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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. OSUmetstud
    It's a weak trough off the west coast in a split flow. It's barely registering as a -pna since the main PNA region in nwt/Yukon. Theres nothing in the 300dm range either.
  2. OSUmetstud
    Yes. Lots of shuffling around in the 5 to 8 day. Low predictability.
  3. OSUmetstud
    Can you point out this severe negative PNA that you're talking about?
  4. OSUmetstud
    Ahh, nice.
  5. OSUmetstud
    I thought weeklies looked okay, but the signal overall was pretty weak outside of the normal two week ensemble period. Lots of whites on the maps, not much oranges or blues. Nothing really to be discouraged about or super excited about.
  6. OSUmetstud
    How much of an increase in yearly snowfall at the new location? A few inches I'm thinking?
  7. OSUmetstud
    Scandinavian Block and death storm near my head are doing good work.
  8. OSUmetstud
    Yeah it updated early this month just noticed. Usually it updates on the 11th.
  9. OSUmetstud
    It's already updated on weather.us https://weather.us/monthly-charts/euro/2018110100/north-america/anomaly-msl/20190301-0000z.html
  10. OSUmetstud
    I have a wxbell subscription. I never have seen the euro seasonal on there, only the weeklies.
  11. OSUmetstud
    Cool thanks.
  12. OSUmetstud
    Where did you find that?
  13. OSUmetstud
    Ben Noll made some euro posts on October 5th last month. Weather.us has the monthly data on the 11th. Ukmet is also on the 11th. Nmme comes out on the 8th.
  14. OSUmetstud
    Thanks!
  15. OSUmetstud
    This is another paper about NAO prediction. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-00353-y Most important factors they found were fall Barents/Kara Sea Ice, fall wave 1 stratospheric disturbances and fall north Atlantic SST configuration.
  16. OSUmetstud
    Thanks
  17. OSUmetstud
    Where do we find more than the past 10 years? Its Canadian snow cover that been impressive this year, not Eurasia.
  18. OSUmetstud
    Where do I find this graph? Thanks.
  19. OSUmetstud
    I'm not sure a negative PDO here means as much as it normally would. It's a bit of a "fake" -pdo in the sense that there's really warm water in the Gulf of AK all the way south into the PAC NW. That SST arrangement along with a CP El Nino should be associated with a +PNA pattern predominantly through winter. Usually it would be cold there in a more typical -PDO. The value of the index is lowered significantly because of the warm water off japan.
  20. OSUmetstud
    Sure, I'm just saying there's nothing in the data set that's been this low in JAS that jumped into moderate from here. Anything can happen and I'm certainly not a Nino expert.
  21. OSUmetstud
    El Nino exists as a relative difference to the Global and PAC SST, why shouldn't we adjust for warming oceans?
  22. OSUmetstud
    The JAS ONI was 0.1. I can't seem to find a single event that started so late which peaked in moderate. Every single one had a JAS of 0.5 or higher.
  23. OSUmetstud
    Feb looks a ton better than the previous run but as a whole it the anomalies are similar. I think the general look is a bit weird after December. The PAC slp and 500mb anomalies dont look particularly nino like even though the SST and convection is there.
  24. OSUmetstud
    Right it's not as central/west as 09/10 but it's definitely more centered in 3.4/4 as opposed to 3/1.2. It's technically not a modoki because Nino 1.2 isn't below normal I think?
  25. OSUmetstud
    I noted that the CP Nino events had more AK/Western Canada ridging as the north PAC low is further west. This would help out the northeast for storm threats, I believe. The "fake" -NAO in EP Nino with Canada baking from PAC flow doesn't really help things.
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