Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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Light flurries here. 33.5
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Wet snow is also falling in the higher elevations of the Poconos above about 1100’.
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Mt. Holly cancels the WSW for Warren and Morris Counties and issues a WWA for these counties. A new snow map has been issued.
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Latest Mt. Holly snowmap
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There’s a lot of reasons to sell it.
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Looks like it does.
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Morris County? How about Warren County? That’s another one. I think this reflects the difficulty inherent in the technology they use in terms of issuing a warning for part of the County. The idea is for the user to look at location specific forecasts which do account for elevation and how that impacts local snow amounts.
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This is their latest snow map. I am not so sure about snow amounts of 6-10” as far south as I-78 (I am assuming that refers to places west of I287). That might be a stretch. In any case the map does do a good job of matching elevated areas to increased snow amounts.
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Is there a big difference in elevation there?
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12z HREF
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If you see significant snow it will be overnight and into tomorrow. The precip today in NJ was modeled as being rain which is what you are seeing. The place to be is where the banding sets up. We’ll have a clearer idea on that later. The thinking has been and continues to be that will be at places along and north of I80/I287.
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This is a screenshot of the IVT currently positioned over central NJ. Precip amounts in that area near Bridgewater are over 0.20” in places.
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Going to be a crazy gradient by you with this event. Do you know what your elevation is?
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This one will go down as a prototypical elevation event. Places like Boston and the CT River Valley will get much less than surrounding higher terrain. In the Boston area the place to be will be north and west of 128. Like you said coastal areas don’t look too good with this event.
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Depends on where the IVT sets up shop. Most models have the heavier precip with it falling as snow in the Poconos and Catskills. For the LV it depends upon precip rates and amounts. As you said we are in a no man’s land being too far west to see much from the synoptic precip from SLP over the Atlantic and too far south and too low in elevation to see much snow from the IVT.
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Looks like the nascent stage of the IVT is setting up across western NJ and SE PA. Light rain and a few melting snowflakes falling here. 34.5
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Light drizzle 35.6
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It’s looking like there will be a sharp gradient from south to north with snow amounts. It looks this will be approximately from Routes 46 and 10 and 287 and amounts will increase quickly with elevation as you go north from there. The snow will mainly fall Monday night into Tuesday in those areas.
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There is also light snow coming down in southern PA down near the MD border.
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Good analysis however it is important to note the difference in the synoptics between this potential event and Jan 2016. With this one it will be highly dependent on exactly where the IVT sets up and also elevation. Jan 2016 was a much different setup.
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Are you ready for another 8” + up there? The Poconos seem to be the big winner recently.
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It’s going to be an interesting few days while we find out who will be dead wrong.
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Mt. Holly is placing more weight on the IVT. They referenced this in their AFD and it reflects on this map. Upton has a different take on that.
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Euro is going all in with the IVT. The other models are more focused on the synoptic scale snows which would favor NE.
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How about the 3K NAM?
