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OSUmetstud

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  1. OSUmetstud
    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0132.1 Interesting findings I thought. This was also posted in the mid Atlantic winter thread.
  2. OSUmetstud
  3. OSUmetstud
    I didn't say that anywhere.
  4. OSUmetstud
    Basically.
  5. OSUmetstud
    Buffalo's 7 ft in mid November 2014 says hello. But el Nino as a whole is not great for western ny, unless it's weak, then there's been some good ones.
  6. OSUmetstud
    This isn't exactly true. Sometimes in El Nino years the PAC flow can invade AK and Canada so that theres warmth across much of the northern tier. November and December wave lengths are shorter than Jan Feb and March. This is my analog set for December, for example: Considerable improvement in Jan through March as the north PAC low sinks south towards Hawaii.
  7. OSUmetstud
    Yeah its a bit counterintuitive in some respects. Its just that the "stakes" are higher in the winter and the sensible impacts to a poor forecast tend to be larger.
  8. OSUmetstud
    Yes. For a single month. Overall ecmwf does just a bit better.
  9. OSUmetstud
    Yep. Its anomaly correlation so no percentage. It goes down in the summer and up in the winter. Predictability is worse in the summer because of weaker systems and shorter wave lengths. I can't seem to find the year to year improvement plot.
  10. OSUmetstud
    Yep. Enjoy. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/
  11. OSUmetstud
    Decent performance the past month...not too far under ecmwf/ukmet.
  12. OSUmetstud
    Its skill scores are slightly higher than the existing gfs. It also doesn't over-intensify hurricanes, which of course the current one does.
  13. OSUmetstud
    That paper isn't going to assess snow probabilities the best I think because it's focus is very intense lows. We know that we don't need overly intense lows to get a heavy snowstorm.
  14. OSUmetstud
    This is a cool paper. But I didn't see it make any sort of inference or correlation between fall nor'easters leading to winter ones. They just seem to be establishing a nor'easter climatology and then assessing risk via track and density based on different NAO and ENSO states.
  15. OSUmetstud
    That is true. Last year was the worst
  16. OSUmetstud
    Yeah I was talking about the euro seasonal.
  17. OSUmetstud
    Thanks. The October run last year actually did great for Dec, Jan, and Feb here. March failed because of the Feb strat warm event that caused a completely unpredicted pattern reversal.
  18. OSUmetstud
    Qgis is free. We use it at the office. I'm not a GIS guy so there's a bit of a learning curve but you can make some really professional looking maps with it.
  19. OSUmetstud
    How did u get those plots from last fall? They aren't in the dropdown menu.
  20. OSUmetstud
    New jma is out. Looks really nice overall. Probably not quite as cool as the ukmet and ecmwf given the lack of ridging in ak and the pna region seen on the European guidance. December has the Aleutian low into the Bering which isn't as ideal as some other guidance. Looks better in Jan though.
  21. OSUmetstud
    One of our guys out on the waq south of ns had a nice stinger last night from post-michael. 73g86kt at 60m. They were in that warm IR area south of the edge of the comma head.
  22. OSUmetstud
    I'd call that probably a weak -nao overall in the means. Looks stronger but east based in December. You don't get low pressures and low heights over NL in a strong -NAO. The Aleutian low appears to stay west enough to not flood north america with PAC air.
  23. OSUmetstud
    Its a free site. You can click around to get the area you want. This is Europe and Africa which does give you a good section of NAO domain.
  24. OSUmetstud
    New ecmwf seasonal is out on weather.us looks pretty sexy for all id say. Above normal precipitation for the I 95 corridor aside Jan.
  25. OSUmetstud
    Yeah ukmet was definitely pretty nice
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