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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Morning AFD from LWX suggests Sunday and Monday now SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday likely starts out dry as high pressure continue to move off to the east. The focus then turns to the Ohio Valley where multiple disturbances are embedded in the mid-level flow. 00Z guidance has trended upwards in terms of convective coverage Sunday afternoon/evening with the higher focus generally along/west of US-15. This correlates to where SPC has a MRGL (1 out of 5) risk for SVR wx. While the storms should be progressive Sunday during the day, uncertainty arises heading into Sunday evening/night as the warm front is progged to be between the Mason Dixon and Potomac River. Guidance continues to enhance precipitation in this area into PA as the LLJ advects anomalous moisture to the boundary. WPC has a MRGL ERO for most of the CWA, though think the greatest risk is in the aforementioned area. There is a conditional tornado risk Sunday afternoon/evening wherever the warm front does set up. Monday could be an impactful weather day across the region given the anomalous trough moving to the NW and sfc low moving over the Great Lakes into Canada. Most SVR parameters are favorable in our area with a residual lee pressure trough forecast just east of the Blue Ridge to aid the synoptic scale forcing. Hodographs are concerning from model guidance. However, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding morning cldcvr, upstream convective debris, track of the low, etc. Machine learning continues to show modest probs for SVR wx as well. We will continue to message Monday as low confidence for a potentially higher impact SVR wx event. The greater chances for SVR wx look to be over the northern portions of the area where there is a better overlap in kinematics and dynamics. PWs are anomalous (between 1.75-2" for most), so while the storms may be progressive, cannot rule out some hydro problems near the metros. Will continue to monitor, so be sure to check back.
  2. yoda
    Oh....SPC talking dirty in their Day 3 disco this morning SPC AC 050740 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday across portions of the southern Appalachians, mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. ...Mid-Atlantic/northeast... As an upper-level trough moves slowly east across the region Monday, latest deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests a favorably sheared environment for organized severe storms including supercells will exist over a rather large area from the southern Appalachians northeast into the mid-Atlantic/northeast U.S. Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer, combined with somewhat steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the eastern fringe of an EML extending east from the southern Plains, will contribute to moderate-strong MLCAPE across the area. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12z Monday over portions of PA/NY and vicinity with a weak mid-level impulse and warm advection, and lingering clouds/precipitation will likely influence the degree of destabilization in these areas. Thunderstorms should develop/intensify during the afternoon in advance of a cold front aided by large-scale ascent, with both supercell and multicell storm structures likely. Relatively long hodographs may support splitting storms with a risk for large hail, and seasonably strong low-level wind fields will favor scattered damaging gusts, especially where low-level lapse rates are steepened through stronger heating. A risk for a few tornadoes may also exist, especially across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast where low-level hodograph curvature is most pronounced. Have opted to continue a broad 15%/Slight Risk area with this outlook, however higher severe probabilities may ultimately be warranted for portions of the area as mesoscale details come into better focus.
  3. yoda
    Maybe some sneaky severe Sunday? MRGL for i95 and west on new SPC Day 2... 5% wind... but 2% TOR in NW VA into C and W MD
  4. yoda
    Afternoon/evening disco for Monday was well-written on the threats and possible uncertainties .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday continues to be shaping up to be a potential impactful weather day with increasing confidence for severe thunderstorms in our forecast area. A strong mid-level trough will eject from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley by Monday. The trough is expected to strengthen and become neutral to negatively tilted during the day on Monday. In response, surface low pressure will develop over Southern Michigan and track into Southern Ontario during the day. Models differ on the idea of a prefrontal shortwave ahead of the trough, which may lead to early convection on Monday out ahead of the main trough. This has led to uncertainty regarding the amount of destabilization. Out ahead of the system, the air mass is expected to become very moist as a result of strengthening southerly winds. Most of the guidance shows precipitable water values near or exceeding 2” east of the Blue Ridge with values over 1.75 west of the Blue Ridge. This increasing moisture advection may lead to low-level clouds and precipitation which may also hinder destabilization during the day, resulting in further uncertainty. Despite the uncertainty, with the trough becoming negatively tilted, mid-level flow is expected to increase across the area with most guidance showing bulk shear values from 30-40 knots. East of the Blue Ridge, there is a stronger signal for increased low-level flow, with soundings showing 0-3 km shear on the order of 20-30 knots which bears watching for potential low-level rotation within some storms. Given the strong forcing and the 30-40 Knots of bulk shear, any sunshine in the afternoon may provide ample instability on the order of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE to fuel severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and even a few isolated tornadoes possible. We will continue to monitor this system as it approaches and uncertainty decreases.
