powderfreak

I-89 looks fun near J.Spin's in Waterbury. Bet that would be a fun ride from here to Concord, NH.

About 4" so far eyeballing it.

00z GFS continues the swath of heavy snow. Such a large geographic area as modeled.

My forecast has been for 8-14”… I think it gets a bit warm tomorrow afternoon below 1500ft that may lead to some lower ratios. The first part should be cold though.

This is going to be an event. We don’t get models painting widespread 10-20” amounts straight through the heart of New England very often. The amount of land that accumulates 6” or more could be significant. Freezing rain with the cold air drain, sleet, significant QPF. Should be a an interesting late-season storm.

HRRR meanwhile continues to be a huge snowstorm for Mitch and Backedge through 18 hours.

Torched aloft. Sleet gets close to here. As soon as the coastal really tries to get going it dynamically cools and collapses SE fast.

Still like that GFL-RUT axis to North Conway or Jackson over towards Tamarack for a jackpot.

Thats aggressive.

Every model stealing my snow now .

I wonder with almost due south 60kt 850mb jet if we see mixing further north than progged.

Someone in central NNE gets smoked. Like a GFL-RUT-IZG axis?

Need to get just high enough and into cold air to make do with the high precip anomalies. Feels like a Pacific coast winter. Eventually you hit an elevation where the rain turns to snow.

The 12km NAM positive snow depth map is pretty crazy. I think we have a good chance of a healthy 6”+ snowfall when the progs look like this. It will change and move around but it will be hard to see less than 6” with the current look.

Agreed. 00z HRRR positive snow depth gains map. 00z 3km NAM positive snow depth gains.

I looked at the past 10 years the other day, it is a wild ride. From worst ever in 2015-16, to monster year in 2016-17… the variability is wild for measuring in the same place. 2014-15… 290” 2015-16… 156” 2016-17… 375” 2017-18… 264” 2018-19… 308” (*Under-reported due to snow reporting changes and misses.) 2019-20… COVID early closure, data incomplete. 2020-21… 218” 2021-22… 225” 2022-23… 221” 2023-24… 246” as of 3/21.

We went 12 days without a full inch at the plot in mid-winter. That is incredibly hard to do. Now every measurement is multiple inches.

Ha my bad. I use this, change location to Mount Mansfield and explore the options. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=btv

On the upper Toll Road. This past multi-week cycle was largely upslope driven. There have been synoptic episodes at times, but multiple CAA intrusions into moist, higher than normal PWAT air masses is going to precipitate efficiently in the NW flow zones. Blocked and unblocked flow, but either way it has dumped over the Spine. Blocked SE flow on front side followed by NW flow can absolutely load the upper east side. Upslope flow with spring moisture levels has historically led to snowier (higher QPF) events than expected in the mountains. In the end, regardless of location it has been the longest high elevation observation in the state of Vermont. NWS has an elaborate camera set up on “the Stake.” Almost 70 years of observations to compare to at the exact same spot.

Another 8” at the plot between 4pm yesterday and 12pm today. Couldn’t check it earlier because of lift wind holds. Multiple lifts never opened today, but co-worker and friend Andre took on the mission and traveled uphill and a couple miles laterally to get the snowfall reading off the Gondola from the Sunrise lift. It just wants to snow. 87” depth at the Co-Op Stake! Bottomed out at 40” in early March… and have since gained about four feet in snowpack depth since then. Does the hill hit 100” on the ground?!

Ha all joking aside, of course less phasing is probably the way to go which would push it all ESE a bit. It makes sense synoptically. Typical Euro and NAM bias of over-amped at this lead.

Stop trying to steal my snow .

Huh.

That looks about right. Fun stuff.

Hey I’ll take the bait… it’s been a fun day weather wise for some. Not a reflection on the snow total amounts, but it’s more interesting than 90% of the time this winter. Summer thunderstorms and downpours, or snow squalls and flash freezes, weather junkies like myself get a kick out of dynamic events.