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OSUmetstud

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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. OSUmetstud
    As do I. But seasonal forecasting is still a budding field with low confidence so I'm not sure if there's much difference in skill between a forecaster's forecast and a model forecast.
  2. OSUmetstud
    Jma looks okay to start December too for what it's worth.
  3. OSUmetstud
    The seasonal didn't show a torchy December.
  4. OSUmetstud
    It probably wasn't there lol. There has been problems this morning.
  5. OSUmetstud
    Yeah we got 45" that month. I think there 2 other decent events beyond the big storm on November 20th. Must have just been cold and dry there, interesting.
  6. OSUmetstud
    Interesting, thanks. I figured bigger storms are harder to come by, but maybe a smattering of minor to moderate events could be done? How about something like November 2000?
  7. OSUmetstud
    Growing up in the lakes November can be very kind, even epic, but I wouldn't think a wintry November in New England is too unusual.
  8. OSUmetstud
    fake news!
  9. OSUmetstud
    I'd go for suppression and sheared mess to the southeast over cutter. The cold air dump from the -epo block and fast flow and mean trough position are decidely against a great lakes track.
  10. OSUmetstud
    The gdps has the same sfc cold bias but it more properly diagnoses warm noses in the 850 to 700mb layer.
  11. OSUmetstud
    The thing with the gfs that bothers me is its inability to see the warm nose. It's useless for mixed precip but that was a thing before and after the fv3 upgrade. It's cold bias is through the whole lower atmosphere.
  12. OSUmetstud
    If a winter storm warm sectors St. John's, lock it in.
  13. OSUmetstud
    https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/high-winds-leave-thousands-of-montrealers-in-the-dark/amp?__twitter_impression=true Wow
  14. OSUmetstud
    Strongest winds were on the canadian side as the low took a while to get going. Kingston to 107 km/h (66 mph) and Montreal to 105 km/h (65 mph) is not too shabby. Im still a bit suspicious of port colburne obs. I know its on the pier but the ob of 102g130 km/h is super intense and seemingly out of whack compared to other sites and the synoptics.
  15. OSUmetstud
    The wind was a medium type high wind event. Nothing particularly special. It was early in the year with leaves still on trees and saturated unfrozen ground That makes a big difference with re: damage and outages. The sieche was solid and i believe highest in a while (10 ft 6") but some of that is due to the very high antecedent lake levels (running 4 ft over low water datum).
  16. OSUmetstud
    My mom had a tree fall on the shed last night (West Seneca).
  17. OSUmetstud
    Yes, I remember that study. I don't believe the new FV3 has changed much, the GFS and GEM have been running toe to toe and considerably behind the ECMWF and UKMET for some time.
  18. OSUmetstud
    You breathlessly posted about the canadian in the three separate threads in the middle of the night last night.
  19. OSUmetstud
    Who is we?
  20. OSUmetstud
    00z Ukmet has the a strong storm out about 100 NM west of Bermuda at t+144.
  21. OSUmetstud
    Congrats bermuda
  22. OSUmetstud
    Meh. Some of these tracks appear to be from a different disturbance, too.
  23. OSUmetstud
    Yeah, development is more likely than not
  24. OSUmetstud
    Yeah, I'd say the chances are "elevated" re: climatology, but still very unlikely overall.
  25. OSUmetstud
    Boring. Most likely scenario.
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