  5. yoda
    While true, I don't think I've seen LWX in their AFD mention tornado threat 4 days out The potential for severe weather is still there, though. Model soundings indicate around 30-40 knots of deep-layer shear will be present over the area. East of the Blue Ridge, 925mb winds around 35KT or greater are resulting in elongated, curved hodographs in the low-levels. If the atmosphere can destabilize, the 1500-2000+ J/kg of SBCAPE is certainly enough to fuel scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threats look to be damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes.
  6. yoda
    Afternoon discussion from LWX already talking it up some for Monday On Monday, the aforementioned cold front will approach and move through our area bringing unsettled weather. Confidence continues to increase for severe weather ahead of the frontal passage Monday evening. The most recent guidance continues to indicate bulk shear values between 30-40 knots with CAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg. Southerly flow ahead of the frontal passage will usher in ample moisture with PWAT values nearing and even exceeding 2 inches along I-95. While the signal for severe weather has persisted for a few days now, uncertainty remains regarding timing due to the system being 5 days away. At this time, damaging winds will likely be the primary threat for Monday. However, large hail and a tornado are possible as well. Isolated instances of flooding are also possible with the moist airmass.We will continue to monitor this system as it approaches.
  7. yoda
    Looking like Monday is our next chance at severe
  8. yoda
    I see DMH is 99 and BWI is 96... so I guess they got the two mixed up
  9. yoda
    CWG tweeted it
  10. yoda
    DCA 97 IAD 98 BWI 99
  11. yoda
    Sigh Broadcast media reports "numerous trees and branches blew down around Dupont Circle, including several on to people"
  12. yoda
    Velocities are 70 to 80mph for a pretty good portion of this line from VA into MD
  13. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 519 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 DCC001-MDC033-VAC059-510-292130- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-230729T2130Z/ District of Columbia DC-Prince Georges MD-Fairfax VA- City of Alexandria VA- 519 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...WEST CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGES...AND EAST CENTRAL FAIRFAX COUNTIES AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF ALEXANDRIA... At 518 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Friendly, or over National Harbor, moving southeast at 20 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR ALEXANDRIA AND WESTERN PRINCE GEORGE`S COUNTY. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. Locations impacted include... Alexandria, Clinton, Fort Washington, Fort Hunt, Groveton, Huntington, National Harbor, Andrews Air Force Base, Camp Springs, Oxon Hill, Hybla Valley, Rosaryville, Friendly, Temple Hills, Marlow Heights, Accokeek, Forest Heights, Tantallon and Jefferson Manor. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3879 7711 3884 7704 3880 7682 3868 7698 TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 302DEG 17KT 3877 7697 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
  14. yoda
    Comes from GW Campus mesonet near Georgetown
  15. yoda
    3rd or 4th destructive tag warning issued by LWX BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 509 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The south central District of Columbia... West central Prince Georges County in central Maryland... East central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The southeastern City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 509 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over National Harbor, moving southeast at 20 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR CITY OF ALEXANDRIA AND WESTERN PRINCE GEORGE`S COUNTY. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Alexandria, Clinton, Fort Washington, Fort Hunt, Groveton, Huntington, National Harbor, Andrews Air Force Base, Camp Springs, Oxon Hill, Hybla Valley, Rosaryville, Friendly, Temple Hills, Marlow Heights, Accokeek, Forest Heights, Tantallon and Jefferson Manor. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3879 7711 3884 7704 3880 7682 3868 7698 TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 302DEG 17KT 3879 7702 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
  16. yoda
    Big CG strike right outside my window, damn
