OSUmetstud
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud
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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..
OSUmetstud replied to wolfie09's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Nice post man. It's really disappointing that people on what should be a science forum stop caring about science and think some large conspiracy is afoot. -
Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..
OSUmetstud replied to wolfie09's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Kinda incredible that people believe this is happening en masse or systematically when there's been 250K excess deaths since Feb and there's been 275K influenza, pneumonia, and COVID deaths over the same time frame. -
Lol. Same time...
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How many crap storms did we miss in 1933? I know Landsea says something like 1 to 2 per year pre satellite Era but some of those big years back then it must have been even more.
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The rockies one in June? Idk man.
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Cedar Rapids is going to be the new Sandy.
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Omar comin'
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That's fair. I'm sure there's some natural variation in viral load from person to person just because of biological variations. The super spreading seems mostly venue dependent (large, indoor gatherings with poor air circulation), but there could be some people who just have a bit more virus in the upper respiratory tract than others.
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Where? You made that up. Asymptomatic people and presymptomatic people have high viral loads, too. The difference in disease seems like its mostly related to a poor immune response. I agree with lowering the threshold for community surveillance. The high sensitivity stuff is best used for the hospital when a patient has obvious symptoms. We need to optimize testing to find people who are actually transmitting, not to catch people who are late in their disease course.
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Yes, that's from the long tail of viral RNA that persists in people a few weeks after they have contagious virus. Were testing people outside of this window mostly. The article never suggests that these people never were contagious. By the time people have significant enough symptoms to think to get tested, weve missed most if not all of the window. People infected with the virus are most infectious from a day or two before symptoms appear till about five days after. But at the current testing rates, “you’re not going to be doing it frequently enough to have any chance of really capturing somebody in that window,” Dr. Mina added.
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Dude. Theyre positive. Its just that theyre late in their illness. We missed when they were actually infectious. Thats the point that michael mina is making. Not that they don't or didn't just have covid.
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People are being tested way too late. What good is it to find someone with mild symptoms who was actually contagious 7 or 10 days ago? How can you contact trace that far back?
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Its not a narrative thing. The FDA initially approved the highly sensitive RT-PCR tests that are excellent for clinic diagnosis. Thats their typical purview. They are not tailored to only find contagious patients in a community setting. Dr. Michael Mina is big on pushing for a different category of testing...one for the community survaillance. Those tests would be much cheaper, could be taken at home and often. Theyre not as sensitive but the people that need to be found to slow community transmission have very high levels of viral RNA which would be found by these new tests.
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Yes of course. The disease kills different demographics. There was a study that compared the two in NYC, the pandemic wave there was about 70% as deadly as the spanish flu.
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I think the southern wave peaked last month. Excess death data seems to suggest that. Rt numbers are generally below 1 there. The case numbers aren't the only thing to look at...hospitalizations have been falling and deaths started falling a few weeks ago. Can that be maintained with school starting? Maybe not.
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The prevailing theory for the mortality of Spanish flu is a high prevalence of secondary bacterial infections which would have been more treatable today. The spanish flu still hit in 3 or 4 waves over a few years.
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Thats actually not what the cdc site says. It says that covid is the only cause mentioned in 6 percent of cases. Pneumonia or ARDS being mentioned along with covid would fall into that 94 percent.
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Things are objectively getting better in the south currently though.
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Infected per capita is currently higher in the south than the north thats just not debatable.
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Their gdp fall and unemployment numbers are better than the us.
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Well then just **** it then. Im not sure why I bother.
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Okay. Why is that relevant?
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It seems that the countries are doing reasonably well economically are the ones that have covid more under control. Germany is doing relatively well economically for example.
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I could do live shots like his current one from here half the year.
