yoda

Now we wait to see what comes tonight

48 49 50 601 NWUS51 KLWX 162144 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 544 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0529 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Alexandria 38.82N 77.09W 05/16/2025 City of Alexandria VA 911 Call Center Several trees down with multiple power outages reports in the City of Alexandria. && Event Number LWX2504863

Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 559 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Baltimore City in northern Maryland... Southeastern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 630 PM EDT. * At 559 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Dundalk, or near Sparrows Point, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Dundalk, North Point State Park, Back River, Millers Island, and Essex around 605 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Edgemere and Eastpoint.

48 49 50 222 NWUS51 KLWX 162149 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 549 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0525 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 N Franconia 38.78N 77.15W 05/16/2025 Fairfax VA Public Public report of multiple trees snapped near the intersection of Franconia Road and Beulah Street. && Event Number LWX2504865

Trees snapped and heavy power outages in city of Alexandria

Tornado Warning Baltimore city proper

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 527 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 526 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Westminster, moving east at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR NORTHERN CARROLL AND NORTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTIES. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Westminster, Glencoe, Carrollton, Upperco, Hunt Valley, Hampstead, Sparks, Boring, Bentley Springs, Patapsco, Reese, Parkton, Manchester, Phoenix, Hereford, Millers, Greenmount, Jacksonville, Butler, and Monkton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3962 7657 3960 7656 3959 7655 3948 7655 3951 7705 3967 7705 3971 7657 TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 268DEG 34KT 3960 7696 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 519 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 518 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Boyds, or near Germantown, moving east at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR POOLESVILLE, DAWSONVILLE, AND GAITHERSBURG. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Derwood, Gaithersburg, Washington Grove, Olney, Aspen Hill, North Potomac, Germantown, Boyds, Redland, Rockville, Laytonsville, Brookeville, Norbeck, Dawsonville, Rossmoor, Montgomery Village, Darnestown, Glenmont, Wheaton-Glenmont, and Clarksburg. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3908 7739 3918 7738 3922 7725 3923 7704 3907 7704 TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 266DEG 35KT 3913 7731 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 512 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Carroll County in north central Maryland... Baltimore City in northern Maryland... Northern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Northern Howard County in central Maryland... North central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Harford County in northern Maryland... Eastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Baltimore County in northern Maryland... Northwestern Cecil County in northeastern Maryland... * Until 615 PM EDT. * At 512 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Manchester to near Gamber to Mount Airy, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Law enforcement has reported significant tree damage in Frederick County Maryland. A trained spotter reported golf ball sized hail in Westminster. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Nottingham, Carrollton, Henryton, Owings Mills, Parkville, Hampstead, Riderwood, Gaither, Dundalk, Eastpoint, Halethorpe, Mcdonogh, Sykesville, Street, Upper Falls, Rossville, Monkton, Ellicott City, Benson, and Lisbon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3942 7636 3923 7652 3928 7743 3972 7721 3972 7623 TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 266DEG 29KT 3968 7687 3946 7704 3935 7713 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

-031-VAC059-061-107-153-162115- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-250516T2115Z/ Montgomery MD-Frederick MD-Loudoun VA-Fairfax VA-Fauquier VA- Prince William VA- 446 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...SOUTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...LOUDOUN...NORTHWESTERN FAIRFAX...NORTH CENTRAL FAUQUIER AND NORTHWESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... At 446 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Brunswick to near Purcellville to near Middleburg, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Catharpin, Gleedsville, Waterford, Woolsey, Belmont, Aldie, Poolesville, Philomont, Lincoln, Herndon, Darnestown, The Plains, Saint Louis, Paeonian Springs, Lowes Island, Neersville, Lucketts, Brambleton, Lansdowne, and Great Falls. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3922 7727 3903 7727 3882 7740 3883 7778 3903 7785 3908 7786 3927 7776 TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 261DEG 41KT 3925 7766 3913 7767 3904 7776 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