  17. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 506 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 DCC001-MDC033-VAC013-292115- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0216.000000T0000Z-230729T2115Z/ District of Columbia DC-Prince Georges MD-Arlington VA- 506 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGES AND EAST CENTRAL ARLINGTON COUNTIES... At 505 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Walker Mill, or over Fedex Field, moving east at 30 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR WASHINGTON DC AND WESTERN PRINCE GEORGE`S. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. Locations impacted include... Arlington, Clinton, Forestville, Largo, Coral Hills, Bladensburg, Nationals Park, Fedex Field, Howard University, Gallaudet University, Fort Totten, Reagan National Airport, Crystal City, RFK Stadium, Andrews Air Force Base, Landover, Camp Springs, Kettering, Walker Mill and Mitchellville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3886 7707 3895 7703 3893 7676 3877 7683 TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 282DEG 25KT 3888 7688 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
  18. yoda
    Wonder how @Ian fared
  19. yoda
    Alexandria has 70-80mph velocities
  20. yoda
    Velocities approaching 80mph SE of Crofton, MD
  21. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Warning DCC001-MDC033-VAC013-292115- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0216.230729T2055Z-230729T2115Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 455 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The District of Columbia... Central Prince Georges County in central Maryland... East central Arlington County in northern Virginia... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 455 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over RFK Stadium, moving east at 30 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR WASHINGTON DC. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Arlington, Clinton, Forestville, Largo, Coral Hills, Bladensburg, Nationals Park, Fedex Field, Howard University, Gallaudet University, Fort Totten, Reagan National Airport, Crystal City, RFK Stadium, Andrews Air Force Base, Landover, Camp Springs, Kettering, Walker Mill and Mitchellville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3886 7707 3895 7703 3893 7676 3877 7683 TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 282DEG 25KT 3890 7698 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
  22. yoda
    Destructive storm tag for DC
  23. yoda
    Approaching 80mph
  24. yoda
    Destructive tag still going for AA County storm Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 447 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 MDC003-292100- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0214.000000T0000Z-230729T2100Z/ Anne Arundel MD- 447 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY... At 447 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Severn, moving east at 30 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. Locations impacted include... Severn, Glen Burnie, Severna Park, Odenton, Pasadena, Arnold, Lake Shore, Fort Meade, Millersville, South Gate, Gambrills, Herald Harbor, Crownsville, Chelsea Beach, Sherwood Forest and Belvedere Heights. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3906 7678 3915 7675 3912 7652 3911 7648 3902 7650 TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 280DEG 27KT 3910 7667 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
  25. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 441 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 DCC001-MDC003-027-031-033-VAC013-059-610-292145- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0212.000000T0000Z-230729T2145Z/ District of Columbia DC-Anne Arundel MD-Howard MD-Montgomery MD- Prince Georges MD-Arlington VA-City of Falls Church VA-Fairfax VA- 441 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...ANNE ARUNDEL...SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD... SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN PRINCE GEORGES...ARLINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF FALLS CHURCH... At 441 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Baltimore-Washington Airport to near Goddard to Pimmit Hills, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Arlington, Columbia, Bethesda, Reston, Bowie, Severn, Annapolis, College Park, Crofton, Greenbelt, Langley Park, Beltsville, Vienna, Elkridge, Riviera Beach, Forestville, Falls Church, Largo, Coral Hills and Bladensburg. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3896 7645 3875 7651 3890 7741 3896 7736 3896 7724 3911 7700 3922 7680 3919 7651 3918 7649 3916 7647 3913 7641 3906 7642 3901 7637 TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 268DEG 29KT 3916 7666 3902 7684 3892 7719 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
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