powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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Yeah that’s the time to make hay. I think in a general sense it’s 2-4” tomorrow morning, then 12 hours of light mixed precip, followed by 6-12” on Friday....mainly in like 6 hours. Call it 8-16” with some mix sandwiched in.
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Oh we definitely ping. Freezing drizzle and ZR too. It’s real dry in the snow growth zone tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.... I could see .25-.5” QPF as mix here on the edge of the mid level dry slot. I bet it mixes to Canada in light returns. I think we get 12 hours of mixed, pellets, grains, ZR, etc between the better periods of lift. The craziest part is even taking that out the models have another 1-1.5” QPF.
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...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible.
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We need more posters like yourself, ha. You are in Charlotte, right? The Champlain Valley looks to take a crosshair on this one too. Northerly surface drain leading to Champlain Valley Convergence under the mid-level lift could be fun.
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Yeah we get plenty of snowfall, but 12"+ events are much more common in SNE. I've been hoping for double digits, so anything 10" or greater in this will more than satisfy that itch. I could still see more mixing than expected or lower ratios bringing 8" of the densest white material ever... but I just like a nice frozen QPF bomb. We don't do those frozen heavy precip events like SNE does.
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I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop but this keeps trending wetter and wetter. Pretty much all the models from the GFS/GGEM/ICON/EURO have 1.75” or more QPF frozen. GFS and GGEM are 2”+. Maybe it does go 12-18”.
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This is what you dream about. Each run as you get closer the EURO keeps ramping it up. Up to about 1.75-2” QPF now.
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lol this 12z GFS panel is obscene. Maxes out at 1.0" QPF in 6 hours in that meso-band. Frontogenic forcing is insane. The sounding from 6z looked like a nuclear bomb in UVV's in the midlevels over BTV. I know it isn't good for most of the forum, but those deepening lows riding between BOS and PWM usually are our best snow producers.
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Yeah it was still cranking!
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We hump the 3k. Not even done when the model runs out.
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I expect plenty of sarcastic anger in here over the next 36-48 hours. Haters gon hate. I completely get it.
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6z EURO ticked a bit cooler up here. What a shellacking on Friday. Hard to hate this look.
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Winter 2020 New England Banter and General Obs
powderfreak replied to CapturedNature's topic in New England
-SN moving through with the CAA and winds picking up from the NW. 26F at MVL. -
Probably just fine. They do it all winter .
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Certainly going to be a tight gradient with that Friday wave.
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Yeah for sure. Ping and freezing rain. Best was Northern Champlain Valley to Southern Quebec flats. That run was like 11-12” of snow on 1.55” water. I’ve got more a QPF fetish than snow total haha. Drop an inch plus frozen and I’ll take it however it comes.
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Oof at that 00z Euro run. Keeps ramping up QPF. Friday’s wave is real juicy. The mid level frontogenisis should have someone up here just getting destroyed. That run was a healthy 12-18” for a fairly wide swath.
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Yankees have a ton of pressure on them this season... you must win when you add Cole to that team. Anything other than a World Series is a complete failure.
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They got rid of Price too! Wow, but at the same time, if they get under the luxury tax this season, they could offer Mookie a nice $35 AAV in free agency. They do get a lot more freedom if they punt this season.
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I still feel like this is a day 3-4 rug pulled out event to some extent. It’s still a long way away for the second round. I’d do 4-8” Valley here at home and 8-12” Mtn 48-hr total right now for a first guess.
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I mean, all downhill from here.
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The GEFS agrees with you. The Friday wave is snowier further southeast like the NAM. The GEFS mean now has 5-8” starting to tickle the Mass/NH border.
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We want to lock the REGGIE... good lawd.
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I don't know why you do this. Your views and personal expectations for the storm are your own and fine... but don't try to pass it off as if a specific model shows it. If you are going to say "this is what the NAM shows..." then hopefully that model actually shows it. Hopefully one of these runs crushes your area with ice. I'm rooting for you.
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18z GFS still by far the warmest... mixes all the way to Montreal as it rips that warm front way north with the first event.
