OSUmetstud
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud
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Poppers hates when you reference ecmwf guidance.
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PDO you mean?
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Sorry this is the more direct comparison. I posted the wrong chart from the November run. Point remains, however.
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You can see a slight weakening in the Nino SST anomalies from the November to the December run and a movement west. Also of some interest is the possible return of the -AMO.
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Yeah I was just talking in general. The last euro seasonal has less dry anomalies in the Midwest and slightly less precip associated with the subtropical jet off the us east coast. New one is on the bottom.
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Yeah Id guess the same.
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You can see a reduction in the strength of the subtropical jet precipitation on the latest euro seasonal.
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I hope so, the patterns that have benefited you guys the past few years havent been the best here.
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We're doing alright, so much better than last year. This system was disappointing compared to what it could have been, just a bit too far offshore. Ended up with 4". We have about 32" on the year so far, with about 14 or 15" on the ground. Nice start to the season.
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That was a bit tongue in cheek. Models improve every year as you are aware. The 2018 euro is objectively better than the 2013. As is the GFS and anything else out ther.
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Ah yes the 2013 vintage euro. Very good year.
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Its starting now.
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Yep. I was basically putting a fork in it...but now I'm intrigued for here at least.
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man this pv over eastern Canada aint no joke.
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Yeah, I wondering how much of the northern stream energy was digging on the backside over Minnnesota.
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I think suppression is the most likely. I was fooling around.
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Are you speaking ex cathedra?
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Yes, it seems a bit better from what I've noticed, but I think its still there lol.
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GFS is almost unusable with storms like that. The same thing appears to be happening with the Day 4 low and my weather. ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/GEM/EPS etc. are all further northwest and a "hit" while the GFS is a clear miss to the southeast. The FV3 is a bit closer, but still a miss.
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Thanks.
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Where do people get the ECMWF mjo plots?
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Yes of course. Its early December and it's so far out so the chances are against it. But a reasonable threat I think for the time frame its at.
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We have a rising PNA and falling NAO during the potential storm time frame. Isnt that exactly what you want?
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Nice "shed" solution
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I get it. Its all good.
