OSUmetstud

Ah ncep just reversed the bias. So cold and snow for all on the new GFS

Thats interesting. The surface warm bias is categorically a thing at all lead times.

Here we seem to have this thing where it's too warm at the surface but it's too cold at 925/850...not sure if that's true in NE. For example, the 00z GFS last night had several inches of snow for the Avalon Peninsula basically at zero hour which never occurred.

In all seriousness...I've subjectively noticed that the fv3 gfs doesn't seem to have that severe phasing/suppression/se bias that the op GFS has in the short to medium range.

I think things are a bit better for the 7th to 9th than the 5th for SNE.

I already like this version better.

Stop being a bitch

Wave spacing issue is real but there's potential. Not too much more to say than that.

Well there's a complex inlet between Cape Breton County and Victoria County in that area he's discussing that gets gap wind contributions from the NE (and SW) since there's higher elevations on either side of the Seal Island Bridge area.

Yeah. This is from our climate consultant at the office. My parents live on the Bras d’Or Lakes about a mile from the Seal Island Bridge (where Wood has an RWIS station). They sent me the attached pictures this morning of the storm surge and related flooding and damage they are currently experiencing. The winds are northeasterly, meaning they are funneling down through from the open ocean, resulting in a direct hit on their property. The water is about 3-4 feet above the high-water mark – the highest we have ever seen it since our family bought the property in the 1960’s. It has washed out cribbing along the shore that my dad and I installed when I was 12yo (not yesterday but it’s held up pretty well until now). We have been reinforcing the shoreline with large granite boulders over the past few years, which seem to be holding up, but a lot of the shoreline is still exposed and inundated about 15-20 feet inland (more in some places). And the winds are expected to continue at least throughout the day.

This was run of the mill for here in eastern NL Didn't even gust to 55 KT at yyt. Cape Breton Highlands is getting the best of this one.

I'm getting hurt by 36F SSTs lol. (System already has marginal temperatures.)

It's a mountain wave type thing. The LLJ get slammed to the ground in the Codroy Valley to the lee of the table top mountains to the east which are kind of a plateau. This is actually not a perfect situation for these winds Wednesday into Thursday. It's more effective when the atmosphere is very stratified north of a mid-winter warm front. I've seen almost 200 km/h since I've lived here. A lesser type of wind occurs downwind of the Chautauqua Ridge in areas like Dunkirk south of BUF. I'm sure there are areas in the Greens and Whites that can see similar.

Thanks

Is the euro broken? Its not coming in at wxbell

Live free or die, except when it comes to smoking a plant

That's kinda silly lol.

Is that guy a met? We can't even get greater than a 1.0c on the weekly data and he makes a statement about moderate to strong Nino currently. I get the pushback against epic blizzard tracks all the time but no need to overreact to the weenies and make yourself look like a fool. Much of the bullshit pattern in the coming few weeks is probably the result of intraseasonal mjo forcing, not the Nino itself.

The gefs has it like day 13 to 15 just like the eps.

Westerly wind burst. (ENSO tropical forcing stuff)

Aerosols from travel? That's interesting though. I remember you guys discussing the Grinch anomalies before.

Does anyone have any skill numbers for the weeklies?

I was confused about Ben's post. Is there a mid month update or is it the same stuff from the early November forecast?

He should have eaten his in October lol

Dude the 00z euro is friged for you for Thanksgiving.