OSUmetstud
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud
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Yeah. And thats why the study specifically works with phases above 1 stdev on the wheeler-hendon diagram. In lower amplitudes the signal just washes out relative to the other forcing.
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https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1 Not exactly what scott was talking about but related.
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I read the klotzbach et al. paper on the mjo and se sne snowfall yesterday. Approaching 15 percent increase in phases 7 and 8 and 15 percent decrease in phases 4 and 5. It definitely helps but its just one piece of the puzzle. More relevant for medium and long range favorable vs. unfavorable stuff.
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January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE
OSUmetstud replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Oh cool. Thanks. I hadnt seen anything that nice with the reps online. -
January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE
OSUmetstud replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Hi, where do you get these plots? Thanks. -
Eps is workable at the end of the run but not great or epic id say. Probably best for ma/se relative to climo.
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You already have the 12z gefs out to mid month?
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Ben posts a just a spray of medium range and seasonal guidance constantly but doesnt comment much on skill or what he thinks will actually happen. But yeah, the jma look wasnt great.
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Hell back be back to being excited about 9 day gfs solutions tomorrow.
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It got more amplified on guidance the past 12 hours. Looks like mostly a rainer here. It never turns into a proper 50/50 to keep the baroclinic zone south for the 8th for SNE.
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Oh. Its on hm's twitter feed. Weve seen hadley cell expansion the past few year (subtropical highs and subsidence expanding northward and southward into the mid latitudes from tropical convection). It likely contributed to stj having a +5F anomaly last winter even with a stout +NAO. Ive seen some evidence is agw related but i dont know a ton about it.
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Those huge hadley cells continue to be an issue of late.
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2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE
OSUmetstud replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Blizzard verified on the front end and the back end of this storm. Over 14 inches at yyt and still going. Deep winter.
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I hoist internally. I don't work for EC, our company has a lot of contracts with provincial and municiple DOTs, oil companies, etc. Wreckhouse is a specific region in Newfoundland where they have really intense downslope winds (like Foehn or Chinooks). They can reach over 100 knots in certain situations because of the favorable topography there. Les Suetes are the name of the same phenomenon that occurs in Inverness, Nova Scotia downwind of the Cape Breton Highlands.
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If that's what you're into, sure lol. Or are you asking me what that means?
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I wonder why the -AO turns positive post-day 10. Im not sure that makes a ton of sense.
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Tough start to the New Year, usually those are 3 am posts.
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CPC's JFM outlook isn't warm. It looks okay, I think.
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I try to appreciate that not everyone is getting the goods. It's been good here.
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Plus, there's a blizzard tonight into tomorrow... lol
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I have a 2 bedroom apt... Plus, I live in Newfoundland not Nova Scotia. That storm has been trying to trend colder, but its going to be tough, I think. Maybe a trip to Cartwright, Labrador is in order. One of the good things about so much model uncertainty is that you never know what might pop on the next run.
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The technical SSW seems to be today, i think. The 60N/10W reversal occurs at 12z today on the run from 12z Euro run from yesterday.
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Both the EPS and GEFS had the strat warming event. The question now is downwelling into the troposphere, that isn't well agreed upon.
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Yes, he also didnt mention anything about snow in that post, I thought it more demonstrative than anything.
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I think HM said there would be a delay, sounded like he was thinking 15-20th for the past few days, anyway.
