mreaves

Big Country, one of my favorites

Ugh, I actually popped up to 39°. I need a little

Me looking for the snow to start

She says bitterly…

Guard at the federal prison in Berlin pays more I bet.

I don’t like these warm runs. Yes, I’m still on the cold side but it feels like the margin is getting thinner.

Updated for the BTV forecast area

They have a chart for that. They actually have quite a few different graphics for winter weather https://www.weather.gov/btv/winter Location Snow Amount Potential Chance of Seeing More Snow Than Low End Snowfall Expected Snowfall High End Snowfall >=0.1" >=1" >=2" >=4" >=6" >=8" >=12" >=18" Plattsburgh, NY 6 9 13 100% 100% 99% 96% 85% 65% 22% 1% Ticonderoga, NY 8 12 14 100% 100% 100% 98% 94% 82% 32% 0% Malone, NY 6 9 13 100% 100% 100% 97% 87% 67% 22% 1% Massena, NY 4 7 12 99% 98% 97% 88% 70% 46% 11% 0% Potsdam, NY 5 9 13 100% 100% 99% 94% 83% 62% 17% 0% Middlebury, VT 9 13 15 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 87% 48% 0% St. Johnsbury, VT 7 12 15 100% 100% 99% 97% 91% 80% 41% 2% Burlington, VT 7 10 14 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 77% 28% 0% Island Pond, VT 8 12 16 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 89% 51% 5% St. Albans, VT 7 9 13 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 72% 22% 0% Stowe, VT 9 14 16 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 92% 58% 2% Randolph, VT 7 13 14 100% 99% 99% 96% 90% 79% 37% 0% Newport, VT 7 10 16 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 83% 43% 5% Rutland, VT 7 12 13 99% 99% 98% 95% 86% 71% 20% 0% Barre, VT 8 12 15 100% 100% 100% 98% 94% 83% 39% 1% Springfield, VT 3 7 9 97% 95% 91% 77% 54% 27% 1% 0%

Was just going to post this. Nice!

Disappointed that BTV only gives me a 2% chance at 18"

35°/27° here with bright blue skies. Just took the sleds off the trailer to let the ice melt off the track and suspension. Would like to see some melt off the floor of the trailer too but that might be asking a bit too much

Not quite .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 458 AM EST Wednesday... WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... Bottom line up front: 8-12" of snow is expected over a prolonged period, with the bulk of the event occurring Thursday evening and overnight into Friday morning. No major changes seen in the 00Z NWP guidance with the NAM and ECMWF in line with the cooler GFS solutions highlighted for several days.

Warnings are up for most of VT Forecast totals haven't changed that much

Probably a C-. Might have gone C if we hadn’t had that mild stretch in the middle of December. The cold has helped because it retained somewhat low snowfall. Still time to get better.

Still 26° here. I though the new normal was to drop below 0 as soon as the sun set. This is like an evening in Key West.

And as we’ve seen in this thread, many of us have issues with impulse control.

28.5° here and it was nice.

Ice, ice baby?

He’s getting excited for the wife getting home.

I’ll vouch for that. You’ve been pretty steadfast in saying this had the look of going under NNE.

Are models like the ICON and Arpege actually decent for their intended locations?

BTV is getting more enthused. The map from this morning had my area at 6.8"

This is the 12K NAM

You know the drill, comments are on what the output shows verbatim, not what mitigating factors may impact each run. That's one possible outcome but obviously there are other factors that will be considered in actual forecasts