powderfreak

This summed up today. Fog, mist, freezing rain and sleet. Temperatures hovering around 30F at all elevations. Glazed donut. Low visibility. After 9” yesterday. And possibly 60F tomorrow.

This is a phenomenal photo. Hope you have that high-res.

The waterwheels are always turning.

Damage.

The secondary spike in depth is common this time of year. Sometimes it happens later in April, other times in March, but there’s usually a rebound in depth after the first real spring melt. 9” at 3,000ft on Mansfield for the initial wave of precip. The next wave tomorrow morning is going to be IP/ZR/RN.

That is absolutely wild, ha. 9” at the mountain.

Models did a good job yesterday with the narrow zone through the heart of BTV’s area. Tapered quick up north and mixed down south.

6.5” here.

Solid AFD from BTV... noting a few spots may approach Ice Storm Warning criteria. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 655 PM EDT Friday...Based on crnt sfc obs and radar trends have delayed arrival of steadier precip by 1 to 3 hours, otherwise rest of fcst in good shape. Crntly still pretty dry in the llvls with sfc dwpts in the single digits to mid teens, while cloud hghts are btwn 7000 and 12000 feet agl. Initial returns on radar have only resulted in a few flakes in the Potsdam area per webcams. However, expect deeper moisture and better lift over central NY to converge with additional moisture angling east/southeast over the Great Lakes to quickly enhance precip returns from west to east acrs our cwa btwn 9 PM and midnight. Guidance continues to support favorable parameters for narrow band of enhanced heavier qpf btwn midnight and 9 AM Sat, associated with strong 850mb fgen forcing with quasi stationary west to east boundary draped acrs our fa. Also, pretty impressive lightning display associated with elevated instability and embedded s/w energy upstream over the central/northern Great Lakes, which wl push into our cwa, helping to enhance hourly precip rates on Saturday morning. Have noted the HREF hrly ensemble mean snowfall rates of 0.50 to 0.75" btwn midnight and 10 AM acrs northern NY into central/northern VT. This correlates well with GFS/NAM/RAP/HRRR all showing a 4 to 8 hour window of 0.60 to 0.80 QPF mostly in the form of snow mainly along and north of a Malone to BTV to MPV line, while a messy mix of snow/sleet and freezing rain is expected south. Generally 2 to 6 inches of snow anticipated by sunrise north with a dusting to 2 inches south, along with ice accumulation of 0.05 to 0.15". By midday, better forcing and axis of enhanced qpf should drop south over our central/southern cwa, where additional ice accumulation is likely thru Sat night. Always a little concerning for additional snowfall accumulation during the daytime hours in the valleys if the strongest forcing/best lift and associated heavy precip rates are not directly overhead and the old 540DAM thickness line is hovering near the International Border. This could result in sleet/mixed precip a bit further north and at the same time we wl have to watch drier air advecting into our northern zones, which can uncut the better moisture, especially on Sat aftn. Its extremely challenging to determine ice accumulation/impacts with late March sun angle, marginal temps in the 28-33F range, and heavy precip rates at times, which can limit ice accretion. With that said, I feel given the impressive qpf expected acrs parts of central/southern VT and Dacks (Eastern Rutland, Eastern Addison, Orange, and Windsor Counties and Western Essex, NY), a few areas could approach ice storm warning criteria by 15z Sunday with localized ice amounts >0.50" especially above 800 feet. We wl continue to monitor and pass along potential to midshift for potential upgrades if necessary.

Yup. Razor edge here lol.

That is frigid. Big ice for eastern slopes.

Always fear the warm nose.

The hill filled right back in after the 16” measured over 48 hours at the upper mountain plot. Over 90” depth at the co-op stake again.

Upslope is still going this morning. 14” in 48 hours at 3,000ft and counting.

Interesting the COOP depth only increased 5” from 85” to 90” (the Mansfield Stake) after today’s snow. The COOP depth is at 3,900ft. The High Road data point is at 3,014ft…. so almost 1K lower. This is where 12” has been recorded and depth has increased by 10”…. from 57” to 66-67”. 5” depth increase at the COOP on the upper Toll Road, vs an increase of 10” on the Gondola side, at a lower elevation. Interesting… Light winds, so drifting wasn’t an issue. 57” after the first inch yesterday. Then 67” after the next 11 inches of snowfall, including some settling over the 24-hour period.

That’s a good choice. I think if someone were to get a surprise tonight it would be Jay.

Upslope pulse but has been weakening on models since last night. Jay looks favored? Thinking 1-3” Mansfield and 2-4” Jay? We are up to 12-13” since yesterday morning at 3,000ft. Wild. 1” through 1:40pm yesterday. Then 9” from 1:40pm to 10am this morning. The numbering is whack, it’s the value under the line. Then 2.5” from 10am until 4pm.

Lol… since 1:30pm yesterday. W. T. F.

I think the Lookout Snow Plot was low by like a factor of 3 last night. Healthy boot deep pow day out there.

Winter.

Heavy snow the past hour. Whitened right back up despite a warm-ish ground. Mountain picked up 4” at Lookout Plot and is likely over 5” at High Road Plot now as it was pacing an inch ahead through 3pm.

Lean into a joke once in a while… always so serious.

How many times have we disproven the warm ground doesn’t matter if it’s snowing steadily and hard? We’ll get May accums if it’s ripping 0.1”/hr water.

It literally just happened yesterday a couple counties north of him.

How did it easily accumulate just north of you yesterday during the daylight hours? The warm ground didn’t care… it snowed moderately to heavily.