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE... Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that Lisa has made landfall along the coast of Belize, near the mouth of the Sibun River, about 10 miles southwest of Belize City around 420 PM CDT (2120 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 85 mph (140 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 990 mb (29.24 inches). SUMMARY OF 420 PM CDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 88.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown

Explore lololololol

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has provided critical data with Lisa this morning, showing that the storm has started to intensify. Flight-level winds have increased to 55 kt, with SFMR winds of 50-55 kt, and surface-reduced dropsonde data of about 50 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt as a blend of these data, above the latest satellite classifications. Further intensification is likely with Lisa now having a small radius-of-maximum winds in light vertical wind shear, along with the deep warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean providing ample fuel. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in less than a day when it is near the Bay Islands of Honduras, and Lisa should intensify as it approaches Belize. For now, rapid intensification is not forecast, but since the percentage chances of this occurrence from SHIPS are increasing, this possibility must be mentioned and the new forecast is higher than the bulk of the guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly thereafter. Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. A strong low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next couple of days. This motion is expected to bring the core of the cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The dynamical models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and possible along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon. 2. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon. 4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.3N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.6N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.0N 88.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/0000Z 17.0N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 17.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR STRENGTHENING LISA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 81.8W ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Bay Islands. The government of Guatemala has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire Caribbean coast. The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, and a Tropical Storm Warning from Chetumal to Punta Herrero. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bay Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Puerto Barrios to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire north coast of Honduras * North coast of Guatemala * Chetumal to Punta Herrero

Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022 1100 AM AST Tue Nov 01 2022 The occluded low over the central North Atlantic has developed deep convection over its center, while the frontal boundaries have become displaced a long distance to its east and north. At the same time, FSU Cyclone Phase Space analyses suggest that the system has developed a non-frontal warm core. Given these changes, the system has evolved into a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT scatterometer just observed the system and indicated that the intensity is currently at 45 kt with a large area of 35 kt-plus winds. Thus the system is now a tropical storm and given the name Martin. The system is moving toward the east-northeast around 8 kt, as it is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies in a split in the jet stream with faster westerlies both poleward and equatorward of the system. Martin should turn toward the northeast at an increasingly rapid forward speed during the next two days. The official track forecast is based upon the consensus (TVCN and HCCA) of the tightly clustered global and hurricane dynamical models. In about three days, Martin should decelerate as it merges with a developing extratropical low to its north. For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into a hurricane at high latitudes. The official intensity prediction steadily strengthens the system through 48 hr, which matches a consensus of the statistical, global, and hurricane dynamical models. Around 48 hr, Martin should transition into a powerful extratropical low as a cold front reaches near the center of the system. In about three days, post-tropical Martin should be merging with an developing extratropical system to its north but still be containing hurricane-force winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 35.3N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 35.4N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 36.1N 50.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 38.7N 46.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 43.8N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 04/0000Z 51.5N 34.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1200Z 56.0N 34.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

Tropical Storm Martin Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022 1100 AM AST Tue Nov 01 2022 ...MARTIN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.3N 55.9W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Martin was located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 55.9 West. Martin is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). The tropical storm is anticipated to turn toward the northeast at a faster rate of forward speed during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Martin is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night before transitioning to a powerful extratropical system on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea