OSUmetstud

Crazy. Is this the most expensive one in history?

200700 excess deaths per NYT/CDC through July 25th https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

They apparently didn't admit many of the 70-80+ year old patients into ICU care...just gave them pain meds and let them die. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-is-taking-a-high-toll-on-swedens-elderly-families-blame-the-government-11592479430

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2769034 This study, the SK study, and the GA summer camp outbreak aren't particularly favorable for the hope that kids don't transmit well. I think you have to assume that kids transmit just as well as adults as the default when planning for reopening.

NYS school metrics are based on community transmission. I really wish we ge to the point where we regularly test students but that's the best alternative. You just can't open normally if you're having lots of community transmission.

I'm pretty sure the current rapid tests (like the Abbott idnow) are the similar ones Michael Mina is talking about in that twitter thread. We dont need the sensitivity of the pcr test for community survaillance and beating down R. The pcr test only outperforms the rapid tests when there's a very little viral RNA.

How do we know ANYTHING???

The scientists aren't making up the the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test.

False negatives are way more common than false positives. False positives are extremely rare and are most likely the result of contamination. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/covid-19-false-positives-1.5555322

Not sure this is true stebo. Theres a strong push to get more frequent antigen testing off the ground with cheaper paper strip type testing. We are testing a great deal of the people far too late in the disease course for any benefit for contract tracing. On average, the people who are testing positve are no longer infectious so its only serving as a diagnosis, nothing more.

Asymptomatic vs. symptomatic is subjective. The tolerance for symptoms in people is heterogeneous. It seems though that you can still see changes in the lungs for a lot of these people who aren't felling symptoms.

It was like 1100. It was the results of the stage 1/2 oxford/azn vaccine. The moderna one last week was stage 1 results and that was 45 people. I'm more hopeful than ever will have a viable vaccine in early 2021.

Scientist have been talking about needing more funding for emerging disease surveillance for years. The next pandemic was always only a matter of time.

I'm almost sure that an accident or elective surgery admission does not count as a covid hospitalization.

Excess deaths are running about 31k over confirmed/probable covid deaths as of June 6th on the CDC data. The aggregate data clearly shows we undercounted covid deaths, especially early on. The deaths with covid narrative is complete nonsense and is meant to reduce the gravity of the pandemic. The confirmed/probable counts are quite close to excess counts later on as the testing expanded and we caught nearly all the severe cases.

I'm a little bothered by that indiana serology survey that you posted a week or two ago. The results of the study showed 1.1 % with antibodies and another 1.7 % with active infections as of 4/29. It appears they divided the dead at of the end of the study, 1099, by 2.8 percent of the indiana population. I think that's flawed methodology. It takes like two weeks on average to die from symptom onset...if they wanted to included active infections than they ought to have lagged the ifr calculation and included deaths that occurred at least week or two after 4/29.

Yeah me too, hard for me to get excited about hockey lately.

Hockey is inside too. Probably more risky than a football stadium.

Idk man. Get some home weights lol. Gyms seem like a ripe place for big virus spread. Its why their last in NYS, more risk.

Seems a bit fudged but Im sure you guys well take it lol.

yep, cell phone data.

The decision at the time was not based on scientific guidelines, but people's behaviors are still driving lower transmission rates. I hope that all these places, both open and closed have been using their time wisely to gear up and increase testing and tracing capacity for the next wave of infections.

It attracts a million people/year. It's not happening.

I dont think it would be safe to assume that..there isn't elevated mortality in the USA until early March.

That's different. Im just saying the feds would normally help for something like this...