Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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Warm nose at 850mb and unfavorable boundary layer were too much to overcome. -
As expected by virtually all of the models snow has been very hard to come by with this event. Props to the CMC suite for seeing this from the beginning. The Euro did a good job of picking up the banding signature that set up from SW to NE across my area and over to northern NJ. Rain here most of the night with a temp of 37.8. Temps have been steady here. 0.82” so far. I have not seen any snow on the traffic cams that I have looked at along I380/I84 in NE PA.
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Looks to be an interesting morning in areas with elevation above 500 - 700 feet near and to the north and west of I78/I287. Recent HRRR runs are setting up for a surprise dump in those areas.
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A review of the soundings on the 12z HRRR shows very nicely the features you are speaking of. You will need elevation (as always) to get the best results from this. I would agree places along I80 and north would be best positioned to see this. I also like the fact that there is no strong southerly flow at 925mb to impede this.
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Need to get the RGEM / GGEM in on this. Not happening as of now.
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Ensembles have been fairly consistently north of the OP runs with this event. Another red flag going against it producing much of any snow near the city. The focus has been mainly on the I84 corridor.
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Ant - We all have access to the Pivotal site for the basic models with the subscription option for the advanced features. I even posted when they offered $20 off for the year earlier this month. I am sure that those who are interested are following it there.
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18z GFS…lol
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1.5” new OTG. Light snow with visibility of 1 mile. 27/24
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Light snow here with visibility of one mile.
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Steady light snow. Visibility 1 mile. 33/19
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The term “Winter Storm” covers the whole gamut of precip types that one of these events can produce. For that reason alone I think it’s a good term to use.
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The orographic effect will squeeze out the additional moisture up there.
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Very light snow. Visibility 4 miles. 24/18
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It’s absolutely true (from NBC10).
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The state (PA) is announcing restrictions on virtually all of the highways south of I80 to exclude most trucks and all school buses. The school districts are now virtually all closing for tomorrow. Interesting to see how this decision process is playing out.
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They closed all the schools in Philly for tomorrow on account of the impending storm down there.
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18z Euro has run with 1–2” across the area and more down south across central/southern NJ.
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At the rate the models are going I think 1-2” might be a good number for areas along 78. If anything the models are telling us that forecasted amounts above that to the north of 78 are looking more and more likely to bust.
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Strongly agree. I am expecting those amounts here as well. Depending on future model runs Mt. Holly may have to revisit expected snow totals north of I78 in NJ and PA.
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Now we need the RGEM to do better.
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FWIW the 0z HRRR is a big hit across the metro area and northern and central NJ.
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Moderate snow here currently. The echoes in the Allentown area are the real deal. We had light snow earlier which had diminished to a light mix. Precip picked up again in the last 30 minutes and with it the flip back to snow. 25/23