New watch issued till 11pm

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0820.html Mesoscale Discussion 0820 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...western/central PA to northern VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263... Valid 162014Z - 162215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263 continues. SUMMARY...A mix of damaging winds and severe hail remains possible through early evening from western to central Pennsylvania southward into northern Virginia. A corridor of greater damaging wind potential is apparent in central Maryland, the District of Columbia, and far northern Virginia. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has steadily increased ahead of a minor MCV, and separately along a wavy outflow boundary. Measured strong to severe wind gusts have occurred along the outflow associated with the MCV. Very strong mid-level winds persist in the wake of this MCV, as sampled by recent RLX VWP data. With surface temperatures in the mid to upper 80s ahead of this outflow, yielding peak MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, damaging wind swaths are most probable into central MD to far northern VA. Farther north, convection has largely struggled, outside of a slow-moving supercell along the separate outflow boundary in south-central PA. Mixed severe hail and damaging wind will remain possible here, amid weak low-level shear/SRH. ..Grams.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 41077947 41107851 41097790 40777722 39657638 38947630 38457635 38177670 38587811 39107820 39617826 40137886 40727947 41077947 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Northern part warned for ping pong ball sized hail BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 400 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Point Of Rocks, or 7 miles northwest of Poolesville, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Clarksburg, Damascus, Doubs, Park Mills, Lucketts, Adamstown, Barnesville, Green Valley, Point Of Rocks, Laytonsville, Dickerson, Monrovia, Tuscarora, Taylorstown, Montgomery Village, Buckeystown, and Germantown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3939 7719 3935 7718 3934 7719 3931 7717 3918 7713 3921 7759 3928 7758 TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 267DEG 25KT 3924 7749 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Right turn and rewarned looks like to me

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 332 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front is expected to lift through and to the northeast of the region today into late afternoon. A low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes today with a trailing cold front pushing through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for areas generally about a county north of the Interstate 64 corridor and areas north of that into PA until 10 PM this evening. This is in response to a combination of several key features. THe first of which is a remnant outflow boundary that was laid down this morning by a line of severe thunderstorms that passed to our northeast. This boundary is gradually washing out/drifting slowly towards the southeast into a hot and humid airmass, characterized by temperatures well into the 80s and dew points into the 70s. The result of this air mass is extreme instability values, with MLCAPE in the 2000-2500+ J/kg range. Lapse rates are going to continue to steepen into the afternoon in the low- levels, and they are already pretty high for Mid-Atlantic standards (around 7 C/km) in the mid-levels. The second key feature is a remnant MCV that is moving out of the KY/WV region, with ongoing convection moving into western portions of our forecast area. The expectation is that that ongoing MCS will move off towards the northeast, but outflow from this system will reignite convection as it cross the mountains into eastern WV/western MD. The one factor that does lead to some uncertainty is the presence of some pretty substantial westerly flow aloft. Oftentimes, this can squash a convective threat in this region. Guidance is generally leaning towards some development along the aforementioned boundaries however, so perhaps the remnant MCV is enough to overcome these mid-level westerlies. So, leaning more towards convection being able to develop than not. Once it does get going in our area, as mentioned previously, it is going to have a very favorable environment for explosive development and a substantial damaging wind threat into this evening as it drifts east. Additionally, given some very fat CAPE profiles, large hail would also be a substantial threat if more isolated convection is able to develop. This round of storms should move through pretty quickly into this evening, likely clearing the Chesapeake Bay by around 8-10 PM or so. Then most of the area should dry out, though a few lingering showers/storms may hang around if there are any remnant outflows hanging around. Outside of the severe component of all of this, there could be a non-zero flash flooding threat this afternoon/evening as well. Accompanying these threats will be very heavy rainfall rates at times and could occur over areas that had already taken on a lot of rainfall in the past few days. Additionally, there could end up being some training issues along that initial west-east oriented outflow boundary set down this morning. A Flood Watch wasn`t considered at this time, largely due to the uncertain nature of the convective evolution this afternoon. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall is also highlighted for our area today for the localized potential for some flash flooding. Another round of severe weather could be on the horizon later this evening into the overnight hours. This is still very uncertain though, and very dependent on yet another MCS developing to our west and tracking in such a way that would impact our area. Since we won`t have our daytime heating, the severity could be diminished some, but the humidity, nearby trough, approaching cold front on Saturday could be enough to make it interesting in terms of severe elements overnight. At this time, would feel more confident that this occurs across central/southern VA, but can`t be 100 percent certain at this time. This is very much a "wait and see what develops" scenario and will be much more in the way of NOWcasting later today. &&

