OSUmetstud

Looks real. 941mb estimated on the latest dropsonde. Pressure rise of 12mb.

other folks having the same discussions lol.

Damn thing looks like shit compared to earlier. What a shame. Raw T down to 5.5 now lol.

I believe it was a cat 5 yes. The only evidence we are ever going to have is the satellite degradation in the past few hours before recon and the pressure. Because there's nothing else. So either they think that's enough or they don't in best track. And that's fine. I'm making a case. You don't have to like what I'm presenting. But you actually suggested there's no evidence. That's not true either. You just don't think the evidence im presenting is strong enough.

We all know it was a cat 5 was a tongue in cheek line, you're taking it too seriously lol.

Well this is your opinion and that's fine. The degradation in satellite presentation is literally an objective measure. It's almost fallen a full T number in the past 5 hours. They could still upgrade in best track.

so ****ing what? All intensity estimates are subjective. It's total gaslighting to suggest the pressure drop of 15mb from yesterday along with a degraded satellite intensity over the past 3-5 hours isn't at least some evidence that it was stronger a few hours ago before the plane arrived.

929mb on the sonde when the damn thing has dropped almost a full T number in objective dvorak in the past 5 hours lol. I know it aint much but there's something here: 223300 1425N 05051W 6958 03062 9910 +109 +100 013066 070 068 005 00 223330 1425N 05049W 6953 03048 9887 +109 +102 012072 073 070 004 00 223400 1425N 05047W 6957 03024 9850 +124 +093 012074 076 072 003 00 223430 1425N 05045W 6950 03004 9817 +124 +091 012081 082 074 006 00 223500 1425N 05043W 6935 02973 9736 +153 +086 010091 094 066 029 00 223530 1425N 05041W 6951 02900 9693 +134 +103 011112 119 111 077 00 223600 1425N 05039W 6978 02772 9607 +119 +133 359107 117 121 071 01 223630 1425N 05037W 6984 02647 9423 +183 +135 345067 096 134 035 00

Raw T has dropped to 5.8 now. It was 6.7 just a few hours ago. The IR sat looks obviously degraded and it looks like a hurricane in the midst of an ERC.

This is just objectively not true. Multiple SFMR readings of Cat 5 surface winds via recon yesterday Dropsonde yesterday supported Cat 5 intensity The satellite intensity has obviously degraded over the last few hours before recon entered The pressure dropped 15 mb since yesterday's recon (~929 mb) and now there's a double wind max, suggesting that intensity peaked before they entered.

It might be a 5 now. But it was stronger a few hours before the ERC started. Maybe they'll find it on the next pass.

We all know it was 5 earlier lol.

Thanks. I was wondering why they didn't drop in and do a center pass.

I'm not even sure why I typed CGs ( i.e cloud-to-ground). I wasn't even thinking CGs when I made the post. But, yes, just GLM remote sensing data. Lol yeah. All good. We do some lightning forecast for an energy client in Ontario so I know a little about the differences. Yeah the CG stuff I believe is detected by the land based network. The GLM is better at night because of this. Less interference from the sun.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-NOAA.shtml Can always go old school at the look at the HDOB file. It looks likes there two NOAA planes on the way.

Lightning CGs. It's just flashes. The GLM is an optical instrument. Doesn't know what type of lightning.

Lol

Enough. I'm a meteorologist who does this for a living offering my thoughts on what I think the most likely scenario is.

I'll be sure not to offer my thoughts next time on the most likely scenario since you and sno ski don't like it.

I dont think so. The central Atlantic ridge is tending to weak. I think it affects bermuda and exits right.

Every single member of the eps didn't make landfall. I'm not surprised that Eric compared a single op run to a hugo plot...and the storm still missed... Most of the guidance has the trough sitting on the east coast not cutting off that far southwest...and a trough in the position makes sense with a massive ridge over Ontario.

500mb is just all wrong for a US landfall. Theres a trough where you'd want a ridge and a ridge where'd you want a trough. So much has to change for it to happen. I'd put it at less than 10 percent...and that might be generous.

West or East? So anywhere?

It really doesnt look all that different. This include tropical storms. The other graphic just included hurricanes.

lol I didn't even look at that. I was just curious where from Day 5 onward it would look like. The average track error at Day 5 is 172 NM so it's not completely without basis. I mean you could run all storms from the current point and see what it looks like if you want.