powderfreak

3” at the mountain, snowing hard.

9.7F currently. 10F at MVL. It’s mid-winter outside, snow depth is limited at home but 3” of settled powder covering the grass helps with the aesthetics. Higher elevations see snow depth escalate rapidly.

I find the mesoscale stuff in the northern mountains to be the most interesting type of weather. The atmosphere is fluid and Thursday is like watching a shallow ocean wave move over rocks, from NW to SE across the region… the areas with the most churn as the ripple moves through should see the best results in the northeast (the northern terrain).

You have to feel fairly confident from SW NH to Dendrite to Dryslot.

I missed that too, thanks. I honestly am more interested in that arctic front on Thursday. There’s something aesthetically pleasing about snow squalls and wind ahead of an arctic airmass. The SW flow out of the Great Lakes region pools moisture ahead of these FROPAs, then the front drags it over the terrain before drying out again. Looks like a decent early season arctic boundary. That FROPA means business.

The bottom is falling out up here as soon as the sun went down. Feels like it’ll be single digits in like two hours. 19/8 and cratering. I was thinking a nice cold night could help the battle zones.

That seems a little aggressive but might be splitting hairs on 2-5” vs 4-6” in our area.

Welcome to Currier and Ives.

A large area of light snow across the north... with a narrow zone of heavy snow near the gradient. That feels like the right outcome. It's crazy that gradient remains in question and will have such a big effect on sensible impacts.

Just rots over 495.

Elevation at that same latitude would certainly be favored. What a legendary snow spot Winter Hill is… decades of wins in winter events (proven on the forums) compared to surrounding areas. Hopefully it can go isothermal paste for your current spot. How many times is “the Pike” the boundary zone over the years? Could be another one.

Your area is probably the most interesting of anyone on the forum. That southern Middlesex County zone has been consistently modeled as the battle ground on all guidance. Like could certainly be 8-12" of paste, or like 2-4" of 4:1 slop.

HRRR extended has trended that way too like the NAM.

I would think so as well. The base is very solid for it's depth.

Maybe more boundary layer temp dependent?

About an inch here. Honestly seems like more than at 1500ft… half inch there.

Good burst of snow this morning.

Pretty good consensus on somewhere in Middlesex or Worcester County, north of the mix line, is where the best chances are at a jackpot.

True, good point.

Condescend this lol. It’s all good Ginxy, I respect your opinion. I just think we have too much info now and it skews our perception.

We benefited from it for sure. Say you see 12z and a storm is tracking in location X…. then we have to wait until 00z and its only 30 miles north… it seems like it’s making small movements. What we didn’t see was 18z that was 50 miles south… then 80 miles north 6 hours later…now we see an intermediary run and think the model is all over the place.

All a model needs to do is nail a few winter events from 4 days out and it’s enshrined. I also think the other models were worse or seemed worse, and they’ve caught up. Running the Euro 4 times a day hasn’t helped. We see twice as many solutions as we used to back then with the model. The flip side is I can think of numerous events it was way too generous with QPF in snowfalls on the western and northern side. What was that event where it was gung ho on 20-36” for NYC and even into NNE for days… only to get completely shafted… 2011? Or Feb 2013?

There are a lot of candidates for posts of the year.

Not to mention we’d remember the 6 days out of 365 days in a calendar year when the Euro showed more snow than other models and it was right. But no one cared when its QPF forecast missed in early June. A lot of cherry picking in memories rooted around snowfall events.