1pm temps DCA 84 IAD 87 BWI 85

16z HRRR continues with it's 20z/21z idea

I asked them (LWX) on Twitter aka X... will let you know what they say

15z HRRR For 20z-22z... MD gets clipped, but DC/N VA and south get smacked by the overnight MCS at the end of the run

14z HRRR blows up some supercells (I'm assuming thats what they are) across the region around 20z

Don't usually see the bolded rea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front is expected to lift through and to the northeast of the region today into late afternoon. A low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes today with a trailing cold front pushing through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As expected, a line of moderate to heavy showers has developed across central MD this morning and is moving east towards the Chesapeake Bay. This is along a boundary set off by a much stronger MCS that is ripping across northern PA at this time. It doesn`t appear that the line will have anything severe over our area, but a brief downpour can be expected in these areas. Later this afternoon into this evening, thunderstorms may develop along remnant outflows from this morning convection in conjunction with Bay/River breezes. This would be our first shot at severe thunderstorms today, and would generally be along and east of I-95 roughly. It seems that we will have no issues with heating today, along with very high dew points in the 70s, so this round could be quite strong if it is able to develop. Model guidance and current obs do depict some westerly mid-level flow, which could be an inhibiting factor to CI this afternoon. However, I want to stress that if something does develop in this environment, all hazards will be possible with any storm that develops. Another round of severe weather could be on the horizon later this evening into the overnight hours. This is still very uncertain though, and very dependent on an MCS developing to our west and tracking in such a way that would impact our area. Since we won`t have our daytime heating, the severity could be diminished some, but the humidity, nearby trough, approaching cold front on Saturday could be enough to make it interesting in terms of severe elements overnight. At this time, would feel more confident that this occurs across central/southern VA, but can`t be 100 percent certain at this time. This is very much a "wait and see what develops" scenario and will be much more in the way of NOWcasting later today. Given all of these threats today, the Storm Prediction Center has our region in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms today into tonight. The threats are damaging wind gusts and large hail. Accompanying these threats will be heavy rain and could occur over areas that had already taken on a lot of rainfall in the past few days. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall is also highlighted for our area today for the localized potential for some flash flooding. High temperatures today should push the upper 80s in the eastern half or even close to 90.

Watch up URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Delaware Far Eastern Maryland New Jersey Far Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1005 AM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to strengthen as they move into more of eastern PA and eastern MD. Destabilization is expected downstream, with the resulting combination of instability and shear supportive of supercells capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of Trenton NJ to 45 miles south of Dover DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

Mesoscale Discussion 0808 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0846 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...the Lower Mid-Atlantic States Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 161346Z - 161545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A few supercells could develop before midday across parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region. Large hail and damaging winds should be the primary hazards into early afternoon. DISCUSSION...An arcing band of convective development is underway south of a morning MCS across over central/eastern PA. This arc extends southward through central MD towards the DC metro vicinity. 12Z WAL to PIT soundings sampled a favorable environment for supercells with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear, largely driven by speed change with height amid unidirectional west-northwesterlies. This was coupled with moderate mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7 C/km. 12Z HRRR and 00Z HREF guidance have a signal for longer-track 2-5 km UH, with potential for a few supercells. Given the orientation of the convective development, this seems probable across parts of eastern MD, DE, and far southern NJ. Pronounced surface heating in this area, south of persistent cloudiness farther north, will aid in further destabilization and increase the risk for both large hail and damaging winds by midday. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40727641 40517541 39887448 39177448 38267486 38037544 38087591 38427700 38917704 39777645 40277652 40727641 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming shortly for NE MD and DE/Eastern Shore https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0808.html

Radarscope says max hail 3.5" Seeing a few 80 dBz pixels